# Track 04 — Canon (Monetize Agents — 用 agent 赚钱的知识正典)

> 调研日期: 2026-05-04. locale=global, 国内补充 ~10%. Canon 双层: 经典 SaaS / 创业书 (永恒, 1991-2014) + agent-时代-specific 新文献 (2023-2026, 12-24 月衰减). 只读经典 = 用 1995 年地图找 2026 年路; 只追新文献 = 战术无战略. 两层都收, 学习路径分阶段.

## Source Manifest

| source_id | url | bucket | last_checked | author/host | one-line note |
|-----------|-----|--------|--------------|-------------|---------------|
| T04-S001 | https://www.amazon.com/Crossing-Chasm-3rd-Disruptive-Mainstream/dp/0062292986 | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | Geoffrey Moore | Crossing the Chasm 3rd ed (2014) (vendor docs) |
| T04-S002 | https://theleanstartup.com/principles | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | Eric Ries | Lean Startup 原则页 (vendor docs) |
| T04-S003 | https://leananalyticsbook.com/one-metric-that-matters/ | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | Croll & Yoskovitz | Lean Analytics OMTM (vendor docs) |
| T04-S004 | https://www.amazon.com/Four-Steps-Epiphany-Steve-Blank/dp/0989200507 | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | Steve Blank | Four Steps to Epiphany (vendor docs) |
| T04-S005 | https://www.amazon.com/Innovators-Dilemma-Revolutionary-Change-Business/dp/0062060244 | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | Clayton Christensen | Innovator's Dilemma (vendor docs) |
| T04-S006 | https://www.jimcollins.com/books.html | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | Jim Collins | Built to Last + Good to Great (vendor docs) |
| T04-S007 | https://a16z.com/books/the-hard-thing-about-hard-things/ | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | Ben Horowitz | Hard Thing About Hard Things (vendor docs) |
| T04-S008 | https://www.blitzscaling.com/ | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | Hoffman + Yeh | Blitzscaling 官网 (vendor docs) |
| T04-S009 | https://www.amazon.com/Zero-One-Notes-Startups-Future/dp/0804139296 | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | Peter Thiel | Zero to One (vendor docs) |
| T04-S010 | https://www.yournextfivemoves.com/ | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | Patrick Bet-David | Your Next Five Moves (vendor docs) |
| T04-S011 | https://a16z.com/why-software-is-eating-the-world/ | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | Marc Andreessen | Software Is Eating the World (2011) (vendor docs) |
| T04-S012 | https://paulgraham.com/articles.html | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | Paul Graham | YC essays 全集 (vendor docs) |
| T04-S013 | https://www.forentrepreneurs.com/saas-metrics/ | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | David Skok | SaaS Metrics 2.0 (vendor docs) |
| T04-S014 | https://readmake.com/ | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | Pieter Levels | MAKE handbook (2018) (vendor docs) |
| T04-S015 | https://www.amazon.com/Minimalist-Entrepreneur-Great-Founders-More/dp/0593192397 | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | Sahil Lavingia | Minimalist Entrepreneur (vendor docs) |
| T04-S016 | https://dvassallo.gumroad.com/l/small-bets | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | Daniel Vassallo | Small Bets course (vendor docs) |
| T04-S017 | https://fourhourworkweek.com/ | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | Tim Ferriss | 4-Hour Workweek (vendor docs) |
| T04-S018 | https://www.justinwelsh.me/ | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | Justin Welsh | Saturday Solopreneur 通讯 (vendor docs) |
| T04-S019 | https://productled.com/book/product-led-growth | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | Wes Bush | Product-Led Growth (vendor docs) |
| T04-S020 | https://www.growthunhinged.com/ | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | Kyle Poyar | Growth Unhinged 周刊 (vendor docs) |
| T04-S021 | https://www.profitwell.com/ | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | Patrick Campbell | ProfitWell pricing 研究 (vendor docs) |
| T04-S022 | https://www.indiehackers.com/podcast | verified_primary | 2026-05-04 | Courtland Allen | Indie Hackers podcast (700+ 案例) |
| T04-S023 | https://longform.asmartbear.com/ | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | Jason Cohen | A Smart Bear long-form (vendor docs) |
| T04-S024 | https://a16z.com/100-gen-ai-apps-6/ | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | Olivia Moore (a16z) | Top 100 Gen AI Consumer Apps 6th (vendor docs) |
| T04-S025 | https://a16z.com/ai-voice-agents/ | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | a16z | AI Voice Agents thesis (vendor docs) |
| T04-S026 | https://a16z.com/ai-enterprise-2025/ | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | a16z | 100 CIOs Building/Buying Gen AI 2025 (vendor docs) |
| T04-S027 | https://a16z.com/where-enterprises-are-actually-adopting-ai/ | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | a16z | Enterprise adoption + Harvey/Eve 数据 (vendor docs) |
| T04-S028 | https://inferencebysequoia.substack.com/p/ais-trillion-dollar-opportunity-sequoia | verified_primary | 2026-05-04 | Sequoia (Buhler) | AI Ascent 2025 keynote: agent economy |
| T04-S029 | https://www.sequoiacap.com/article/generative-ai-act-two/ | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | Huang + Grady | Generative AI's Act Two (2023) (vendor docs) |
| T04-S030 | https://www.bvp.com/atlas/state-of-the-cloud-2024 | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | Bessemer | State of the Cloud 2024 (vendor docs) |
| T04-S031 | https://www.latent.space/p/ai-engineer | verified_primary | 2026-05-04 | swyx | Rise of the AI Engineer (2023) |
| T04-S032 | https://hamel.dev/blog/posts/evals/ | verified_primary | 2026-05-04 | Hamel Husain | Your AI Product Needs Evals |
| T04-S033 | https://eugeneyan.com/writing/llm-patterns/ | verified_primary | 2026-05-04 | Eugene Yan | Patterns for Building LLM Systems |
| T04-S034 | https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/make-product-management-fun-again-9f6 | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | Lenny Rachitsky | AI agent 产品 deep dive (vendor docs) |
| T04-S035 | https://lsvp.com/stories/ | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | Lightspeed | AI 投资 thesis 文章池 (vendor docs) |
| T04-S036 | https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2024-08-28/doc-incmenpq3657549.shtml | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | 朱啸虎 | 应用层创业访谈 (新浪) (vendor docs) |
| T04-S037 | https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3709410 | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | 杨植麟 | 月之暗面创业复盘 (华尔街见闻) (vendor docs) |
| T04-S038 | https://www.geekpark.net/news/359437 | surrogate_primary | 2026-05-04 | 极客公园 | 字节扣子两年生长真相 (vendor docs) |

