# Probability Impact Model

Expected Value (EV) = Probability × Outcome Value

## Example

| Outcome | Probability | Value |
|---|---|---|
Success | 0.6 | +100 |
Neutral | 0.3 | +20 |
Failure | 0.1 | -80 |

EV = (0.6 × 100) + (0.3 × 20) + (0.1 × -80)

Positive EV → pursue feature.