Volume 30, Issue 1 e17141
RESEARCH ARTICLE
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Declining coupling between vegetation and drought over the past three decades

Delong Li

Corresponding Author

Delong Li

Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Correspondence

Delong Li and Lei Shen, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.

Email: lidelong@igsnrr.ac.cn and shenl@igsnrr.ac.cn

Contribution: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, ​Investigation, Methodology, Software, Visualization, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing

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Li An

Li An

Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Contribution: Data curation, Software, Writing - review & editing

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Shuai Zhong

Shuai Zhong

Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Contribution: Formal analysis, Software, Writing - review & editing

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Lei Shen

Corresponding Author

Lei Shen

Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences, CAS-HEC, Islamabad, Pakistan

Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China, Beijing, China

Correspondence

Delong Li and Lei Shen, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.

Email: lidelong@igsnrr.ac.cn and shenl@igsnrr.ac.cn

Contribution: Conceptualization, Funding acquisition, ​Investigation, Supervision, Writing - review & editing

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Shuyao Wu

Shuyao Wu

Center for Yellow River Ecosystem Products, Shandong University, Qingdao, Shandong, China

Contribution: Data curation, ​Investigation, Writing - review & editing

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First published: 10 January 2024

Abstract

Droughts have been implicated as the main driver behind recent vegetation die-off and are projected to drive greater mortality under future climate change. Understanding the coupling relationship between vegetation and drought has been of great global interest. Currently, the coupling relationship between vegetation and drought is mainly evaluated by correlation coefficients or regression slopes. However, the optimal drought timescale of vegetation response to drought, as a key indicator reflecting vegetation sensitivity to drought, has largely been ignored. Here, we apply the optimal drought timescale identification method to examine the change in coupling between vegetation and drought over the past three decades (1982–2015) with long-term satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index data. We find substantial increasing response of vegetation to drought timescales globally, and the correlation coefficient between vegetation and drought under optimal drought timescale overall declines between 1982 and 2015. This decrease in vegetation–drought coupling is mainly observed in regions with water deficit, although its initial correlation is relatively high. However, vegetation in water-surplus regions, with low coupling in earlier stages, is prone to show an increasing trend. The observed changes may be driven by the increasing trend of atmospheric CO2. Our findings highlight more pressing drought risk in water-surplus regions than in water-deficit regions, which advances our understanding of the long-term vegetation–drought relationship and provides essential insights for mapping future vegetation sensitivity to drought under changing climate conditions.

1 INTRODUCTION

Droughts can restrict vegetation growth (Jiao, Wang, et al., 2021; Wang et al., 2021) and even cause widespread tree mortality, which undermines ecosystem stability (He et al., 2018) and has a negative impact on land carbon sinks (Reichstein, 2013; Schwalm et al., 2012, 2017). The association between vegetation and drought has long been recognized as a critical component of ecosystem vulnerability (Li et al., 2018). As global warming is expected to increase drought frequency and severity (Dai, 2013), the impact of different types of droughts on vegetation is unparalleled (Gampe et al., 2021; Jiao, Williams, et al., 2021; Xu et al., 2019; Zhang et al., 2021). Therefore, it is essential to understand the current vegetation–drought coupling and its evolutionary pattern to effectively predict future forest risk.

Drought is an indicator with multiscalar features (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010), and the cumulative and time-lagged effects of drought on vegetation dynamics are widespread (Wen et al., 2019). Over the past decade, there has been an increase in studies examining vegetation sensitivity to droughts (He et al., 2018; Jiao, Wang, et al., 2021; Seddon et al., 2016). Present vegetation–drought coupling studies concentrate on two key topics, regardless of their definitions and spatial scales. In fact, plants can absorb water from past precipitation stored in deeper unsaturated soils or groundwater (Miguez-Macho & Fan, 2021). The response of vegetation to drought is often not due to water deficit during the current month but rather due to water scarcity that lasts months or even years. Therefore, vegetation–drought coupling assessments that do not consider timescales (or fixed drought timescales) will impede our understanding of how vegetation responds to drought to some extent. Vicente-Serrano et al.'s (2013) pioneering work found that vegetation responds to drought at different characteristic timescales across regions and biomes. The length of the drought timescale at which drought has the greatest impact on vegetation is considered a useful metric for quantifying vegetation sensitivity to droughts (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2013). The response time represented by drought timescales itself reflects the resistance and resilience of vegetation to drought (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2013). Longer drought timescales indicate stronger memory effects (Liu et al., 2018; Seddon et al., 2016), which may reduce the impact of more recent water deficits and reduce vegetation sensitivity to drought. In contrast, shorter drought timescales imply that vegetation reacts more quickly in the event of water scarcity below normal conditions, indicating a higher sensitivity to drought (Jiao, Wang, et al., 2021; Vicente-Serrano et al., 2013). There is generally a negative correlation between drought timescales and vegetation sensitivity. Thus, the response of vegetation to drought timescales can indirectly indicate vegetation sensitivity.

