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  "aggregate": {
    "status": "PROVEN",
    "reason": "observed provider telemetry shows positive realized cache savings",
    "requests": 845,
    "baseline_token_equiv": 110874474,
    "actual_token_equiv": 25354425.700000033,
    "saved_token_equiv": 85520048.29999997,
    "saved_pct": 77.13231478329266,
    "cache_read_tokens": 103091957,
    "cache_creation_tokens": 7262713,
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    "first_positive_request": 1,
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  "hit_rate": 0.9298078564052534,
  "multiplier": 4.372983056760771,
  "mean_prefix_tokens": 131212.3952662722,
  "concentration": {
    "ZipfS": 0.5440177202790628,
    "Measured": true,
    "Defeated": true,
    "TopNCoverage": {
      "1": 0.23237048908662744,
      "2": 0.423243985622311,
      "3": 0.580353240928619,
      "4": 0.7211542972005143,
      "5": 0.8255909278006095,
      "6": 0.9162773776117068,
      "7": 1
    },
    "Recommendation": "workload is flat (s\u003c=1): vCache will not help — manufacture skew (canonicalize/aggregate) or abstain"
  },
  "prediction": {
    "Total": 845,
    "TrueWarm": 838,
    "FalseWarm": 0,
    "TrueCold": 0,
    "FalseCold": 7
  },
  "recall": {
    "status": "refuted",
    "decision": "cold_prefill",
    "reason": "cost gate refused: P·r \u003e= S·U — recall-by-rebuild is net-negative (§11.0); send the unit cold",
    "prefix_tokens": 131212,
    "unit_tokens": 10,
    "read_mult": 0.1,
    "siblings": 1,
    "replay_cost": 13121.2,
    "fresh_prefill_cost": 10,
    "amortized_savings": 10,
    "break_even_siblings": 1313,
    "loss_ratio": 1312.1200000000001,
    "correctness_depends_on": false
  },
  "grade_measured": "C",
  "score_measured": 60,
  "grade_synthetic": "A",
  "score_synthetic": 100,
  "panels": [
    {
      "name": "base provider cache",
      "package": "internal/cachemeta",
      "milestone": "tier-1 (passive)",
      "question": "is the Anthropic prefix cache being reused at all?",
      "value": "hit 93.0% — 103,091,957 cached input tokens served over 845 turns",
      "provenance": "OBSERVED",
      "verdict": "WORKS",
      "witness": "fak vcache observe (aggregate.cache_read_tokens)",
      "detail": "the obvious base case — cache_read\u003e0 every turn; this is what 'base cache works' means."
    },
    {
      "name": "M2 star anchors",
      "package": "internal/vcachestar",
      "milestone": "M2 (#717)",
      "question": "does a warmed prefix pay for itself within a family?",
      "value": "saved 77.1% (85,520,048 token-equiv) across 7 families; first-positive turn 1",
      "provenance": "OBSERVED",
      "verdict": "WORKS",
      "witness": "fak vcache prove-telemetry --file \u003ctelemetry\u003e",
      "detail": "within-family reuse: the shared system prefix is warmed once and read by every later turn."
    },
    {
      "name": "M1 concentration",
      "package": "internal/vcachecal",
      "milestone": "M1 (#716) §5.2",
      "question": "is reuse CONCENTRATED enough for cross-family warming to help?",
      "value": "measured Zipf s=0.54 over 7 families (defeated=true)",
      "provenance": "DECISION",
      "verdict": "DEFEATED",
      "witness": "fak vcache score --anchors-file \u003cmeasured-anchors\u003e",
      "detail": "workload is flat (s\u003c=1): vCache will not help — manufacture skew (canonicalize/aggregate) or abstain"
    },
    {
      "name": "M1 warmth belief",
      "package": "internal/vcachecal",
      "milestone": "M1 (#716) §7 / Law A1",
      "question": "does the warmth estimator ever book a save it did not get?",
      "value": "false-warm 0.00% (the lethal one) · false-cold 100.00% (benign under-claim) over 845 turns",
      "provenance": "OBSERVED",
      "verdict": "SAFE",
      "witness": "fak vcache observe (prediction.false_warm)",
      "detail": "false-warm is the dangerous direction (manifest says HIT, provider says MISS); 0% means verify-then-trust holds on real traffic."
    },
    {
      "name": "M3 dedicated warming",
      "package": "internal/vcachewarm",
      "milestone": "M3 (#718)",
      "question": "should we spend a dedicated max_tokens:0 / decode-1 warm?",
      "value": "7/7 families net-positive from natural traffic by turn 1",
      "provenance": "DECISION",
      "verdict": "NATURAL-FIRST",
      "witness": "fak vcache observe (families[].economics.first_positive_request)",
      "detail": "the first natural request warms the prefix for free; a dedicated warm would only add a write — spend it only for latency or a TTL gap."
    },
    {
      "name": "M4 chains \u0026 recall",
      "package": "internal/vcachechain",
      "milestone": "M4 (#719) §11.0",
      "question": "should a single unit be recalled by replaying the chain?",
      "value": "at the account's mean 131,212-token prefix: 1312x loss, break-even 1313 siblings",
      "provenance": "DECISION",
      "verdict": "REFUSED",
      "witness": "fak vcache prove-recall --prefix-tokens \u003cmean\u003e",
      "detail": "single-unit chain rebuild is a large net loss; the cost gate correctly refuses it and reserves rebuild for amortized fan-out."
    },
    {
      "name": "M5 governor",
      "package": "internal/vcachegov",
      "milestone": "M5 (#720) §5.4",
      "question": "pin, lazy-rebuild, or ride natural traffic per prefix?",
      "value": "ride_natural (the dominant verdict across 7 families' observed arrival rates)",
      "provenance": "DECISION",
      "verdict": "RIDE-NATURAL",
      "witness": "fak vcache observe (families[].governor_decision)",
      "detail": "active sessions arrive faster than the 5m TTL (λT≥1), so natural traffic holds the prefix warm — no pin, no dedicated warm."
    },
    {
      "name": "score composite",
      "package": "internal/vcachescore",
      "milestone": "agent-dev 2x gate",
      "question": "what grade does the run earn — measured vs synthetic?",
      "value": "MEASURED C (60/100) vs SYNTHETIC A (100/100)",
      "provenance": "DECISION",
      "verdict": "CONTEXT-DEPENDENT",
      "witness": "fak vcache score --telemetry \u003ct\u003e --anchors-file \u003ca\u003e",
      "detail": "same realized economics; the grade gap is almost entirely the concentration assumption (35 of 40 pts; the other 5 are the benign false-cold risk penalty) — synthetic steep (s=1.74) vs the account's measured-flat distribution."
    },
    {
      "name": "cachemeta canonicalization",
      "package": "internal/cachemeta",
      "milestone": "tier-1 §6",
      "question": "is the cacheable prefix staying byte-stable?",
      "value": "inferred HOLDING — 0.00% false-warm (a canonicalization break would show as believed-warm, cache_read=0)",
      "provenance": "OBSERVED",
      "verdict": "HOLDING",
      "witness": "fak vcache observe (prediction.false_warm == 0)",
      "detail": "a volatile byte in the prefix (timestamp/UUID) would silently break reuse; 0 false-warms is the proxy that the prefix is canonical."
    }
  ]
}
