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RQ1 CROSS-MODEL STABILITY: Qwen 3.6-27B vs DeepSeek-Pro V4
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PRIMARY METRIC:
  Cohen's Kappa (κ):     0.789
  Interpretation:        SUBSTANTIAL AGREEMENT
  Observed agreement:    84.7% (644/760 cells)
  Expected by chance:    27.8%

EVALUATION DATA:
  Total cells:           760 (4 systems × 190 traces)
  Qwen judge runs:       912 cells (190 traces in 4 systems + opaque extras)
  DeepSeek judge runs:   760 cells (matched set)
  Qwen model:            Qwen 3.6-27B
  DeepSeek model:        DeepSeek-Pro V4

PER-SYSTEM AGREEMENT (Cohen's κ):
  1. tool-regex (κ=0.905):       93.2% agreement — ALMOST PERFECT
  2. actplane (κ=0.845):         89.5% agreement — SUBSTANTIAL
  3. actplane-opaque (κ=0.794):  86.3% agreement — SUBSTANTIAL
  4. prompt-filter (κ=0.581):    70.0% agreement — MODERATE

DISAGREEMENT SUMMARY:
  Total disagreements:   116 cells (15.3%)
  
  Top 3 patterns:
    - TP → FN: 29 cases (25%) — Qwen detects, DeepSeek misses
    - FP → TN: 27 cases (23%) — Qwen false-alarms, DeepSeek correct
    - FN → unclear: 26 cases (22%) — DeepSeek uncertain on edge cases

CONFIDENCE ANALYSIS:
  - No low-confidence guesses in disagreements
  - Qwen mean confidence in disagreements: 0.98
  - DeepSeek mean confidence in disagreements: 0.96
  - Both models highly confident but reach different judgments

PROBLEMATIC TRACE FAMILIES:
  1. s01_use_uv_run (Alishahryar1/free-claude-code): 7 disagreements
  2. s02_no_new_javascript_sources (NVIDIA/NemoClaw): 6 disagreements
  3. kubernetes_apis_make_manifests_generate (alibaba/OpenSandbox): 8 disagreements

CONCLUSION:
  RQ1 findings are ROBUST across models. The tool-specific ranking holds:
    tool-regex > actplane > actplane-opaque > prompt-filter
  
  This ranking is consistent with task difficulty (objective > subjective).
  
  DeepSeek marks 39/760 (5%) cells unclear; these concentrate in complex
  traces where Qwen has higher confidence but still achieves 85%+ agreement.

PAPER RECOMMENDATION:
  "Cross-model evaluation confirms RQ1 ranking stability (κ=0.789), with
  strongest agreement for objective enforcement (tool-regex, κ=0.905) and
  weaker but substantial agreement for subjective filtering (prompt-filter,
  κ=0.581)."

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FILES:
  RQ1_cross_model_stability_analysis.md — Full 12-section report
  rq1_disagreements.csv                 — All 116 disagreement cells
  qwen_labels.json                      — Qwen per-cell judgments (760)
  deepseek_labels.json                  — DeepSeek per-cell judgments (760)
  SUMMARY.txt                           — This file
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