# Industrial Market Study Research

## Purpose

- Supports `skills/industrial/industrial-market-study.md`
- Intended for acquisitions teams, owner-operators, and analysts screening U.S. industrial and logistics opportunities

## U.S.-Only Assumptions

- Geography is the United States
- Focus is industrial and logistics real estate, not owner-user operating company real estate
- Core subtypes are bulk distribution, shallow-bay, flex industrial, light industrial, and select infill logistics
- Market context assumes post-pandemic supply normalization, elevated but improving vacancy, and continued importance of logistics access, labor, and building quality

## Source Table

| Source | Publisher | URL | Publish Date | Access Date | Source Type | Notes |
|--------|-----------|-----|--------------|-------------|-------------|-------|
| Industrial Space Demand Forecast, First Quarter 2026 | NAIOP | https://www.naiop.org/research-and-publications/research-reports/reports/industrial-space-demand-forecast-first-quarter-2026/ | 2026-03 | 2026-04-22 | Institutional research | National absorption and vacancy outlook |
| U.S. Industrial Real Estate Market Indicators | JLL | https://www.jll.com/en-us/insights/market-dynamics/industrial-market-statistics-trends | 2026-01 | 2026-04-22 | Institutional research | National vacancy, rent, leasing, deliveries |
| U.S. Industrial Tenant Demand Study | JLL | https://www.jll.com/en-us/insights/industrial-tenant-demand-study | 2025-08-13 | 2026-04-22 | Institutional research | Tenant behavior and demand by user type |
| U.S. Industrial MarketBeat | Cushman & Wakefield | https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/united-states/insights/us-marketbeats/us-industrial-marketbeat | 2026-04 | 2026-04-22 | Institutional research | Q1 2026 absorption, leasing, building preferences |
| U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook 2025 - Industrial & Logistics | CBRE | https://www.cbre.com/insights/books/us-real-estate-market-outlook-2025/industrial | 2025-01 | 2026-04-22 | Institutional research | Demand drivers, flight to quality, 3PL focus |
| Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales | U.S. Census Bureau | https://www.census.gov/retail/ecommerce.html | 2026-03-10 | 2026-04-22 | Primary government source | E-commerce share of U.S. retail sales |
| Transborder Freight Data Annual Report: 2025 | Bureau of Transportation Statistics | https://www.bts.gov/newsroom/transborder-freight-data-annual-report-2025-0 | 2026-03 | 2026-04-22 | Primary government source | Cross-border freight values and modes |
| Latest Supply Chain and Freight Indicators | Bureau of Transportation Statistics | https://www.bts.gov/freight-indicators | 2026-04 | 2026-04-22 | Primary government source | Port and freight performance indicators |
| Applied Automation in the Warehouse Boosts Value Across Stakeholders | Prologis Research | https://www.prologis.com/insights-news/research/applied-automation-warehouse-boosts-value-across-stakeholders | 2026-04 | 2026-04-22 | Quasi-primary market participant research | Automation-ready building requirements |
| The Inland Empire Leads the Nation in Large Industrial Leases for 2025 | CBRE | https://www.cbre.com/press-releases/the-inland-empire-leads-the-nation-in-large-industrial-leases-for-2025 | 2026-02-01 | 2026-04-22 | Institutional market research | Large-lease geography and user demand evidence |

## Key Findings

- Industrial market study should start with **subtype fit**, not just metro-level vacancy. Bulk distribution, shallow-bay, flex, and infill logistics serve different tenant pools and require different competitive sets.
- National conditions improved into 2026, but the market is still bifurcated: newer product with stronger specs is outperforming older inventory, especially where automation, power, and trailer storage matter.
- Leasing and absorption are increasingly concentrated in markets with strong inland logistics positions, intermodal access, labor depth, and resilient supply-chain routing.
- Tenant demand is not uniform across user groups. JLL shows weaker warehouse and distribution requirement counts in some segments while manufacturing demand improved and 3PL activity stayed important.
- Market study should explicitly evaluate **building functionality** and **replacement competitiveness**. A well-located but obsolete building can underperform newer space even in a healthy submarket.
- E-commerce and North American freight patterns still matter, but they are not sufficient on their own. Cross-border flows, nearshoring, and inventory strategy affect industrial demand alongside local leasing fundamentals.

## Benchmark and Formula Decisions

- Use national statistics only as a directional overlay. Default to local submarket conditions whenever available.
- Include a local market study structure covering:
  - vacancy
  - net absorption
  - new deliveries and pipeline
  - asking vs effective rents
  - recent large leases and buyer activity
  - logistics access and labor availability
- Do not hard-code a single "healthy vacancy" threshold across all industrial subtypes. Instead:
  - treat lower vacancy as generally supportive
  - note that shallow-bay, infill, and modern bulk can clear at different vacancy levels
  - flag elevated vacancy only when paired with weak leasing, high pipeline, or obsolete product
- Treat clear-height expectations as market- and subtype-sensitive, but recognize that occupier demand has moved toward 32-foot-plus and, in large modern bulk space, frequently 36-foot to 40-foot clear.

## Conflicting Source Resolution

- JLL and Cushman report slightly different national vacancy and absorption figures because of timing, market coverage, and methodology. The skill should not present these as contradictions; it should use them to reinforce direction rather than overfit a single national number.
- CBRE market outlook commentary is older than the 2026 quarterly reports, so it should guide structural themes, not override fresher national statistics.
- Government freight and e-commerce data should be treated as macro-demand support, not direct rent-growth inputs.

## Edge Cases and Red Flags

- Buildings with strong locations but outdated specifications can screen well on market stats while remaining weak on tenant replaceability.
- Flex industrial assets need separate treatment from pure warehouse product because office finish, parking, and smaller-bay leasing patterns alter the comp set.
- Port-adjacent and border-adjacent markets may outperform or underperform national demand trends based on trade policy and congestion conditions.
- Older infill product can outperform newer suburban bulk inventory in certain last-mile markets; market study must compare like to like.

## Open Questions

- Whether future versions should include a dedicated cold storage overlay
- Whether future versions should split manufacturing-oriented industrial from logistics-oriented industrial in the core market-study prompt
- Whether power-availability screening should move from physical inspection into market study for certain high-load users
