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# pre-mortem

> Structured risk analysis that imagines launch failure and works backward to identify threats. Use when preparing for a product launch, major release, or any high-stakes initiative.

# Pre-Mortem

A structured risk identification technique: imagine the product **has already failed**, then work backward to identify what went wrong — before it actually does.

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## Purpose

Traditional risk planning asks "what could go wrong?" which triggers optimism bias. Pre-mortems flip the frame: **"It failed. Why?"** — which activates prospective hindsight and surfaces risks people are reluctant to raise.

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## When to Use

- 2–4 weeks before a product launch or major release
- Before committing significant resources to a new initiative
- After completing a PRD or architecture review, before sprint execution
- When the team feels overconfident about a plan

## When NOT to Use

- During ideation or brainstorming (too early, kills momentum)
- After launch (use a retrospective instead)
- For minor changes or bug fixes

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## Required Inputs

Read and reference the following (if available):
- PRD or product spec
- Launch plan or release checklist
- Architecture or technical design
- Go-to-market plan
- Stakeholder expectations

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## The Process

### Step 1: Set the Scene

Start with this prompt to the team (or yourself):

> "Imagine it's 6 months from now. This initiative has **failed spectacularly**. Customers are unhappy, metrics haven't moved, and leadership is asking what went wrong. What happened?"

Generate **10–15 potential failure causes** without filtering. Include:
- Technical failures
- User adoption problems
- Market/competitive misreads
- Organizational/political issues
- Operational breakdowns
- Missing capabilities

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### Step 2: Classify Each Risk

Categorize every risk into one of three types:

**Tigers** — Real, evidence-backed risks that require action
- Based on data, past experience, or expert judgment
- Would cause significant damage if they materialize
- Can be mitigated with specific actions

**Paper Tigers** — Concerns that seem scary but are manageable
- Often raised by stakeholders with incomplete context
- Low probability or low actual impact
- Can be acknowledged and monitored without dedicated action

**Elephants** — Unspoken risks nobody wants to discuss
- Political sensitivities (team capabilities, budget, leadership decisions)
- Uncomfortable truths (market isn't ready, product isn't differentiated)
- Requires psychological safety to surface

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### Step 3: Score Tigers by Urgency

For each Tiger, classify urgency:

| Urgency | Definition | Action Required |
|---------|-----------|----------------|
| **Launch-Blocking** | Must solve before launch or initiative is at serious risk | Mitigation plan required NOW |
| **Fast-Follow** | Can launch, but must address within 30 days post-launch | Assign owner, set deadline |
| **Track** | Monitor with defined triggers; act if situation changes | Define monitoring metric and threshold |

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### Step 4: Create Mitigation Plans for Launch-Blocking Tigers

For each launch-blocking Tiger, produce:

```markdown
### Tiger: [Risk Description]

**Evidence**: Why we believe this is real
**Impact if unmitigated**: What happens if we ignore it
**Mitigation plan**:
1. [Specific action]
2. [Specific action]
3. [Specific action]
**Owner**: [Name/Role]
**Due date**: [Date — must be before launch]
**Success criteria**: How we know the risk is mitigated
```

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### Step 5: Produce the Pre-Mortem Summary

```markdown
## Pre-Mortem Summary

**Initiative**: [Name]
**Launch date**: [Date]
**Pre-mortem date**: [Today]
**Participants**: [Names/Roles]

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### Launch-Blocking Tigers (Must Resolve)

| # | Risk | Impact | Mitigation | Owner | Due |
|---|------|--------|------------|-------|-----|
| 1 | [risk] | [impact] | [action] | [who] | [when] |

### Fast-Follow Tigers (Resolve Within 30 Days)

| # | Risk | Impact | Mitigation | Owner | Due |
|---|------|--------|------------|-------|-----|
| 1 | [risk] | [impact] | [action] | [who] | [when] |

### Tracked Risks (Monitor)

| # | Risk | Monitoring Metric | Trigger Threshold | Owner |
|---|------|------------------|-------------------|-------|
| 1 | [risk] | [metric] | [threshold] | [who] |

### Paper Tigers (Acknowledged, No Action)

- [risk] — Why it's manageable: [reason]

### Elephants (Surfaced, Needs Discussion)

- [risk] — Why this matters: [reason]

---

### Decision
- [ ] **GO** — All launch-blocking Tigers mitigated
- [ ] **CONDITIONAL GO** — Launch-blocking Tigers have plans, not yet resolved
- [ ] **NO-GO** — Unresolved launch-blocking Tigers, delay recommended
```

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## Facilitation Tips

- **Anonymity helps** — Let people write risks privately before sharing
- **No judgment** — Every risk gets written down, classified later
- **Elephants are the prize** — The most valuable risks are the ones people are afraid to say
- **Time-box** — 45–60 minutes for the full exercise
- **Revisit** — Review the pre-mortem 1 week before launch to check mitigation progress

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## Anti-Patterns

| Avoid | Why | Instead |
|-------|-----|---------|
| Skipping Elephants | The unsaid risks are often the most dangerous | Create psychological safety, use anonymous input |
| All risks are Tigers | If everything is critical, nothing is | Force classification — most risks are Paper Tigers |
| No owners assigned | Unowned risks never get mitigated | Every Tiger needs a named owner and due date |
| Running too early | Pre-mortem needs a concrete plan to evaluate | Run after PRD/architecture, before execution |
| Running too late | No time to mitigate launch-blocking risks | Run 2–4 weeks before launch, not the day before |
| Optimism creep | Team agrees risks exist but "we'll figure it out" | Demand specific mitigation actions, not vague reassurances |

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## References

- Klein, Gary. "Performing a Project Premortem." *Harvard Business Review* (2007)
- [Tigers, Paper Tigers, Elephants framework](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/pre-mortem)