Indeed, it is more important to understand how vegetation responds to droughts over time and to uncover the underlying mechanisms behind the increasing or decreasing trend. For future predictions, it is critical to determine whether vegetation in specific regions will become more resistant or more sensitive to droughts. Although many researchers have become interested in determining how vegetation responds to drought over time, most studies show an increasing trend in vegetation sensitivity to droughts (Jiao, Wang, et al., 2021; Li et al., 2022; Wei et al., 2023; Zhang et al., 2022). However, the question of whether vegetation becomes more sensitive to drought remains debated (He et al., 2018; Zeng et al., 2022). Furthermore, all these studies focusing on time evolution trends are conducted on specific or fixed drought timescales (Jiao, Wang, et al., 2021; Li et al., 2022; Wei et al., 2023; Zhang et al., 2022), ignoring the cumulative and time-lagged effects of droughts on vegetation dynamics (Wen et al., 2019). Currently, vegetation–drought relationship studies either consider drought timescales but ignore temporal evolution trends or consider temporal evolution trends but ignore drought timescales. It remains unclear whether vegetation is becoming more sensitive to drought when considering optimal response timescale over the past three decades. Therefore, considering the drought timescales with temporal evolutionary trends would provide a more comprehensive and robust understanding of the vegetation–drought coupling relationship.

Here, we aim investigated the global vegetation–drought relationship and determined whether there is an overall increasing coupling relationship after considering the optimal response timescale. Specifically, we seek to answer two key questions: (1) How has vegetation–drought coupling changed over time after considering the optimal response timescale? (2) What are the factors that determine the increasing or decreasing trend of TSd and trend of Rd? To achieve these objectives, we calculated the monthly Pearson correlation between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) across 1–24 months of timescales, to detect vegetation–drought coupling at different timescales. We estimated the optimal drought timescales of vegetation response to drought by selecting timescales that show the maximum correlation coefficient between NDVI and SPEI (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2013). The corresponding correlation coefficient is used as a measure of vegetation–drought coupling (He et al., 2018; Jiao, Wang, et al., 2021). We perform our analysis on 18 moving windows, each with a 17-year time series, to detect changes in this coupling relationship over time. In addition, we use random forest methods to examine 30 possible drivers to explain the observed trends.

2 MATERIALS AND METHODS

2.1 Data sources and processing

2.1.1 Climate data

We utilized monthly data from the SPEI to quantify drought severity. The SPEI was from SPEIbase v2.6, which covers the period between 1901 and 2018 with a spatial resolution of 0.5°, and provides timescales ranging from 1 to 48 months. The SPEI has the advantage of combining multiscalar characteristics to identify different drought types and impacts in the context of global warming (Zanne et al., 2009). The SPEI is not only similar to the standardized precipitation index but also includes the role of temperature (Beguería et al., 2014). In this study, we used SPEIs with timescales ranging from 1 to 24 months and covering the period from 1982 to 2015. Other climatic datasets such as temperature, precipitation, and vapor pressure were obtained from the Climate Research Unit (CRU), version CRU TS 4.03. We calculated the vapor pressure deficit using the method described by Yuan et al. (2019) using temperature (used to calculate saturated vapor pressure) and vapor pressure (actual vapor pressure). We obtained high-resolution (10 km) global surface solar radiation data from the National Tibetan Plateau Data Center, which covered the period from 1983 to 2018. Soil moisture data from 1982 to 2015 were obtained from the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) soil moisture reanalysis. We used the aridity index (AI), defined as the ratio of mean annual rainfall to mean annual potential evapotranspiration, to identify arid (AI < 0.2), semi-arid (0.2 ≤ AI ≤ 0.5), sub-humid (0.5 ≤ AI ≤ 0.65), and humid (AI ≥ 0.65) regions (Zomer et al., 2022). All the data were aggregated to 0.5° × 0.5° using the cubic resampling method.

2.1.2 Satellite NDVI data

The third-generation NDVI (NDVI3g) data (Zeng et al., 2013) were obtained from the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modelling Studies (GIMMS) group. The GIMMS-NDVI3g data have been corrected for sensor degradation, intersensor differences, cloud cover, solar zenith angle, viewing angle effects, and volcanic aerosols (Huang et al., 2018; Piao et al., 2014). The longest time series GIMMS-NDVI dataset (1981–2015 and 15-day interval), as a proxy for plant photosynthesis, has been widely used to monitor vegetation growth (Huang et al., 2018; Jiao, Wang, et al., 2021). The biweekly GIMSS-NDVI series were composited monthly at a maximum value. To match the GIMSS-NDVI data (8-km spatial resolution) with the CRU climate datasets (0.5° spatial resolution), we averaged the monthly NDVI data that corresponded to each climate dataset pixel.

Since NDVI data may be saturated in high-biomass regions (Huang et al., 2018), we further examined the long-term (1982–2018, monthly) global gross primary production (GPP) dataset with a spatial resolution of 0.05° based on satellite-based near-infrared reflectance (NIRv) (Wang et al., 2021).

To minimize the impacts of land cover changes on vegetation, pixels with stable nonvegetated areas using the MODIS land cover classification product (Liu et al., 2018), global human modification map larger than 0.6 (Kennedy et al., 2019), and annual mean NDVI values below 0.1 (Peng et al., 2013) were masked. We rescaled all data to 0.5° resolution using cubic resampling interpolation.

