# The Cheap-Test Catalog: Right-Sizing Validation

An assumption map is only useful if the risky assumptions get *tested*, and testing dies when every test is a 6-week study. This catalog matches assumption types to their cheapest honest test.

## Match the test to the assumption

| Assumption type | Cheapest honest test | Cost | What it CAN'T tell you |
|---|---|---|---|
| "They have this problem" | 5 behavioural interviews (past-tense only) | days | severity at scale |
| "They'll pay" | pre-order / LOI / paid pilot — anything with money or signature | 1-2 wks | price ceiling |
| "They'll switch" | ask for one real workflow migrated in a pilot | 2 wks | retention |
| "They can find it" | landing page + small spend, measure qualified signups | days | activation |
| "They can use it" | 5-user prototype test on the ONE risky flow | days | long-term habit |
| "We can build it" | timeboxed technical spike on the scariest slice | days | production scale |
| "The economics work" | spreadsheet with today's real numbers, worst-case row filled | hours | future costs |

## The escalation ladder

Test cheapest-first, escalate only on pass: desk check (hours) → conversations (days) → smoke test with a costly signal (weeks) → pilot (weeks-months). A pilot for an assumption a spreadsheet could have killed is the most expensive way to learn arithmetic.

## What makes a signal honest

- **Costly for the giver** — money, signature, time, reputation. Compliments are free; free signals are noise.
- **Pre-committed threshold** — "we proceed if ≥3 of 10 prospects sign the LOI", written *before* the test. Thresholds set after results are rationalisations with a date stamp.
- **Falsifiable** — if no outcome would kill the assumption, it's not a test, it's a ritual.

## Reading results without self-deception

- Passed → promote confidence one level, not to "proven"; note what the test still can't say (the column above)
- Failed → the assumption is the learning; killing the feature it supported is success, write it up as one
- Ambiguous → the test was underpowered or the threshold was fuzzy; fix the test, don't rerun until it agrees with you
