# Assumption board: [initiative] — [date]

**The bet in one line:** [what we're really claiming works]

## The map
| # | Assumption (falsifiable phrasing) | Type | Confidence | Impact if wrong | Test (from the catalog) | Threshold (pre-committed) | Owner | By |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | | problem/pay/switch/find/use/build/economics | H/M/L | H/M/L | | "pass if ≥ …" | | |

## The kill-zone (Low confidence × High impact — test these FIRST)
- #[n]: [assumption] — cheapest test: [from references/cheap-tests.md]

## Deliberately untested (and why that's OK)
- #[n] — [high confidence because: prior evidence/reversible/cheap-if-wrong]

## Results log (append-only)
| # | Test ran | Result vs threshold | Verdict | What changed |
|---|---|---|---|---|

**Standing rule:** thresholds are written before tests run; a failed kill-zone assumption pauses the build conversation, not the learning one.