2.2 The identification of optimal drought timescales and vegetation–drought coupling

Here, drought timescales were first identified for each month (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2013). For each pixel, we first obtained 12 series of NDVI values (e.g., from 1982 to 1998), as well as the 1- to 24-month SPEI series. We then detrended all the time series of GIMMS-NDVI and SPEI by subtracting the mean monthly values and standardized them using monthly standard deviations (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2013). Next, to differentiate the response of vegetation to SPEI over different time scales, each of the GIMMS-NDVI time series was correlated with the corresponding 1- to 24-month SPEI series (Equation 1). Finally, we obtained 288 correlation values for each pixel (12 months × 24 timescales). To eliminate the influence of phenology on results, monthly correlations were summarized annually by retaining the highest correlation found among the 288 correlation values (Equation 2).
(1)
(2)
where corr is the Pearson correlation; i represents the ith month, ranging from 1 to 12 months; j is the drought timescale, ranging from 1 to 24 months; NDVIi is the ith month NDVI series; SPEIi,j is the ith month drought index with timescale of j months; Ri,j is the Pearson correlation of NDVIi and SPEIi,j; Rmax is the maximum correlation coefficient. The j corresponding to the highest correlation coefficient was identified as the optimal drought timescales (TSd), and this Rmax served as the vegetation–drought coupling (Rd).

2.3 The trend of timescales of vegetation responding to droughts

Both GIMMS-NDVI and SPEI data ranged from 1982 to 2015. To obtain the trend of optimal drought timescales, we repeated the calculation of optimal drought timescales for eighteen 17-year windows (1982–1998, 1983–1999, 1984–2000, …, 1998–2014, and 1999–2015). We applied the Theil–Sen slope estimator to analyze the temporal trends of TSd and Rd at each grid cell. This nonparametric and median-based slope estimator can effectively overcome the influence of outliers (Sen, 1968). The significance level of the long-term trend was evaluated using a two-tailed Mann–Kendall test (Kendall, 1938; Mann, 1945). Besides performing trend detection at each grid cell, we first calculated the global area-weighted mean of TSd and Rd and generated a time series of 18 values.

2.4 The definition of vegetation water-deficit regions and vegetation water-surplus regions

Based on Jiao, Wang, et al. (2021), vegetation water-deficit regions refer to areas with a significant positive correlation (r > 0 and p < .05) between NDVI and SPEI, where vegetation growth is limited by water shortage; vegetation water-surplus regions exhibit a significant negative correlation (r < 0 and p < .05) between NDVI and SPEI. In these regions, excess water can constrain vegetation growth due to waterlogging or other factors, such as temperature and solar radiation that limit productivity. We calculated the correlation between annual NDVI and annual SPEI using the entire period from 1982 to 2015.

2.5 Variables importance by random forests

We constructed random forest (RF) regression models (Breiman, 2001) to assess the relative importance of 30 climatic, environmental, and plant physiological variables (Table S1) in predicting TSd slope and Rd slope with significant trends (p < .05). We initially investigated the relationship between TSd trend and Rd trend and these 30 drivers using scatter plots and Spearman's rank correlation coefficients. To handle multicollinear features, we performed hierarchical clustering on the Spearman rank-order correlations and retained a single feature from each cluster. The data were then randomly divided into sets for model training (9/10th) and evaluation (1/10th), and RF models were repeatedly fitted to achieve the highest out-of-bag scores. We evaluated the relative importance of each variable using the permutation importance method (Altmann et al., 2010) with scikit-learn (Biau & Scornet, 2016; Breiman, 2001; Pedregosa, 2011) in Python. We also used partial dependency analysis to assess the relationship between individual predictors and response variables, which can be used to determine the effects of individual variables on response while holding all other predictors at their average value. RF models have the advantage of accurately predicting and exploring mechanistic relationships for large, complex data with non-normality, non-independence, and collinearity (Evans et al., 2010).

The explanatory variables include three categories: climatic, environmental, and plant physiological. For environmental variables, we used gridded water table depth (WTD) (Fan et al., 2013), average saturated hydraulic conductivity (Montzka et al., 2017), average saturated volumetric water content of the soil (Montzka et al., 2017), root zone storage capacity (Singh et al., 2020; Wang-Erlandsson et al., 2016), and the proportions of water that plants use from current month precipitation (Miguez-Macho & Fan, 2021). The annual CO2 from 1982 to 2013 (Cheng et al., 2022) was used to calculate the Theil–Sen slope at a 1° grid. For plant physiological traits, we used hydraulic traits including canopy height (Simard et al., 2011; Stovall et al., 2019), maximum rooting depth (Fan et al., 2017), foliar economic traits including specific leaf area (SLA), nitrogen concentration per unit dry mass (Nm), and phosphorus concentration per unit dry mass (Pm) (Butler et al., 2017), tree density (Crowther et al., 2015), wood density (Zanne et al., 2009), and isohydricity (Konings & Gentine, 2017). We used the annual tree canopy (TC) cover from 1982 to 2016 with a 0.05° spatial resolution (Song et al., 2018) to calculate the trend of TC cover. Although environmental variables and plant physiological traits are expected to change over time, almost all environmental variables (excluding CO2) and plant physiological variables (excluding TC cover) were static maps due to data unavailability.

