\section{The AGI-Runtime Hypothesis}

Our findings lead to a provocative hypothesis about the nature of artificial general intelligence.

\subsection{AGI is Not a Model}

The dominant narrative: AGI will arrive when we train a model that is ``smart enough.'' We propose a complementary view:

\begin{figure}[ht]
\centering
\begin{tikzpicture}[
  box/.style={rectangle, draw=#1!60, fill=#1!6, rounded corners=4pt,
    text width=10cm, inner sep=8pt, font=\small},
]
  \node[box=sared] (model) {
    \textbf{\color{sared}Model-Centric View (dominant narrative)}\\[3pt]
    {\scriptsize AGI = sufficiently powerful model. Scale parameters. Improve data. Refine architecture.}\\
    {\scriptsize\itshape ``Intelligence lives in the weights.''}
  };
  \node[box=sagreen, below=0.4cm of model] (runtime) {
    \textbf{\color{sagreen}Runtime-Centric View (our hypothesis)}\\[3pt]
    {\scriptsize AGI = capable model + agent runtime + environmental grounding.}\\
    {\scriptsize\itshape ``Intelligence emerges from the system, not just the model.''}
  };
  \node[draw=sapurple!60, fill=sapurple!6, rounded corners=3pt,
    inner sep=6pt, font=\small\itshape, below=0.4cm of runtime, text width=10cm, align=center] {
    AGI is not a model. AGI is an engineering paradigm: \textbf{Model + Runtime + Environment.}
  };
\end{tikzpicture}
\caption{Two views of AGI. We argue the runtime is not scaffolding---it is half the intelligence.}
\label{fig:agi-views}
\end{figure}

\subsection{What Coding Agents Add to Models}

\begin{figure}[ht]
\centering
\begin{tikzpicture}[
  capbox/.style={rectangle, draw=#1!60, fill=#1!8, rounded corners=3pt,
    minimum height=0.5cm, font=\scriptsize, inner xsep=6pt},
  node distance=0.25cm,
]
  % Model alone
  \node[font=\scriptsize\bfseries, sagray] (l1) {Model alone:};
  \node[capbox=sagray, right=0.5cm of l1] (m1) {reason};
  \node[capbox=sagray, right=of m1] (m2) {generate};
  \node[font=\scriptsize\itshape, sagray, right=0.3cm of m2] {stateless, no actions, no tools};

  % Model + Runtime
  \node[font=\scriptsize\bfseries, sagreen, below=0.6cm of l1] (l2) {Model + Runtime:};
  \node[capbox=sagray, right=0.5cm of l2] (r1) {reason};
  \node[capbox=sagray, right=of r1] (r2) {generate};
  \node[capbox=sagreen, right=of r2] (r3) {execute};
  \node[capbox=sagreen, right=of r3] (r4) {persist};
  \node[capbox=sagreen, right=of r4] (r5) {tools};
  \node[capbox=sagreen, right=of r5] (r6) {verify};

  \draw[decorate, decoration={brace, amplitude=4pt}, thick, sagreen!70]
    ([yshift=-3pt]r3.south west) -- ([yshift=-3pt]r6.south east)
    node[midway, below=5pt, font=\tiny\itshape, sagreen!80!black] {added by agent runtime};
\end{tikzpicture}
\caption{The agent runtime adds execution, persistence, tool use, and verification---capabilities that close the gap between language models and general intelligence.}
\label{fig:model-vs-runtime}
\end{figure}

\subsection{The Trajectory}

\begin{figure}[ht]
\centering
\begin{tikzpicture}[
  era/.style={rectangle, draw=#1!60, fill=#1!8, rounded corners=4pt,
    text width=9cm, inner sep=6pt, font=\small, align=left},
  node distance=0.3cm,
]
  \node[era=sagray] (e1) {
    {\scriptsize\bfseries\color{sagray}2023:} Model + chat interface. \textit{Can reason, cannot act.}
  };
  \node[era=sablue, below=of e1] (e2) {
    {\scriptsize\bfseries\color{sablue}2024:} Model + code execution. \textit{Can act, limited tools.}
  };
  \node[era=sagreen, below=of e2] (e3) {
    {\scriptsize\bfseries\color{sagreen}2025:} Model + agent runtime + MCP + sandbox. \textit{Can act, use tools, persist.}
  };
  \node[era=sapurple, below=of e3] (e4) {
    {\scriptsize\bfseries\color{sapurple}2026:} Model + multi-agent runtime + persistent memory. \textit{Can delegate, remember.}
  };
  \node[era=saorange, below=of e4] (e5) {
    {\scriptsize\bfseries\color{saorange}Future:} Model + full environmental grounding. \textit{General intelligence?}
  };

  \draw[-{Stealth[length=2.5mm]}, thick, sagray!40] (e1) -- (e2);
  \draw[-{Stealth[length=2.5mm]}, thick, sagray!40] (e2) -- (e3);
  \draw[-{Stealth[length=2.5mm]}, thick, sagray!40] (e3) -- (e4);
  \draw[-{Stealth[length=2.5mm]}, thick, sagray!40] (e4) -- (e5);

  \node[font=\tiny\itshape, sagray, right=0.3cm of e3.east] {$\leftarrow$ we are here};
\end{tikzpicture}
\caption{The AGI trajectory. Each step adds runtime capability, not just model capability.}
\label{fig:agi-trajectory}
\end{figure}

The Meta-Agent Paradigm is the architectural pattern that enables this trajectory. Each generation of coding agent adds more environmental grounding. The model gets smarter, yes---but the runtime gets more capable too. AGI, if it arrives, will be a \textit{system}, not a model.

\subsection{Implications}

\begin{enumerate}[nosep]
\item \textbf{Agent runtimes are as important as models.} Equal attention should be paid to runtime design: tool ecosystems, sandbox architectures, persistence mechanisms.

\item \textbf{Template marketplaces will emerge.} Agent templates will be traded like WordPress themes---domain experts author, developers consume.

\item \textbf{The ``agent engineer'' role shifts.} Building agents becomes less about software engineering and more about domain expertise and prompt design.

\item \textbf{Agent frameworks may become unnecessary.} If coding agents can be redirected via Markdown, SDK-based frameworks lose their value proposition for the majority of use cases.
\end{enumerate}

\subsection{Limitations}

\begin{itemize}[nosep]
\item \textbf{Physical-world tasks}: Robotic manipulation, real-time sensory input---these require hardware, not templates.
\item \textbf{Real-time constraints}: Sub-second response requirements exceed current agent latencies.
\item \textbf{Regulatory compliance}: Healthcare, finance may require more controlled environments.
\item \textbf{Template quality ceiling}: Agent Redirection is bounded by template quality. But a bad template costs hours to fix; a bad SDK integration costs weeks.
\item \textbf{Runtime dependency}: If the underlying agent cannot perform an action, no template can add it (though MCP partially addresses this).
\end{itemize}
