# Inversion Thinking

Reference guideline for Wing-1 deep-thinking work — Carl Jacobi's
"invert, always invert" applied to **decisions and arguments**, not
diffs. The pre-mortem on a strategy, an argument, or a written plan;
distinct from
[`adversarial-review`](../../../.agent-src.uncondensed/skills/adversarial-review/SKILL.md)
which stress-tests **diffs**. Adopted under the **Reference-Guideline
Sunset Policy** (see frontmatter `upstream` / `refresh_trigger` keys)
and cross-referenced from:

- [`refine-prompt`](../../../.agent-src.uncondensed/skills/refine-prompt/SKILL.md)
  — pre-mortem on a free-form prompt before planning.
- [`refine-ticket`](../../../.agent-src.uncondensed/skills/refine-ticket/SKILL.md)
  — pre-mortem on a Jira / Linear ticket before estimation.
- [`threat-modeling`](../../../.agent-src.uncondensed/skills/threat-modeling/SKILL.md)
  — abuse-case generation pairs with goal inversion.
- [`improve-before-implement`](../../../.agent-src.uncondensed/rules/improve-before-implement.md)
  — challenge weak requirements before writing code.

> **Core principle:** "Invert, always invert." — Carl Jacobi

**Scope split with `adversarial-review`:** this guideline targets
**decisions** (will the plan work? what guarantees failure?
which assumptions are load-bearing?). `adversarial-review` targets
**diffs** (what edge cases break this code? where do null / race /
auth bugs live?). Cross-link, do not merge.

## When to Use

Ideal for:
- 🎯 Mitigating risks and avoiding failure
- 🔍 Discovering hidden problems and obstacles
- 💡 Breaking through mental blocks
- ⚠️ Stress-testing plans for fragility
- 🛡️ Building defensive strategies

## Three Inversion Modes

### 1. Goal Inversion

**Forward**: How to achieve goal X?
**Inverted**: How to guarantee failure to achieve X?

```markdown
## Goal Inversion Analysis

Forward Goal: [Article's main recommendation]

Inverted Questions:
1. What behaviors guarantee failure?
2. Which factors completely sabotage the plan?
3. What's the worst possible outcome?

Insights:
- Must-avoid behaviors: [List]
- Critical risk points: [Identify]
- Defensive strategy: [Formulate]
```

### 2. Assumption Inversion

**Forward**: If assumption A holds, then conclusion B is valid
**Inverted**: What happens if assumption A doesn't hold?

```markdown
## Assumption Inversion Test

Article's core assumptions:
1. [Assumption 1]
2. [Assumption 2]
3. [Assumption 3]

Inversion Test:
- If assumption 1 is reversed, how does the conclusion change?
- Under what conditions does this assumption fail?
- Are there counterexamples?

Discovered vulnerabilities: [List]
```

### 3. Causality Inversion

**Forward**: A causes B (cause to effect)
**Inverted**: To get B, what must be true? (effect to cause)

```markdown
## Causality Inversion

Desired Outcome: [Article's promised result]

Backward Derivation:
- To achieve this, what conditions must be met?
- Are all these conditions mentioned in the article?
- What critical factors are missing?

Necessary Conditions:
✓ [Met conditions]
✗ [Unmentioned necessary conditions] ← Important discovery
```

## Application Method

### Step 1: Identify Forward Claims

```markdown
## Article's Forward Claims

Core thesis: [Extract]
Recommended actions: [List]
Expected results: [Describe]
```

### Step 2: Apply Four Inversion Questions

#### ❌ Q1: How to guarantee failure?

```markdown
Most effective failure methods:
1. [Opposite of recommendations]
2. [Ignored critical factors]
3. [Problems from over-execution]

Insight: Avoid these traps
```

#### ⚠️ Q2: When would the advice backfire?

```markdown
Backfire scenarios:
- Wrong timing: [Explain]
- Wrong context: [Explain]
- Insufficient resources: [Explain]

Prerequisites: [Unstated but necessary conditions]
```

#### 🔍 Q3: What risks are missing?

```markdown
Risks article doesn't mention:
1. [Hidden risk 1]
2. [Hidden risk 2]
3. [Hidden risk 3]

Risk mitigation: [Supplement]
```

#### 🎯 Q4: What's reasonable about the opposite view?

```markdown
Contrary perspectives:
- [Counter-argument 1]
- [Counter-argument 2]

Merit in opposition:
- [Analysis]
- [When might the opposite be better]

Balanced view: [Synthesized judgment]
```

### Step 3: Build Failure-Mode Checklist

```markdown
## Failure Prevention Checklist

Based on inversion, avoid:
- [ ] [Failure mode 1] → Prevention: [Specific action]
- [ ] [Failure mode 2] → Prevention: [Specific action]
- [ ] [Failure mode 3] → Prevention: [Specific action]

Early warning signs:
- 🚨 [Signal 1] → Indicates moving toward failure
- 🚨 [Signal 2] → Requires immediate adjustment
```

### Step 4: Restructure Action Plan

```markdown
## Defensive Action Plan

Original plan: [Article's recommendation]

Optimized plan (with inversion insights):
1. [Original action] + [Risk mitigation]
2. [Added preventive step]
3. [Established safety margin]

Stop-Doing List:
- ❌ [Explicitly what NOT to do]
```

