---
ref_id: PR24
ref_type: Process
ref_name: "Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis"
version: "1.0.0"
status: Active
pmbok8_source: "PMBOK8 Guide §2.7.2.3"
companion_ref_shortcode: PG-APG-5.21
related_skills:
  - SKL-03-12
related_artifacts:
  - A19
  - A20
file_path: "reference/processes/PR24-perform-quantitative-risk-analysis.md"
---
# PR24 — Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis

## Classification
- **Performance Domain:** Risk
- **Process Group:** Planning (not required for all projects)
- **PMBOK 8 Reference:** Section 2.7.2.3
- **Process Groups Practice Guide Reference:** Section 5.21

---

## Purpose
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis is the process of numerically analyzing the combined effect of identified individual project risks and other sources of uncertainty on overall project objectives. The key benefit is that it quantifies overall project risk exposure and provides additional quantitative risk information to support risk response planning.

---

## Inputs
- Project management plan (risk management plan, scope baseline, schedule baseline, cost baseline)
- Project documents: assumption log, basis of estimates, cost estimates, cost forecasts, duration estimates, milestone list, resource requirements, risk register, risk report, schedule forecasts
- Enterprise environmental factors
- Organizational process assets

---

## Tools & Techniques
- Expert judgment
- Data gathering (interviews)
- Interpersonal and team skills (facilitation)
- Representations of uncertainty (probability distributions: triangular, normal, lognormal, beta, uniform, discrete)
- Data analysis: simulations (Monte Carlo), sensitivity analysis (tornado diagram), decision tree analysis, influence diagrams

---

## Outputs
- Project documents updates (risk report)

---

## Key Concepts
- Not required for all projects; used most for large, complex, or strategically important projects.
- Monte Carlo simulation calculates multiple project duration/cost outcomes using probability distributions.
- Tornado diagram shows which individual risks have the most potential impact on project outcomes.
- Quantitative risk analysis is the only reliable method to assess overall project risk through evaluating the aggregated effect of all individual risks.
- Outputs feed directly into Plan Risk Responses.

---

## Source Traceability
- PMBOK 8: Section 2.7.2.3
- Process Groups Practice Guide: Section 5.21

---

## Cross-References

| Related Item | Type | Relationship |
|---|---|---|
| A19 | Artifact | Primary artifact produced or updated by this process |
| A20 | Artifact | Primary artifact produced or updated by this process |
| SKL-03-12 | Skill | Skill that executes this process |

## Practitioner Notes

Practitioners executing this process should seek answers to the following questions:
1. Is quantitative analysis applied only where sufficient data and model reliability exist?
2. Are Monte Carlo simulation parameters documented and justified?
3. Is the confidence interval for project completion dates and costs reported?
4. Are key risk drivers identified and communicated to decision-makers?
5. Are reserve estimates derived from quantitative outputs rather than approximations?

## Change Log

| Version | Date | Description | Author |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0.1 | 2026-06-03 | Added Cross-References, Practitioner Notes, and Change Log sections (F-12 Batch 4) | PMO Director |
