Senegal Climate and Urban Context Brief (seed)

Purpose
Country context for AFD proposal drafting. Not an official document.

Economic and political context
Senegal is a stable Francophone West African democracy with a GDP growth rate of ~6% (pre-2020 average).
Recent oil and gas discoveries (Sangomar field) add fiscal potential but governance risks.
President Faye elected in 2024; administration continues Senegal 2050 Vision priorities.
Key ministries for development programming:
- Ministère des Finances et du Budget
- Ministère de l'Environnement et du Développement Durable
- Ministère des Collectivités Territoriales

Climate risk profile
- Coastal erosion: 60% of Senegal's coast is eroding; Saint-Louis and Touba-Médina face inundation.
- Sahel drought: northern groundnut basin affected by rainfall variability (±20% annual deviation).
- Urban flooding: Dakar suburbs (Pikine, Guédiawaye) flood annually.
- Rainfall trend: shifting to shorter, more intense rains in southern Casamance region.

Urban profile
- Dakar metropolitan area: ~3.5 million people; 70%+ in informal settlements.
- Secondary cities (Thiès, Kaolack, Ziguinchor, Saint-Louis) growing rapidly.
- Municipal own-source revenues typically cover only 30-40% of operating expenditures.
- Property tax collection is low; AAMC programme supports reform.

Agricultural profile
- Agriculture employs ~60% of rural population.
- Key crops: groundnut, millet, sorghum, rice (import-dependent).
- Smallholder farms predominate; average plot size 1-3 ha.
- Extension services are under-resourced and gender-unequal.

Data landscape
- ANSD (Agence Nationale de la Statistique et de la Démographie): national statistics.
- DGPRE (Direction de la Gestion et de la Planification des Ressources en Eau): water data.
- Direction des Eaux et Forêts: forest and land use data.
- Sentinel satellite data available for land use change monitoring.

Key risks
- Political transition uncertainty following 2024 elections.
- Rapid urbanisation outpacing municipal capacity.
- Oil revenue management and Dutch disease risk.
- Locust and climate shocks compounding agricultural vulnerability.