## Practical Examples

### Example 1: Productivity Article

**Article Claim**: "Waking up at 5am is key to success"

#### Inversion Analysis:

**Forward**: How to become an early riser?
**Inverted**: How to guarantee the 5am plan fails?

**Failure Checklist**:
1. Stay up until 3am → Insight: Total sleep matters more than wake time
2. No compelling morning reason → Insight: Need clear morning purpose
3. Inconsistent weekend schedule → Insight: Consistency is key
4. Alarm within arm's reach → Insight: Environmental design matters

**Inversion Discoveries**:
- ⚠️ Article ignores: Individual chronotype differences ("night owls")
- ⚠️ Fails when: Work requires night shifts
- ⚠️ Backfires: Sleep deprivation reduces productivity

**Optimized Recommendation**:
- Don't chase wake time, chase:
  1. Sufficient sleep (7-9 hours)
  2. Consistent schedule
  3. High-value morning activities

### Example 2: Business Strategy

**Article Claim**: "Rapid expansion to capture market"

#### Inverted Q: How to ensure expansion fails?

**Failure List**:
1. Expand before product-market fit → Insight: Need PMF first
2. Poor cash flow management → Insight: Growth speed ≠ healthy growth
3. Team quality can't keep up → Insight: Organizational capacity is bottleneck
4. Neglect existing customers → Insight: Retention vs. acquisition balance

**Necessary Conditions Check**:
```markdown
Prerequisites for rapid expansion:
✓ Proven business model (article mentions)
✗ Adequate funding reserves (article omits)
✗ Replicable operational processes (article omits)
✗ Strong team culture (article omits)
```

**Inversion Insight**:
Article only discusses "gas pedal", not "brakes". Need to add:
- Expansion stop conditions
- Stage-gate validation
- Retreat plan

## Integration with Other Frameworks

### + Critical Thinking
```markdown
Critical Thinking: Find argument holes
Inversion: What happens if the holes lead to failure?
```

### + First Principles
```markdown
First Principles: Strip to essentials
Inversion: Test fragility of essential assumptions
```

### + Systems Thinking
```markdown
Systems Thinking: See reinforcing loops
Inversion: Identify negative loops and collapse points
```

### + Mental Models
```markdown
Mental Models: Multi-angle analysis
Inversion: Consider the opposite for each angle
```

## Inversion Toolbox

### Tool 1: Pre-Mortem

```markdown
## Pre-Mortem Analysis

Imagine it's 1 year later, the plan completely failed.

Failure causes:
1. [Most likely failure reason 1]
2. [Most likely failure reason 2]
3. [Most likely failure reason 3]

Based on this, current actions should be:
- [Prevention measure 1]
- [Prevention measure 2]
```

### Tool 2: Reverse Engineering

```markdown
## Working Backwards from Results

Ideal outcome: [Describe]

Reverse steps:
← Step N: [Final step]
← Step N-1: [Previous step]
← ...
← Step 1: [First step]

Article's missing steps: [Identify]
```

### Tool 3: Not-To-Do List

```markdown
## Not-To-Do List (More Important Than To-Do)

Based on inversion, explicitly avoid:
1. ❌ [Failure-causing behavior 1]
2. ❌ [Failure-causing behavior 2]
3. ❌ [Failure-causing behavior 3]

Stop signals:
When [X signal] appears, immediately stop
```

### Tool 4: Devil's Advocate

```markdown
## Playing Devil's Advocate

Defending the opposite view:
- Claim: [Contrary position]
- Evidence: [Supporting counter-evidence]
- Context: [When opposite is better]

Balanced conclusion:
Not A or B, but [middle path]
```

## Common Pitfalls

### ❌ Excessive Negativity
- Wrong: Use inversion to reject everything
- Right: Use inversion to optimize plans, not abandon them

### ❌ Analysis Paralysis
- Wrong: See too many risks, can't act
- Right: Identify risks → Design mitigations → Act

### ❌ Ignoring Probability
- Wrong: Treat low-probability risks same as high-probability
- Right: Risk assessment = Probability × Impact

## Practice Exercises

### Exercise 1: Daily Decisions
For any daily decision, ask:
- "How to ensure this decision is wrong?"
- What blind spots did I discover?

### Exercise 2: Inverted Reading
For any advice article, automatically ask:
- "When would this advice be harmful?"
- "What prerequisites are missing?"

### Exercise 3: Pre-Mortem Planning
Before any plan, do 15-minute pre-mortem:
- Assume failure, list causes
- Modify plan to avoid these causes

## Key Quotes

> "It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent."
> — Charlie Munger

> "Tell me where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there."
> — Carl Jacobi

> "If you want to improve, be content to be thought foolish and stupid."
> — Epictetus (On how inversion may contradict conventional wisdom)

---

**Remember**: Inversion's goal isn't pessimism, but robustness. By seeing failure paths, we design better success paths.

---

## ADOPT citation

Adopted from [`ginobefun/deep-reading-analyst-skill`](https://github.com/ginobefun/deep-reading-analyst-skill) @ commit `26cd7dc9` · `src/deep-reading-analyst/references/inversion_thinking.md` · MIT License.