2.6 Sensitivity test

We primarily used eighteen 17-year moving windows (1992–1998, 1993–1999, …, 1999–2015, etc.) to assess how TSd and Rd change over time. Furthermore, we selected moving windows of 15 and 19 years to test the robustness of our results with different window selections. Additionally, we used GPPNIRv as an alternative indicator of vegetation growth and investigated how GPPNIRv responded to drought over time.

3 RESULTS

3.1 Global response of vegetation to drought along time

The timescales at which droughts (SPEI) affect vegetation (GIMMS-NDVI) were performed at each of the 18 moving windows. The coupling between vegetation and drought, as reflected by optimal drought timescales (Figure S1) and maximum Pearson correlation coefficients (Figure S2), changes markedly over time. The mean optimal drought timescales at which droughts affect vegetation (TSd) in the 18 windows exhibit high spatial variability (Figure S3). Vegetation tends to respond to longer TSd in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but shorter TSd in tropical, subtropical areas, and most parts of the Southern Hemisphere (Figure S3a). The mean correlation coefficients between GIMMS-NDVI and SPEI (Rd) in the 18 windows (Figure S3c) exhibit an opposite pattern compared to that of TSd. Although there is no obvious regularity along a precipitation or temperature gradient for the trend of TSd (Figure S3b), the high values of Rd are generally distributed in wet and warm areas (Figure S3d) with latitudes below 50° N.

Looking at trends over the past three decades, TSd shows an overall increasing trend over time, covering 54% of global vegetated areas (Figure 1a). However, there is no obvious regularity along a precipitation or temperature gradient for the trend of TSd (Figure 1b). An increasing trend of TSd can be found in almost all geographic zones, but a decreasing trend of TSd is prominent in wetter zones, such as the northern parts of Eurasian continent, most parts of Brazil, the southern regions of South America, the central and western parts of USA (Figure 1a). Unlike the overall increasing trend of TSd, the trend of Rd shows an overall declining trend (Figure 1c), accounting for 53% of global vegetated areas. The decreasing trend of Rd tends to be in warm and wet regions (Figure 1d), especially in tropical rainforest regions and most parts of Australia (Figure 1c). Noted that the Rd in this study took the optimal response timescale into consideration. When exploring the relationship between vegetation and droughts using fixed drought timescales, the distributions of Rd slope show local spatial differences among different drought timescales, although the overall spatial layout is roughly similar (Figure S4). The overall vegetation–drought coupling shows an increasing trend in 1-, 12-, 18-, and 24-month timescales of droughts but a decreasing trend in 3- and 6-month timescales of droughts. Thus, our prevailing decrease in vegetation–drought coupling reflected by Rd may be due to the consideration of optimal drought timescales.

Details are in the caption following the image
Changing response of vegetation growth to drought over 18 successive 17-year windows. (a) The Theil-Sen slope trend of drought timescales (TSd) over each successive 17-year windows at grid scale; (b) average trend of TSd in a climate phase space; (c) the Theil-Sen slope trend of Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index–Normalized Difference Vegetation Index correlation coefficients (Rd) over each successive 17-year windows at grid scale; (d) average trend of Rd in a climate phase space; (e) the global area-weighted mean TSd and Rd over each successive 17-year windows. The MAP is defined as the mean annual temperature during 1982–2015. The MAP is calculated as the mean precipitation of 1982–2015. All map lines delineate study areas and do not necessarily depict accepted national boundaries.

Moreover, using GPPNIRv as proxy for vegetation dynamics, we find the overall increasing trend of TSd and decreasing trend of Rd (Figure S5). We also repeated the analysis by changing the moving windows to 15 years (Figure S6) and 19 years (Figure S7). We still find the same increasing trend of TSd and decreasing trend of Rd. The selection of moving windows does not change our main results. The increasing trend of TSd and decreasing trend of Rd together suggest a weakening relationship between drought and vegetation over time.

3.2 Evolution of drought influence on vegetation between water-deficit and water-surplus regions

There is an obvious regularity along a dryness gradient for both TSd and Rd (Figure 2a). The mean TSd tends to show the highest increasing trend in arid regions (Figure 2a, blue line), and this positive trend decreases for regions that are more humid, as indicated by a higher AI. However, the long-term trend of Rd is found to be negative (showing a decreasing trend) in arid regions (Figure 2a, red line) but positive in regions that are more humid. Thus, increasing vegetation–drought coupling tends to be found in humid regions. Counterintuitively, vegetation–drought coupling shows a declining trend in arid regions, although its initial mean correlation is relatively high (Figure S8).

Details are in the caption following the image
Average trend of drought timescales (TSd) and vegetation–drought correlation (Rd) among arid index and climate phase space. (a) The response of drought timescales (TSd) and vegetation–drought correlation along the aridity index; shades indicate the 95% confidence interval calculated in each aridity bin. Average trend of TSd (b) and Rd (c) in a climate phase space. The MAP trend is calculated as the change of precipitation of 1982–2015 using the Theil–Sen regression. Aridity index (a static map) is an indicator of the degree of dryness calculated as the ratio between long-term precipitation and potential evapotranspiration.

