Nigeria Governance and Education Context Brief (seed)

Purpose
Country context for FCDO proposal drafting. Not an official document.

Governance context
Nigeria is a federal republic with 36 states and the FCT. Federal-state relations are complex;
state governments control significant portions of public spending.
Key governance challenges:
- Weak public financial management at subnational level.
- Limited legislative oversight capacity.
- Pervasive corruption in procurement and service delivery.
- Inconsistent civil service reform implementation.
- Low citizen trust in government institutions.

Education system overview
- Federal Ministry of Education sets policy; states implement.
- Universal Basic Education Commission (UBEC) channels federal grants to states.
- Significant disparities: south-west states outperform north-west and north-east.
- Teacher absenteeism and classroom shortages are documented challenges.
- Out-of-school children estimated at 10+ million; girls disproportionately affected.

Political economy factors
- Gubernatorial elections shape state-level reform appetite.
- Traditional leaders (emirs, chiefs) hold significant influence over community norms, including on girls' education.
- Religious institutions are key community gatekeepers in northern states.
- Oil revenue dependence creates fiscal volatility at federal and state level.

Data landscape
- National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): key economic and demographic data.
- EMIS (Education Management Information System): school enrollment data, variable quality by state.
- GIFMIS: Federal financial management system; state equivalents vary.
- NPOWER and social protection data through National Social Investment Programme.

Key risks for programming
- Security deterioration in north-east (Borno, Yobe, Adamawa) and north-west.
- State government policy reversals after elections.
- Implementation partner capacity constraints in remote LGAs.
- Currency and exchange rate volatility affecting budget projections.
