# The Renewal Clock: What Happens at T-minus-When

Renewals are lost in the quarters before the date and merely *recorded* at the date. This is the working-backwards timeline and the risk calls at each gate.

## The timeline (enterprise annual; compress proportionally)

**T-120: the health gate.** Full health read (usage trend vs own baseline, champion status, support register, value evidence available). Verdict: green (standard motion) / yellow (save motion NOW — at T-120 you can still change the outcome) / red (executive escalation + honest triage: savable, or manage the exit gracefully).
**T-90: the value packet.** The ledger their champion can defend internally (formulas shown). If you cannot write this packet, that IS the risk finding — no discount fixes a missing value story.
**T-60: the commercial open.** Price/terms on the table — before procurement's calendar forces it. Surprises after T-60 are self-inflicted. Multi-year/expansion motions open here, and only on green health.
**T-30: procurement mechanics.** Security review refreshes, legal redlines, PO process. Boring, schedulable, and the #1 cause of "we meant to renew but it lapsed."
**T-0 and T+30:** the signature is not the end — the T+30 kickoff seeds next year's ledger ("what will we prove this year?"). Next renewal starts now.

## Risk-tier plays

| Tier | Signals | The play |
|---|---|---|
| Green | healthy usage, champion active, value evident | Don't over-touch; standard motion + expansion conversation |
| Yellow | usage drift OR champion change OR value-fog | Save motion: re-onboard the new champion, targeted adoption push on ONE workflow, exec-to-exec touch — 90 days minimum to work |
| Red | multiple signals, silence, competitor evaluation | Executive sponsor call within days; the honest question is "what would make this worth renewing?" — then either a credible turnaround plan with THEIR commitment, or negotiate the best exit (reference, data migration goodwill) |

## Discount discipline

A discount buys time, never health — churn deferred at lower ARR. Rules: discounts only trade for something (term length, case study, expansion commitment, logo rights); never exceed [x]% without the health plan attached; a second consecutive save-discount means the account is churning in slow motion — treat as red regardless of signature.