When seeking the trend of TSd and Rd within the phase space of precipitation trend and static map of AI, we find that vegetation in arid environments tends to increase TSd, regardless of whether precipitation increases or not (Figure 2b). Vegetation in relative wet environments is prone to increase TSd when precipitation declines but reduce TSd when precipitation increases (Figure 2b). This is because plants in arid environment have strong adaptability to droughts and can endure long-term droughts. When local precipitation declines, plants can absorb past precipitation stored in deeper unsaturated soils, rocks, and groundwater (Miguez-Macho & Fan, 2021). While precipitation increases, plants might change their original water use striges in long-term water-deficit conditions and uptake more water from local places, resulting in a shorter response time to drought. Interestingly, vegetation in each bin of arid conditions consistently shows an increasing trend of Rd when precipitation decreases or decreasing trend of Rd when precipitation increases (Figure 2c). This implies that vegetation under similar arid conditions would have the same mechanism for responding to precipitation changes, reflecting the long-term adaptation of vegetation to its arid condition.

We further investigated the trend of TSd and Rd in water-deficit regions and water-surplus regions. We found a consistent pattern with earlier studies (Jiao, Wang, et al., 2021; Piao et al., 2014) that vegetation water-deficit regions are found in the middle and low latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere (Figure S9), while vegetation water-surplus regions are mainly found in high latitudes (above the 50th degree of Northern Latitude) in the Northern Hemisphere and rainforests in the tropics.

Although increasing and decreasing trends of TSd coexist in water-deficit and water-surplus regions at the pixel scale (Figure 3a), both water-deficit and water-surplus regions show an overall increasing trend of TSd (Figure 3c,d). However, the trend of Rd is prone to increase in water-surplus regions (Green in Figure 3b,d) but decrease in water-deficit regions (Red in Figure 3b,c). The increasing trend of Rd in water-surplus regions is mainly in the north and eastern parts of Russia, North Europe, and high latitudes of North America (Green in Figure 3b). The decreasing trend of Rd in water-deficit regions (Red in Figure 3b) is likely to occur in most regions of Africa. This result suggests that plants in arid environments have a tendency to adapt to droughts and reduce their drought sensitivity.

Details are in the caption following the image
The relationship between long-term trend of vegetation–drought coupling and vegetation–drought correlation. (a) Bivariate choropleth map based on vegetation–drought correlation (R) and trend of drought timescales (TSd); (b) bivariate choropleth map based on vegetation–drought correlation (R) and trend of maximum correlation (Rd); (c) the area-weighted mean TSd and Rd in water-deficit regions (R > 0 and p < .05); (d) the area-weighted mean TSd and Rd in water-surplus regions (R < 0 and p < .05). Yellow and red color indicate water-deficit regions, while yellow color stands for an increasing trend and red stands for a decreasing trend. Blue and green color indicate water-surplus regions, while blue color stands for an increasing trend and green stands for a decreasing trend. Areas with no significant relationship (p > .05), barren land (mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index <0.1 for all months), and permanent ice are not shown. All map lines delineate study areas and do not necessarily depict accepted national boundaries.

3.3 The driving mechanism of drought timescales and vegetation–drought correlation changes

To investigate the underlying factors influencing the TSd slope and Rd slope, we tested the correlation between TSd slope (or Rd slope) and 30 climatic, environmental, and plant physiological variables that may correlate with vegetation growth. We find that most drivers have a strong correlation with TSd slope (Figure S10) and Rd slope (Figure S11). These 30 climatic, environmental, and plant physiological variables show high collinearity. We set a threshold of 0.75 and obtained the 10 variables with low correlations (Figure S12).

We find that the CO2 trend is the most predictive driving factor for both TSd slope and Rd slope (Figure 4) from the RF models. However, the trend of TSd and the trend of Rd are determined by different climatic, environmental, and plant physiological variables. TSd slope is sensitive to external environmental and climatic factors (Figure 4a). The top three predictive driving factors for the prediction of slope of TSd only include environmental and climatic variables: CO2 trend, temperature trend, and precipitation trend (Figure 4a). While the Rd slope tends to be mainly determined by the environmental condition and inherent physiological attributes (Figure 4b). The CO2 trend, the foliar nitrogen concentration per unit dry mass (Nm), and WTD below land surface are the three most predictive driving factors (Figure 4b).

Details are in the caption following the image
Variable importance of climatic, plant, and soil hydraulic traits to predict the trend of timescales (TSd) and the trend of maximum correlation coefficients (Rd). Variable importance and the partial dependence plot of 10 selected variables for trend of drought timescale (a), for trend of correlation coefficients (b). The climatic variables were (i) Theil–Sen slope of annual mean temperature (TEM Slope); (ii) Theil–Sen slope of annual precipitation (PRE Slope); and (iii) Theil–Sen slope of annual surface solar radiation (RAD Slope). The environmental variables were (i) Theil–Sen slope of annual atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (CO2 Trend) and (ii) water table depth (WTD). The vegetation physiological variables were (i) Theil–Sen slope of high tree cover (TC Slope); (ii) canopy height; (iii) the proportion of water uptake from current moth reflecting on plants water use strategy; (iv) the foliar nitrogen concentration per unit dry mass (Nm); and (v) isohydricity reflecting on stoma regulation ability. Source data are provided in Table S1. Predictor variable categories are color coded.

