# Projection Reports: Emerging Technology Risk Assessment

This directory contains scenario-based projection reports analyzing potential futures involving advanced AI systems and their societal impacts. These are independent analyses, not affiliated with any government agency, think tank, or official institution. The "ETRA" branding is a document formatting convention, not an organizational identity.

## Purpose

These projections serve defensive policy analysis:

1. **Threat anticipation** - Understanding risks before they fully materialize
2. **Institutional preparation** - Enabling proactive adaptation
3. **Policy development** - Informing regulatory and governance frameworks
4. **Research prioritization** - Identifying critical areas for further study

## Scope and Limitations

- All projections analyze capabilities and trends, not operational details
- Documents explicitly omit information that could enable harm
- Analysis draws on publicly available academic and policy literature
- Uncertainty is inherent; multiple scenarios are presented where appropriate

## Reports

| Report | Topic | PDF | Source |
|--------|-------|-----|--------|
| AI Agents Political Targeting | AI agents and political violence risk | [Download PDF](https://github.com/AndrewAltimit/template-repo/releases/latest) | [Markdown](./ai-agents-political-targeting.md) \| [LaTeX](./latex/ai-agents-political-targeting.tex) |
| AI Agents WMD Proliferation | AI agents and WMD proliferation risk | [Download PDF](https://github.com/AndrewAltimit/template-repo/releases/latest) | [Markdown](./ai-agents-wmd-proliferation.md) \| [LaTeX](./latex/ai-agents-wmd-proliferation.tex) |
| AI Agents Espionage Operations | AI agents and intelligence tradecraft | [Download PDF](https://github.com/AndrewAltimit/template-repo/releases/latest) | [Markdown](./ai-agents-espionage-operations.md) \| [LaTeX](./latex/ai-agents-espionage-operations.tex) |
| AI Agents Economic Actors | AI agents as autonomous economic actors | [Download PDF](https://github.com/AndrewAltimit/template-repo/releases/latest) | [Package](../../packages/economic_agents) \| [LaTeX](./latex/ai-agents-economic-actors.tex) |
| AI Agents Financial Integrity | AI agents and financial system integrity | [Download PDF](https://github.com/AndrewAltimit/template-repo/releases/latest) | [Markdown](./ai-agents-financial-integrity.md) \| [LaTeX](./latex/ai-agents-financial-integrity.tex) |
| AI Agents Institutional Erosion | AI agents eroding IC monopolies | [Download PDF](https://github.com/AndrewAltimit/template-repo/releases/latest) | [Markdown](./ai-agents-institutional-erosion.md) \| [LaTeX](./latex/ai-agents-institutional-erosion.tex) |

**Build Status**: [![Build Documentation](https://github.com/AndrewAltimit/template-repo/actions/workflows/build-docs.yml/badge.svg)](https://github.com/AndrewAltimit/template-repo/actions/workflows/build-docs.yml)

PDFs are automatically compiled from LaTeX source and published with each [release](https://github.com/AndrewAltimit/template-repo/releases). Individual build artifacts are also available from the [Build Documentation workflow](https://github.com/AndrewAltimit/template-repo/actions/workflows/build-docs.yml).

## Methodology

The projection methodology draws on:

- **Trend extrapolation** from current AI capabilities
- **Historical case analysis** of technology-society interactions
- **Institutional behavior modeling** based on past adaptations
- **Expert consultation** across relevant domains
- **Red team exercises** conducted under controlled conditions

These reports aim to be concrete and specific while acknowledging uncertainty. Probability estimates are provided where appropriate.

## Classification

These documents are for policy, security, and research audiences engaged in defensive analysis. They are intended for audiences with appropriate context.

## Disclaimer

These documents are published for defensive policy research and education. The author does not provide guidance, consultation, or briefings on any topic covered in these reports. Feature requests, topic suggestions, and engagement requests will not be accepted regardless of compensation. The author may ignore public comments, inquiries, and news coverage related to these reports to maintain neutrality and legal distance. See [CONTRIBUTING.md](../../CONTRIBUTING.md).

## Related Resources

- `docs/agents/` - AI agent documentation for this repository
- `docs/philosophy/` - Philosophical explorations of AI minds and experience
- `packages/sleeper_agents/` - Defensive AI safety research (implementation-focused)
- External: AI safety research organizations, policy think tanks

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*Independent research -- not affiliated with any institution or committee*
