---
trigger: model_decision
description: "Write a strategy memo that commits to a bet and says what you won't do. Use when asked to write a strategy memo, articulate a strategy, make the case for a strategic direction, or align the team on where to focus. Produces a strategy memo — the strategic question, the diagnosis, the bet/approach, why now, explicit non-goals (what we're NOT doing), how we'll know it's working, and the risks."
---

# Strategy Memo Skill

Strategy is choosing what *not* to do. A real strategy memo makes a bet and names the sacrifices; a fake
one is a list of goals everyone already agreed with. This skill follows the diagnosis → guiding policy →
coherent actions structure, forces explicit non-goals, and ties the bet to leading indicators — so the
team is aligned on a direction sharp enough to be wrong.

## Required Inputs

Ask for these only if they aren't already provided:

- **The strategic question** — the choice or challenge this memo resolves.
- **The situation** — the honest diagnosis: the market, the competition, your real position and constraints.
- **The bet** — the approach you're choosing and what it's betting on being true.
- **The trade-offs** — what you'll deliberately not do or de-prioritise to make the bet.

## Output Format

### Strategy Memo: [the strategic question]

**1. The question** — the strategic choice being made, in one sentence.

**2. Diagnosis** — the honest read of the situation: what's really going on, the few factors that matter most, and your true position (not the aspirational one). A strategy built on a flattering diagnosis fails.

**3. The bet (guiding policy)** — the chosen approach and, explicitly, **what it assumes is true**. This is the spine — everything else serves it.

**4. Why now** — why this is the right bet at this moment (the window, the catalyst), not last year or next.

**5. What we're NOT doing** — the explicit non-goals and de-prioritisations. If this list is empty, it isn't a strategy — it's a wish list.

**6. Coherent actions** — the few moves that follow from the bet and reinforce each other (not a laundry list of everything).

**7. How we'll know** — the leading indicators that tell you the bet is working (or not) early, and the conditions under which you'd reconsider.

**8. Risks** — what could make the bet wrong, and which assumptions to validate first.

## Quality Checks

- [ ] The diagnosis is honest about the real position, not aspirational
- [ ] The bet states what it assumes to be true — it's falsifiable
- [ ] There's an explicit "what we're NOT doing" list with real sacrifices
- [ ] The actions are few and coherent (mutually reinforcing), not an everything-list
- [ ] Leading indicators are named so you learn early whether it's working
- [ ] "Why now" is answered — the timing is justified

## Anti-Patterns

- [ ] Do not write goals and call it strategy — "grow revenue, delight customers" is a wish list, not a bet
- [ ] Do not skip the non-goals — a strategy that sacrifices nothing commits to nothing
- [ ] Do not build on a flattering diagnosis — naming the uncomfortable truth is the hardest and most important part
- [ ] Do not list every initiative — coherent actions reinforce one bet; a long list dilutes it
- [ ] Do not leave the bet unfalsifiable — if no evidence could prove it wrong, it can't be pressure-tested

## Based On

Good Strategy / Bad Strategy (Richard Rumelt) — diagnosis, guiding policy, coherent action; and the discipline of explicit non-goals.
