---
artifact: hypothesis
version: "1.0"
created: <YYYY-MM-DD>
status: draft
---

# Hypothesis: [Brief Title]

## Hypothesis Statement

**We believe that** [specific action or change]

**for** [target user segment]

**will** [expected outcome/behavior change]

**as measured by** [primary success metric]

## Background & Rationale

### Problem Context
<!-- What problem is this hypothesis attempting to solve? Link to problem statement if available. -->

[Problem context]

### Supporting Evidence
<!-- What data, research, or observations led to this hypothesis? -->

[Evidence that supports this belief]

### Alternative Hypotheses Considered
<!-- What other explanations or approaches did you consider? -->

[Alternative approaches]

## Target User Segment

### Definition
<!-- Specific criteria that define this user segment -->

[User segment definition]

### Segment Size
<!-- How many users fall into this segment? -->

[Estimated count or percentage]

### Current Behavior
<!-- How do these users currently behave? What's the baseline? -->

[Current state]

## Success Metrics

### Primary Metric
<!-- The main metric that determines if the hypothesis is validated -->

| Metric | Current Baseline | Target | Minimum Detectable Effect |
|--------|-----------------|--------|--------------------------|
| [Metric name] | [Current value] | [Target value] | [MDE %] |

### Secondary Metrics
<!-- Additional metrics that provide context -->

| Metric | Current Baseline | Expected Direction |
|--------|-----------------|-------------------|
| [Metric 1] | [Value] | [Increase/Decrease/No change] |
| [Metric 2] | [Value] | [Increase/Decrease/No change] |

### Guardrail Metrics
<!-- Metrics that should NOT be negatively impacted -->

| Metric | Current Value | Acceptable Range |
|--------|--------------|------------------|
| [Metric 1] | [Value] | [Range] |

## Validation Approach

### Method
<!-- How will you test this hypothesis? A/B test, prototype, interviews, etc. -->

[Validation method]

### Sample Size & Duration
<!-- Statistical requirements for the test -->

- Sample size: [Number per variant]
- Duration: [Time period]
- Traffic allocation: [Percentage]

### Pass/Fail Criteria
<!-- What results will validate or invalidate the hypothesis? -->

- **Validated if:** [Specific criteria]
- **Invalidated if:** [Specific criteria]
- **Inconclusive if:** [Specific criteria]

## Risks & Assumptions

### Key Assumptions
<!-- What are you assuming to be true? -->

- [Assumption 1]
- [Assumption 2]

### Risks
<!-- What could go wrong? What might invalidate results? -->

- [Risk 1]
- [Risk 2]

## Timeline

| Phase | Dates | Duration |
|-------|-------|----------|
| Setup & instrumentation | [Dates] | [Duration] |
| Test running | [Dates] | [Duration] |
| Analysis | [Dates] | [Duration] |
| Decision | [Date] | - |