We further investigated the partial dependence plot of the 10 variables on trend of TSd and trend of Rd (Figure 4). Higher CO2 and Nm tend to increase both the trend of TSd and the trend of Rd. Higher CO2 and Nm can enhance vegetation growth and need to absorb more water. On the one hand, the enhanced adaptability of plants to water shortages increases root water uptake from deeper soil, even groundwater, resulting in longer TSd. On the other hand, increasing vegetation water demand promotes coupling between vegetation and drought (Rd).

The dominant drivers are different between water-surplus regions (Figure S13) and water-deficit regions (Figure S14). For predicting the trend of TSd, the three most important factors are CO2 trend, mean temperature (TEM) slope, and RAD slope in water-surplus regions, but RAD slope, WTD, and TEM slope in water-deficit regions. Among the same drivers, TEM slope and Rad slope show opposite dependency between water-surplus regions and water-deficit regions (Figures S13a and S14a). When predicting the trend of Rd, the three most important factors are Nm, CO2 trend, and WTD in water-surplus regions, but CO2 trend, Nm, and precipitation (PRE) slope in water-deficit regions (Figures S13b and S14b). The different relative importance and dependencies between water-surplus regions and water-deficit regions indicate distinctive response mechanisms of vegetation to drought.

3.4 Prevailing decoupling between drought timescales and correlation coefficients

Both drought TSd and Rd can reflect the coupling between vegetation and drought. As earlier studies suggested, the TSd generally shows a negative relationship with vegetation–drought sensitivity (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2013), while Rd has a positive connection with vegetation–drought sensitivity (He et al., 2018). Thus, there should be a negative coupling relationship between TSd and Rd. In space, we tested this relationship between TSd and Rd with 5 × 5 moving windows at each 18 successive 17-year bins (Figure S15). We find that the coupling relationship between TSd and Rd changes over time, with the proportion of coupling areas (negative correlation) decreasing from 53% in the first 17 years (1982–1998) to 50% in the last 17 years (1999–2015) (Figure S15). We further tested this relationship between TSd and Rd both in temporal dimensions (Figure 5a) and the changing trend of spatial correlation (Figure 5c). The strong coupling between TSd and Rd at the pixel only accounts for 45% of global vegetated areas, suggesting a relative weak coupling relationship (Figure 5a). In addition, the relationship between TSd and Rd based on moving 17-year windows shows overall increasing trends (Figure 5c,e). The negative relationship between TSd and Rd in space can be found in earlier stages of the past three decades, but this negative relationship tends to approach zero (Figure 5e) and even turns positive over time.

Details are in the caption following the image
Spatiotemporal evolution of coupling relationship between drought timescales (TSd) and vegetation–drought correlation (Rd) over the 18 successive 17-year windows. (a) The spatial distribution of correlation coefficients between TSd and Rd along 18 windows at pixel scale; (b) average temporal correlation between TSd and Rd in a climate phase space; (c) the trend of spatial correlation coefficients between TSd and Rd on 5 × 5 pixel windows; (d) average trend of spatial correlation between TSd and Rd in a climate phase space; (e) the global evolution of coupling relationship between TSd and Rd over the 18 successive 17-year windows. In (a, b), temporal correlation (TSd vs. Rd) means the correlations between TSd and Rd at each pixel over 18 successive bins. While in (c, d), the spatial correlation between TSd and Rd was first calculated on 5 × 5 pixel windows and assigned to the central pixel. Then the long-term trend of spatial correlation coefficients at each pixel was calculated by the 18 spatial correlation coefficients. The MAP is defined as the mean annual temperature during 1982–2015. The MAP is calculated as the mean precipitation of 1982–2015. In (e), the blue line indicates global area-weighted mean value of correlation coefficients between TSd and Rd. The value approaching −1 indicates strong coupling relationship, but value approaching 1 indicates strong decoupling relationship. The red line indicates the global proportion of coupling vegetated areas (the percentage of areas with negative correlation coefficients between TSd and Rd). All map lines delineate study areas and do not necessarily depict accepted national boundaries.

When inspecting the evolution of the coupling relationship in climate phase space, there is no obvious regularity along a precipitation or temperature gradient for the temporal correlation between TSd and Rd (Figure 5b). However, the changing trend of spatial correlation tends to be strengthened in cold regions (temperatures below 10°C). The prevailing negative relationship of temporal correlation and increasing trends of spatial correlation together suggest a weakening coupling relationship between TSd and Rd. We can conclude that the strong negative relationship between TSd and Rd coupling, previously reported only spatially, will not occur in the temporal dimension.

