---
title: "Foundation Sprint Founding Hypothesis: Storevine Retail Direction"
description: "Storevine Day 2 end capstone artifact: canonical Founding Hypothesis sentence + assumption scorecard + recommended next test."
artifact: foundation-sprint-founding-hypothesis
version: "1.0"
repo_version: "2.15.0"
skill_version: "0.1.0"
created: 2026-05-19
status: sample
thread: storevine
context: "Storevine Day 2 end (15:30-16:30 PT 2026-05-19); Founding Hypothesis spine artifact ratified by Decider"
---

<!-- PM-Skills | https://github.com/product-on-purpose/pm-skills | Apache 2.0 -->

## Founding Hypothesis (Canonical Strict Template)

**If we help** independent and small-chain US specialty retailers with 5-50 stores **solve** weekly buying decisions made from spreadsheet review and gut feel **with** Monday morning analyst-reviewed templated briefs delivering specific ranked actions readable in 15 minutes, **they will choose it over** Tableau / Power BI / Looker, retail-specialist tools like Daasity and Glew, ERP-embedded reporting from NetSuite and Microsoft Dynamics, Shopify Analytics and Square Analytics, hired retail consultants, and the dominant "doing nothing with gut feel" status quo **because our solution is** the only managed-intelligence service that combines a pre-built specialty-retail data model, sector-specialist human analyst review, a weekly delivery rhythm matched to merchandiser schedules, and specific actions rather than abstract metrics, at a price point ($800-1000 MRR) that fits 5-50 store SMB margin structures.

## Why We Believe This

1. The 31 customer interviews showed weekly buying decisions are made from gut + spreadsheet in 100% of cases; existing analytics tools are unused even when paid for.
2. The "doing nothing" alternative is creating measurable margin loss (interview data: $40k in 2 weeks at one 14-store retailer).
3. Specialty retail buying decisions are sector-shaped enough that templates work (outdoor merchandising rules are not grocery merchandising rules); the templates differentiate us from generic BI.
4. The 15-minute Monday read maps to existing merchandiser routines we observed in customer interviews.
5. Carlos's lived 5-year experience with 4 stores validates the buyer-side empathy without us having to build it from scratch.

## What Could Prove Us Wrong

| Disconfirming evidence we should look for | Pre-test commitment |
|---|---|
| Design-partner retailers don't open the Monday brief or open it but don't act on it | If open rate < 70% by week 3, we re-evaluate the delivery format |
| Customers experience templates as generic / canned | If customer-judged actionability rating < 4 of 5 by week 3, we fall back to Approach 2 (Pooled Analyst) |
| Setup time exceeds 1 hour for a design partner | If onboarding requires data-engineering effort, the differentiator (D7) breaks and we re-scope |
| Customers want self-serve drill-down despite our principle | If 3 or more design-partner requests for drill-down emerge in 4 weeks, principle 3 needs revisiting |
| Margin contribution recommendations are wrong (false positives or misses) | If template + analyst review produces wrong recommendations in week 2, we re-architect quality control |

## Assumption Scorecard

| # | Assumption | Risk | Evidence quality | Pilot scorecard? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1 | Templates can be authored that produce non-generic-feeling briefs for the 5 subverticals we target | HIGH | Low (untested) | Primary row |
| A2 | Customers will pay $800-1000 MRR for managed-intelligence at this scope | HIGH | Medium (interview signal) | Yes |
| A3 | One analyst can review and deliver 30-50 customer briefs per week without quality degradation | HIGH | Low (untested) | Yes |
| A4 | Setup from POS connection to first brief delivery is under 1 hour | MEDIUM | Medium (Devon's prior experience) | Yes |
| A5 | The Monday morning weekly rhythm matches actual merchandiser routines well enough that the brief is read | MEDIUM | High (interview synthesis) | Yes |
| A6 | Specialty retailers will trust an analyst-reviewed template more than a generic-BI dashboard | MEDIUM | Medium (Trust lens evidence) | No |
| A7 | The 5-50 store band is large enough to support a viable business at ~$1k MRR | MEDIUM | High (TAM math) | No |

**Highest-risk assumption (primary pilot scorecard row): A1.** If templates cannot produce non-generic-feeling briefs for the targeted subverticals, the top bet (Approach 3 Templates) fails and the backup plan (Approach 2 Pooled) activates. A1 is testable in the design-partner pilot: customer-judged generic vs specific rating on each weekly brief.

## Recommended Next Test

**Design Sprint?** Borderline. The Storevine top bet is operationally heavy (template authoring + analyst review process design) rather than UX-heavy. A Design Sprint would help with the customer-facing Monday brief interface but would not test A1 (template fidelity) which is the highest-risk assumption.

**Recommendation: 4-week design-partner pilot starting 2026-06-02** with Bayfront Outfitters and West Loop Goods as initial partners. Pilot mechanics:

- Week 1: Setup + first brief delivery; baseline open rate + customer rating
- Week 2: Second brief; check for "templates feel generic" early signal
- Week 3: Third brief + customer interview re actionability + trust
- Week 4: Fourth brief + retention conversation re paid pilot continuation at $1k MRR

A Design Sprint can follow the pilot if the brief interface itself becomes a question, but for v0.1 the operational pilot is the right next test.

## Decider Checkpoint

**Mei final sign-off required to ratify the sprint output.**

- [x] Mei reads the Founding Hypothesis sentence aloud and confirms she would say this publicly to the design-partner retailers.
- [x] Mei commits to running the June 2 4-week design-partner pilot with the top bet (Approach 3 Templates).
- [x] Mei accepts A1 (template fidelity) as the highest-risk assumption to test first.
- [x] Mei commits to the backup plan (Approach 2 Pooled Analyst) as the explicit pivot if A1 fails.
- [x] Mei accepts the success criteria from the brief have been met: single Founding Hypothesis, top bet + backup, assumption scorecard, public commitability.

**Signed:** Mei (founder, PM/CEO), 2026-05-19 16:30 PT

---

The Foundation Sprint concludes. Storevine moves to design-partner pilot kickoff next.
