---
artifact: opportunity-tree
version: "1.0"
created: YYYY-MM-DD
status: draft
---

# Opportunity Solution Tree: [Outcome Name]

## Desired Outcome

**Outcome Statement:** [Clear, measurable outcome]
**Current State:** [Baseline metric if available]
**Target State:** [Goal metric]
**Timeframe:** [When we want to achieve this]
**Owner:** [Who owns this outcome]

### Why This Outcome Matters
<!-- Connect to business strategy and user value -->

[Explanation of strategic importance]

---

## Visual Tree

```
                    [OUTCOME]
                    [Statement]
                        |
        ┌───────────────┼───────────────┐
        |               |               |
   [Opportunity 1] [Opportunity 2] [Opportunity 3]
        |               |               |
    ┌───┴───┐       ┌───┴───┐       ┌───┴───┐
    |       |       |       |       |       |
[Sol A] [Sol B] [Sol C] [Sol D] [Sol E] [Sol F]
    |       |       |       |       |       |
[Test]  [Test]  [Test]  [Test]  [Test]  [Test]
```

---

## Opportunity Branches

### Opportunity 1: [Customer need or problem]

**Description:** [What is the opportunity from customer's perspective]
**Impact Potential:** High/Medium/Low
**Confidence:** High/Medium/Low

**Evidence:**
- [Source 1]: "[Quote or data point]"
- [Source 2]: "[Quote or data point]"
- [Source 3]: "[Quote or data point]"

#### Solutions

**Solution 1A: [Solution name]**
- Description: [What we would build]
- Effort: [T-shirt size: S/M/L/XL]
- Riskiest Assumption: [What must be true]
- Assumption Test: [How to validate quickly]

**Solution 1B: [Solution name]**
- Description: [What we would build]
- Effort: [T-shirt size: S/M/L/XL]
- Riskiest Assumption: [What must be true]
- Assumption Test: [How to validate quickly]

---

### Opportunity 2: [Customer need or problem]

**Description:** [What is the opportunity from customer's perspective]
**Impact Potential:** High/Medium/Low
**Confidence:** High/Medium/Low

**Evidence:**
- [Source 1]: "[Quote or data point]"
- [Source 2]: "[Quote or data point]"
- [Source 3]: "[Quote or data point]"

#### Solutions

**Solution 2A: [Solution name]**
- Description: [What we would build]
- Effort: [T-shirt size: S/M/L/XL]
- Riskiest Assumption: [What must be true]
- Assumption Test: [How to validate quickly]

**Solution 2B: [Solution name]**
- Description: [What we would build]
- Effort: [T-shirt size: S/M/L/XL]
- Riskiest Assumption: [What must be true]
- Assumption Test: [How to validate quickly]

---

### Opportunity 3: [Customer need or problem]

**Description:** [What is the opportunity from customer's perspective]
**Impact Potential:** High/Medium/Low
**Confidence:** High/Medium/Low

**Evidence:**
- [Source 1]: "[Quote or data point]"
- [Source 2]: "[Quote or data point]"
- [Source 3]: "[Quote or data point]"

#### Solutions

**Solution 3A: [Solution name]**
- Description: [What we would build]
- Effort: [T-shirt size: S/M/L/XL]
- Riskiest Assumption: [What must be true]
- Assumption Test: [How to validate quickly]

**Solution 3B: [Solution name]**
- Description: [What we would build]
- Effort: [T-shirt size: S/M/L/XL]
- Riskiest Assumption: [What must be true]
- Assumption Test: [How to validate quickly]

---

## Prioritization

### Current Focus

**Priority Opportunity:** [Which opportunity we're pursuing first]
**Priority Solution:** [Which solution we're testing first]
**Rationale:** [Why this path over others]

### Opportunity Ranking

| Rank | Opportunity | Impact | Confidence | Effort | Score |
|------|-------------|--------|------------|--------|-------|
| 1 | [Name] | H/M/L | H/M/L | H/M/L | [Calculated] |
| 2 | [Name] | H/M/L | H/M/L | H/M/L | [Calculated] |
| 3 | [Name] | H/M/L | H/M/L | H/M/L | [Calculated] |

### Parking Lot
<!-- Good ideas not pursuing now -->

- [Idea]: [Why not now]
- [Idea]: [Why not now]

---

## Experiments Backlog

| Solution | Assumption | Test Method | Success Criteria | Status |
|----------|------------|-------------|------------------|--------|
| [Name] | [Assumption] | [Method] | [Criteria] | Planned/Running/Complete |
| [Name] | [Assumption] | [Method] | [Criteria] | Planned/Running/Complete |
| [Name] | [Assumption] | [Method] | [Criteria] | Planned/Running/Complete |

---

## Learning Log

<!-- Update as you run experiments -->

| Date | Experiment | Result | Learning | Impact on Tree |
|------|------------|--------|----------|----------------|
| [Date] | [What we tested] | [Pass/Fail] | [What we learned] | [How tree changed] |

---

## Next Steps

- [ ] [Immediate action 1]
- [ ] [Immediate action 2]
- [ ] [Immediate action 3]

---

*This is a living document. Update as you learn from experiments and customer feedback.*
