---
trigger: model_decision
description: "Plan a sale or promotion that drives revenue without wrecking margin. Use when asked to plan a promotion, a discount/sale campaign, a BFCM/holiday promo, or a product launch offer. Produces a promo plan — objective, the offer mechanic, margin math, audience & channels, timing, messaging, and how you'll measure it — so the discount is a strategy, not a reflex."
---

# Promotion Plan Skill

A promotion is easy to run and easy to lose money on. The difference is knowing *what the offer is for*
(acquire, clear stock, reward loyalty, raise AOV), picking a mechanic that serves that, and checking the
margin before you hit send. This skill turns "let's do 20% off" into a plan with the math, the audience, and a
way to tell if it worked.

## Working from a brief

Given "plan a Black Friday sale", **produce the full plan anyway** — infer a sensible objective, mechanic, and
channel mix for the context, and label assumptions. Where you don't have margin numbers, show the **formula and
a worked example** with placeholder figures *(replace with your numbers)* rather than inventing a result.

## Required Inputs

Ask for these only if they aren't already provided (else infer and label):

- **The goal** — new customers, clearing inventory, higher AOV, loyalty, or revenue in a window.
- **The product(s) & economics** — what's promoted, and the margin (or cost) so the discount is checked.
- **Audience & channels** — who, and where you'll reach them (email, ads, on-site, marketplace).
- **Timing & constraints** — the window, inventory limits, and any brand/price-integrity rules.

## Output Format

### Promotion Plan: [promo]

**1. Objective & success metric** — the one goal, and the number that says it worked.

**2. The offer** — the mechanic and why it fits the goal:

| Mechanic | Best for | Watch-out |
|---|---|---|
| % or $ off | urgency, acquisition | margin hit, discount-trained buyers |
| BOGO / bundle | AOV, stock clearance | margin on the free unit |
| Free shipping threshold | AOV | shipping cost |
| Gift with purchase | perceived value, loyalty | GWP cost |
| Tiered (spend more, save more) | AOV | complexity |

**3. Margin check** — the math: discounted price, margin after discount, and the break-even uplift (how many
more units you must sell to come out ahead). Show the formula + a worked example with placeholders.

**4. Audience & segments** — who gets it (all, new, lapsed, VIP) and any exclusions.

**5. Channels & assets** — where it runs and what's needed (email, on-site banner, ads, marketplace), with the core message per channel.

**6. Timeline** — teaser → launch → reminder → last-chance → end, with dates and owners.

**7. Messaging** — the hook/headline and the urgency/scarcity angle (honest, not fake).

**8. Measurement** — what to track (revenue, units, new customers, margin, redemption) and the read-out after.

## Quality Checks

- [ ] The offer mechanic is chosen to serve the stated objective, not by default
- [ ] Margin after discount is checked, with the break-even uplift shown
- [ ] Audience and any exclusions are defined (don't discount buyers who'd pay full price)
- [ ] Timing has a clear arc and end — scarcity is real, not fabricated
- [ ] A success metric and post-promo read-out are defined
- [ ] Margin numbers are formula + worked example with placeholders, not invented results

## Anti-Patterns

- [ ] Do not discount without the margin math — a deep cut can lose money on every order
- [ ] Do not pick a percentage by reflex — match the mechanic to the goal (AOV vs. acquisition vs. clearance)
- [ ] Do not blast everyone — discounting full-price buyers is margin you didn't need to give away
- [ ] Do not fake urgency/scarcity — countdowns that reset and "last chance" that isn't erode trust
- [ ] Do not run a promo with no success metric — you won't know whether to repeat it

## Based On

Retail promotion & pricing practice — objective-led offer design, margin/break-even analysis, segmentation, and measurement.