4 DISCUSSION

We extended previous studies by investigating how vegetation–drought coupling changed over time over the past three decades (1982–2015) while considering optimal response timescale. We found an overall increasing trend in the timescales of vegetation responding to drought (Figure 1). This overall increasing trend of TSd suggests that vegetation tends to be affected by long-term droughts. This finding indirectly indicates a weakening vegetation–drought coupling trend over time, which indicates that plants have a tendency to adapt to droughts and might adjust their water use strategies by using past precipitation stored in deeper unsaturated soils, rocks, and groundwater to overcome seasonal and irregular droughts (Miguez-Macho & Fan, 2021). With the optimal response timescale considered, we find that the increasing vegetation–drought coupling is mainly observed in water-surplus regions, while vegetation in water-deficit regions is prone to show a decreasing trend of vegetation–drought coupling. These findings challenge earlier conclusions that vegetation sensitivity to droughts has increased over the past decades (Jiao, Wang, et al., 2021; Li et al., 2022; Wei et al., 2023; Zhang et al., 2022). However, these studies either ignored the variable timescales of droughts or focused solely on the plant response to precipitation and soil moisture rather than drought. The varying definitions, data sources, methods, study periods, and regions might lead to different trends in the coupling of vegetation and droughts (Table S2). The biggest reason for the declining trend may be the consideration of drought timescales, which is consistent with He et al.'s (2018) conclusion of weakening sensitivity of vegetation to droughts. Although they took timescales into account, we question He et al.'s (2018) conclusion for two reasons. On the one hand, they solely investigated long-term droughts (12–24 months) but ignored short- and mid-term droughts (less than 12 months). On the other hand, they directly equated correlation coefficients with vegetation sensitivity to droughts. Our comparison between TSd and Rd indicated that correlation coefficients do not represent vegetation sensitivity over time (Figure 5). Thus, we can only conclude a declining coupling between vegetation and drought, rather than a decreasing sensitivity.

Plants in water-deficit zones tend to reduce their sensitivity to drought over time. Plants in arid environments have three important strategies for actively maintaining physiological water balance: (1) increasing root water uptake from soil; (2) reducing transpiration by closing stomata; and (3) adjusting osmotic processes within tissues (Gupta et al., 2020). We find that rising CO2 is the most important driver affecting the change in vegetation–drought coupling (Figure 4). On the one hand, elevated CO2 leads to a reduction in stomatal conductance, an increase in water-use efficiency (Keenan et al., 2013), and a decrease in the amount of water needed by plants (Farrior Caroline et al., 2015). On the other hand, plants tend to acclimate to water stress to some extent over time (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2013). Plants in arid environments could maximize their hydrological benefits through proper hydraulic traits (Anderegg et al., 2018), root zone storage capacity, and tree cover (Singh et al., 2020). For instance, a meta-analysis of the global distribution of xylem vulnerability showed that trees growing in arid conditions around the world are better at withstanding xylem embolism (Choat et al., 2012). Studies have also shown that in arid conditions, plants have relatively deep rooting systems allowing them to absorb groundwater from deeper soil or rocks (McDowell, 2008; Miguez-Macho & Fan, 2021). Felton et al. (2021) found that the temporal sensitivity of vegetation in drylands is better predicted by biotic factors related to vegetation structure than by mean annual precipitation, which further verifies plant adaptation and acclimation after frequent and severe droughts. Plants will strengthen the growth of their root systems, and their main roots will extend downstream to deeper depths in search of water sources, which can be verified by the increasing response time to drought.

Although wet regions are not normally considered to be at drought risk, vegetation in wet environments is showing increasing vegetation–drought coupling. CO2 fertilization is the main driver of global greening (Piao et al., 2020). Rising CO2-induced leaf area increase, in turn, leads to an increase in water demand and water loss (Duursma et al., 2019), offsetting the CO2 water saving effect due to reduced stomatal aperture (Fatichi et al., 2016). Another possible explanation may be that plants in humid regions lack adaptation mechanisms to drought but may encounter severe droughts due to rising VPD and temperature (Yuan et al., 2019). Indeed, drought-induced declines in forest growth are occurring not only in arid regions but also in wet forests (Meir & Woodward, 2010; Phillips, 2009). Choat et al. (2012) also showed a global convergence in the vulnerability of forests to drought, with all forest biomes equally vulnerable to hydraulic failure regardless of their current rainfall environment. Attention should also be paid to wet regions, which are not normally considered at drought risk due to abundant water availability.

Besides, the prevailing decoupling between TSd and Rd suggests that the response time should not be replaced by the correlation-derived sensitivity indicator. As earlier studies have shown, shorter timescales mean more rapid vegetation reactions as soon as water deficits fall below normal conditions, representing a higher sensitivity of vegetation to drought (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2013). The sensitivity of vegetation to drought can also be measured by the vegetation–drought coupling (correlation coefficients; De Keersmaecker, 2015; Seddon et al., 2016), with a higher correlation representing a higher sensitivity. If this assumption is true, the TSd and Rd should exhibit a negative coupling relationship. However, our results confirm that the negative coupling relationship becomes positive over time. We find that the change in TSd along time is mainly determined by environmental and climatic drivers, while the change in Rd is more controlled by environmental and plant physiological traits. This suggests that optimal drought timescales can reflect the information that vegetation–drought correlation fails to provide. Furthermore, the correlation-derived indicator would fail to represent vegetation sensitivity. For instance, when the response of vegetation to drought is non-linear and near the key arid threshold (turning points), a minor increase in drought intensity may lead to a huge loss of vegetation production (Berdugo et al., 2020). In this case, the actual high vegetation–drought sensitivity might be marked by a low correlation from a statistical perspective. It should be noted that the reduction in Rd in water-deficit regions can be attributed to the cumulative effects of chronic water scarcity and the high sensitivity of plants to droughts. This is because trees are likely to exhibit a minimal response to water stress in subsequent months or years after they have been affected by water deficit-induced die-off. Considering the possibility that Rd is low but the vegetation–drought sensitivity is high, other indicators representing vegetation–drought coupling are needed. Although our optimal drought timescales can only indirectly represent vegetation's sensitivity to droughts, the response time we propose may serve as an effective supplement to current vegetation–drought coupling assessments.

