# Industrial IC Memo Writer Research

## Purpose

- Supports `skills/industrial/industrial-ic-memo-writer.md`
- Intended for users synthesizing diligence, underwriting, and financing work into an investment-committee-ready memo

## U.S.-Only Assumptions

- Focus is U.S. industrial acquisitions
- The memo is for internal investment decision-making, not lender submission or securities disclosure
- The memo should reflect industrial sector logic rather than reuse multifamily committee framing

## Source Table

| Source | Publisher | URL | Publish Date | Access Date | Source Type | Notes |
|--------|-----------|-----|--------------|-------------|-------------|-------|
| Industrial Space Demand Forecast, First Quarter 2026 | NAIOP | https://www.naiop.org/research-and-publications/research-reports/reports/industrial-space-demand-forecast-first-quarter-2026/ | 2026-03 | 2026-04-22 | Institutional research | Market-demand backdrop |
| U.S. Industrial Real Estate Market Indicators | JLL | https://www.jll.com/en-us/insights/market-dynamics/industrial-market-statistics-trends | 2026-01 | 2026-04-22 | Institutional research | National operating backdrop |
| U.S. Industrial Tenant Demand Study | JLL | https://www.jll.com/en-us/insights/industrial-tenant-demand-study | 2025-08-13 | 2026-04-22 | Institutional research | Tenant-demand framing |
| U.S. Industrial MarketBeat | Cushman & Wakefield | https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/united-states/insights/us-marketbeats/us-industrial-marketbeat | 2026-04 | 2026-04-22 | Institutional research | Demand and building-quality framing |
| U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook 2025 - Industrial & Logistics | CBRE | https://www.cbre.com/insights/books/us-real-estate-market-outlook-2025/industrial | 2025-01 | 2026-04-22 | Institutional research | Structural demand drivers |
| 2025 Annual Report | Prologis / SEC | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001045609/000119312526115137/d72446dars.pdf | 2026-03 | 2026-04-22 | Primary public filing | Rollover, occupancy, and market positioning evidence |
| Q4 2025 and Full Year 2025 Earnings Release | Prologis / SEC | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045609/000119312526017256/pld-ex99_1.htm | 2026-01 | 2026-04-22 | Primary public filing | Turnover cost and portfolio metrics |
| 2025 Annual Report | STAG Industrial / SEC | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001479094/000147909426000009/stag-20251231.htm | 2026-02 | 2026-04-22 | Primary public filing | Lease term and expiration context |
| Commercial Real Estate Lending Activity Increases in Q1 2025 | CBRE | https://www.cbre.com/press-releases/commercial-real-estate-lending-activity-increases-in-q1-2025 | 2025-04 | 2026-04-22 | Institutional capital-markets research | Debt-market framing for IC recommendations |
| 2025 Commercial Mortgage Program Fact Sheet | MetLife Investment Management | https://investments.metlife.com/content/dam/metlifecom/us/investments/pdf/2025-commercial-mortgage-program-fact-sheet.pdf | 2025-10 | 2026-04-22 | Quasi-primary lender source | Illustrative lender fit for institutional-quality industrial |

## Key Findings

- An industrial IC memo needs a different decision spine than a multifamily IC memo. The critical questions are:
  - Is the building functionally competitive?
  - How durable is the rent roll?
  - What is the release risk at rollover?
  - How much capital is needed to maintain or improve leasing competitiveness?
  - What financing execution is realistic given lease profile and building quality?
- Industrial committee memos should clearly distinguish:
  - market story
  - asset story
  - lease story
  - capital story
- The strongest investment theses in industrial are often tied to logistics position, irreplaceable infill access, modern functionality, or embedded mark-to-market on a releasable building.
- The weakest theses are the ones that confuse general industrial optimism with asset-specific durability.

## Benchmark and Formula Decisions

- The memo should include dedicated sections for:
  - subtype and building function
  - logistics access and labor drivers
  - lease rollover and WALT
  - tenant concentration and replaceability
  - downtime / TI / LC risk
  - financing fit
  - industrial-specific go / no-go risks
- Recommendations should distinguish:
  - proceed
  - proceed with mitigations
  - proceed only at revised basis
  - do not proceed
- The memo should always state which assumptions are market-level vs asset-specific.

## Conflicting Source Resolution

- National industrial optimism from major brokerages should not dominate the recommendation if the asset has weak lease durability or physical obsolescence.
- Public REIT disclosures provide useful context for what sophisticated owners monitor, but private acquisitions may require more conservative downside framing.
- The IC memo should treat financing feedback as a constraint, not an afterthought.

## Edge Cases and Red Flags

- Assets with strong current yield but poor releasability can look attractive until the first rollover
- Single-tenant assets with short remaining term need explicit basis-risk discussion
- Flex assets require careful explanation of office-finish burden, parking, and tenant pool depth
- Build-to-suit or highly specialized product may warrant a narrower buyer and lender universe than headline market reports suggest

## Open Questions

- Whether future versions should include separate single-tenant and multi-tenant IC memo templates
- Whether future versions should include an appendix standard for lease rollover scenario tables
- Whether future versions should connect to a shared risk-scoring framework for multi-sector CRE
