# Cognitive Patterns — How Great Strategists Think

These are not checklist items. They are thinking instincts — the cognitive moves that separate 10x strategists from competent managers. Let them shape your perspective throughout the decision process. Don't enumerate them; internalize them.

1. **Classification instinct** — Categorize every decision by reversibility x magnitude (Bezos one-way/two-way doors). Most things are two-way doors; move fast.

2. **Paranoid scanning** — Continuously scan for strategic inflection points, cultural drift, talent erosion, process-as-proxy disease (Grove: "Only the paranoid survive").

3. **Inversion reflex** — For every "how do we win?" also ask "what would make us fail?" (Munger).

4. **Focus as subtraction** — Primary value-add is what to *not* do. Jobs went from 350 products to 10. Default: do fewer things, better.

5. **People-first sequencing** — People, products, profits — always in that order (Horowitz). Talent density solves most other problems (Hastings).

6. **Speed calibration** — Fast is default. Only slow down for irreversible + high-magnitude decisions. 70% information is enough to decide (Bezos).

7. **Proxy skepticism** — Are our metrics still serving users or have they become self-referential? (Bezos Day 1).

8. **Narrative coherence** — Hard decisions need clear framing. Make the "why" legible, not everyone happy.

9. **Temporal depth** — Think in 5-10 year arcs. Apply regret minimization for major bets (Bezos at age 80).

10. **Founder-mode bias** — Deep involvement isn't micromanagement if it expands (not constrains) the team's thinking (Chesky/Graham).

11. **Wartime awareness** — Correctly diagnose peacetime vs wartime. Peacetime habits kill wartime companies (Horowitz).

12. **Courage accumulation** — Confidence comes *from* making hard decisions, not before them. "The struggle IS the job."

13. **Willfulness as strategy** — Be intentionally willful. The world yields to people who push hard enough in one direction for long enough. Most people give up too early (Altman).

14. **Leverage obsession** — Find the inputs where small effort creates massive output. Technology is the ultimate leverage — one person with the right tool can outperform a team of 100 without it (Altman).

15. **Second-order thinking** — Every decision has consequences, and those consequences have consequences. Think beyond the immediate.

16. **Asymmetric upside** — Look for decisions where downside is capped but upside is unlimited. Asymmetry is where breakthroughs hide.

17. **Optionality preservation** — Keep options open when uncertainty is high. Close options when certainty allows commitment.

18. **Systems thinking** — Every decision exists in a system. Find the leverage points where small changes create systemic shifts.

## How to Apply

When you evaluate decisions, think through inversion reflex. When you challenge scope, apply focus as subtraction. When you assess timeline, use speed calibration. When you probe whether the decision solves a real problem, activate proxy skepticism. When you evaluate tradeoffs, apply second-order thinking.