Our work focused on dynamic changes in vegetation response to drought rather than static spatial patterns. However, many predictive drivers are static, which may not reflect the influence of changing drivers on changing vegetation–drought coupling. Although the importance of predicting factors was briefly discussed, the specific mechanism has not been verified. The differential drought timescale is also linked to drought-induced changes in the hydrological cycle (Geruo, 2017). Thus, we need to further understand how vegetation under drought stress responds to changes in hydrological components at different soil depths and with varying temporal signatures. Nevertheless, our results reveal the contradictory trend in vegetation sensitivity to droughts between water-surplus regions and water-deficit regions and stress the importance of paying more attention to wet regions. The next challenge is to reveal specific plant water use strategies (Brodribb et al., 2020) and understand the deep soil water uptake process (Werner et al., 2021) as response time increases over time. It is also critical to apply other robust methods to quantify vegetation's sensitivity to droughts, such as regression slope methods (Rao et al., 2022) and tipping point theory (Au et al., 2023).

5 CONCLUSIONS

Our optimal drought timescales quantified the length of time over which past drought conditions significantly affect current vegetation growth. We find a remarkable increase in the timescale of vegetation response to droughts globally over the last three decades from 1982 to 2015, which suggests that plants tend to adapt to droughts and might adjust their water use strategies. With the optimal drought timescales considered, we find that the increasing vegetation–drought coupling is mainly observed in water-surplus regions, while the vegetation in water-deficit regions is prone to show a declining coupling relationship, although its initial correlation is relatively high. These two opposite trends indicate that more attention should be paid to wet regions. Furthermore, the prevailing decoupling between TSd and Rd over time suggests the importance of measuring vegetation–drought relationships in different ways. Overall, temporal linkages between vegetation–drought improve our understanding of historically observed vegetation–drought coupling and can contribute to our understanding of upcoming risk in the future.

AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS

Delong Li: Conceptualization; data curation; formal analysis; funding acquisition; investigation; methodology; software; visualization; writing – original draft; writing – review and editing. Li An: Data curation; software; writing – review and editing. Shuai Zhong: Formal analysis; software; writing – review and editing. Lei Shen: Conceptualization; funding acquisition; investigation; supervision; writing – review and editing. Shuyao Wu: Data curation; investigation; writing – review and editing.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This study was supported by the Third Xinjiang Scientific Expedition (Grant No. 2022xjkk0803), Research Initiation Project for New Researchers of Young Talents Program of Chinese National Geography (Grant No. E3V3001BYZ), and Key Program of International Cooperation, Bureau of International Cooperation, the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. 131551KYSB20210030).

    CONFLICT OF INTEREST STATEMENT

    The authors declare no conflict of interest.

    DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

    The input data, output data, and main codes underpinning this paper are openly available from Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10428840. The data we used are all publicly available. The Global GIMMS NDVI3g v1 dataset (1981–2015, 8 km) are available from the National Tibetan Plateau Data Center at https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/zh-hans/data/9775f2b4-7370-4e5e-a537-3482c9a83d88. The high-resolution (10 km) global surface solar radiation are also available from the National Tibetan Plateau Data Center at https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/en/data/be562de3-6367-402f-956d-59f7c21ad294/. The gridded SPEI data (SPEIbase v2.6) are available from https://spei.csic.es/spei_database. The Climatic Research Unit (CRU), version TS 4.03, is available from https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/. The 0.05° GPPNIRv from 1982 to 2018 are available from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142569. GLEAM soil moisture reanalysis is from https://www.gleam.eu/. The Gridded 1° atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations from 1850 to 2013 can be accessed via the Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5021361. Global Human Modification map is obtained from http://s3.amazonaws.com/DevByDesign-Web/Apps/gHM/index.html. The global above biomass carbon density in the year 2010 is available on Figshare at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.4561940. The Arid Index is obtained from https://cgiarcsi.community/data/global-aridity-and-pet-database/. Yearly TC cover (1982–2016) is obtained from https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/products/vcf5kyrv001/. The 1 km canopy height is available from https://webmap.ornl.gov/ogc/dataset.jsp?dg_id=10023. The maximum rooting depth is from https://wci.earth2observe.eu/thredds/catalog/usc/root-depth/catalog.html. The tree density is from https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/yale_fes_data/1/. The proportion of water uptake of plant from current month is available from http://thredds-gfnl.usc.es/thredds/catalog/DATA_TRANSPSOURCES/catalog.html. The SLA, Nm, and Pm are available from https://github.com/abhirupdatta/global_maps_of_plant_traits. Water Table Depth is available from https://aquaknow.jrc.ec.europa.eu/content/global-patterns-groundwater-table-depth-wtd. Elevation is available from http://viewfinderpanoramas.org/dem3.html. Saturated hydraulic conductivity and Soil porosity are available from https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.870605. Root zone storage capacity is accessible on GitHub at https://github.com/chandrakant6492/Drought-coping-strategy. The Wood Density is obtained from the Global Wood Density Database on Dryad https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.234/1. The Isohydricity is derived from GitHub at https://github.com/agkonings/isohydricity.

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