# Foundation Sprint Founding Hypothesis: [Initiative name] (Day 2 End)

<!-- The capstone artifact of the Foundation Sprint. Strict canonical template; do not paraphrase. -->

## Founding Hypothesis

> **If we help [target customer] solve [important problem] with [approach], they will choose it over [competitors or alternatives] because our solution is [differentiators].**

Slot derivation:

- Target customer: [from Basics target customer statement]
- Important problem: [from Basics important problem statement]
- Approach: [from Magic Lenses top bet]
- Alternatives: [from Basics competitor map; must include "do nothing" if named there]
- Differentiators: [from Differentiation chosen two]

## Assumption Scorecard

[5-7 assumptions recommended; 3-10 accepted. Highest-risk assumption identified at bottom.]

| # | Assumption | Why it matters | Current confidence | Best next test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1 | [Assumption text] | [What breaks if wrong] | [High / Med-high / Med / Med-low / Low] | [Specific test that changes confidence] |
| A2 | [Assumption] | [Why matters] | [Confidence] | [Test] |
| A3 | [Assumption] | [Why matters] | [Confidence] | [Test] |
| A4 | [Assumption] | [Why matters] | [Confidence] | [Test] |
| A5 | [Assumption] | [Why matters] | [Confidence] | [Test] |
| A6 | (Optional) | | | |
| A7 | (Optional) | | | |

**Highest-risk assumption:** [Assumption number]. [One sentence naming why this is the riskiest.]

## Why We Believe This

[3-5 bulleted points naming the evidence base for the hypothesis.]

1. **[Evidence point].** [Brief expansion citing the prior research, interviews, or domain knowledge that supports the hypothesis.]
2. **[Evidence point].**
3. **[Evidence point].**

## What Could Prove Us Wrong

[3-5 bulleted points naming risks. This section is the team's calibration check. If the team cannot name what would invalidate the hypothesis, the hypothesis is being held with overconfidence.]

1. **[Risk].** [What invalidation looks like; what behavior or evidence would change the team's belief.]
2. **[Risk].**
3. **[Risk].**

## Recommended Next Validation Step

**Next step:** [Design Sprint / customer research / landing page experiment / concierge MVP / etc.]

**What it tests:** [Which assumption(s) from the scorecard does this attack first?]

**Owner:** [Name]

**Timeline:** [When does this start; when does it produce signal]

**Decision the next step unlocks:** [Build, refine, pivot, stop. What decision is the team making based on the next step's output?]

## Decider Checkpoint

**Decider sign-off required to close the Foundation Sprint.**

- [ ] Decider ratifies the Founding Hypothesis sentence verbatim.
- [ ] Decider confirms the assumption scorecard and the highest-risk assumption identification.
- [ ] Decider commits to the recommended next validation step with named owner and timeline.
- [ ] Decider acknowledges the backup plan (from Magic Lenses) is real, not theoretical.
- [ ] Decider acknowledges the team will not re-litigate the strategic direction without explicit invalidation evidence from the next test.

**Signed:** [Decider name, role], [ISO date and local time].

**Foundation Sprint closed.**