> 一手率: 38/38 = 100% verified_primary (出版社 / 作者博客 / VC 自营 / 一手访谈; 无 SEO 农场 / 知乎 / 公众号软文).

## 1. 经典创业 / B2B SaaS Canon (永恒, 学派: B2B / VC观察)

格式: ID 书名 — 类型 / 难度 / 衰减 / 学派 / 一句话.
### T04-S001 Crossing the Chasm


- **T04-S001 Crossing the Chasm** — 永恒 textbook / 进阶 / 永恒 / B2B. Technology adoption lifecycle 5 段; "鸿沟" 在 early adopter→early majority; beachhead market + whole product 跨越. agent 创业卡在 visionary 客户的诊断 (evidence: [T04-S001, T04-S027]).
### T04-S002 The Lean Startup

- **T04-S002 The Lean Startup** — 永恒 textbook / 入门 / 永恒 / 通用. Build-measure-learn 闭环; MVP 是学习工具; pivot vs persevere. agent 时代 MVP 成本接近 0, 但纪律仍核心.
### T04-S003 Lean Analytics

- **T04-S003 Lean Analytics** — 永恒 textbook / 进阶 / 永恒 (benchmarks 12-24 月衰减) / 数据驱动. OMTM 单一指标; 6 业态 + 5 阶段.
### T04-S004 Four Steps to the Epiphany

- **T04-S004 Four Steps to the Epiphany** — 永恒 textbook / 进阶 / 永恒 / B2B. Customer development 4 步 (discovery/validation/creation/company building); startups search, large companies execute. Eric Ries 师承自此.
### T04-S005 Innovator's Dilemma

- **T04-S005 Innovator's Dilemma** — 永恒 / 进阶 / 永恒 / 战略. 巨头不是因为做错而是因为做对而失败; disruptive 来自下层. 解释为什么 Salesforce/MS 在 agent 浪中被独立 vertical agent 公司打 (evidence: [T04-S005, T04-S027]).
### T04-S006 Built to Last + Good to Great

- **T04-S006 Built to Last + Good to Great** — 永恒 monograph / 进阶 / 永恒 / 大公司. 单人 indie 边际效用低, 但 10M+ ARR + 团队 scale 阶段适用. Indie 派 (Lavingia/Levels) 明确反对 — 流派分歧.
### T04-S007 Hard Thing About Hard Things

- **T04-S007 Hard Thing About Hard Things** — 永恒 essays / 进阶 / 永恒 / B2B. Wartime CEO; 没有完美决策. Agent 公司 ARR ramp 极快 (Harvey 3 年 200M), team scale 阶段适用.
### T04-S008 Blitzscaling

- **T04-S008 Blitzscaling** — 永恒 framework / 进阶 / 永恒 / VC. 速度优于效率; 5 阶段; 与 indie 派直接冲突 — 流派分歧关键.
### T04-S009 Zero to One

- **T04-S009 Zero to One** — 永恒 lectures / 入门-进阶 / 永恒 / VC. 垄断=价值; 0-1 vs 1-N; secret 假设. a16z enterprise vertical agent 论 (Harvey/Sierra) 是 Thiel 垄断论现代演绎.
### T04-S010 Your Next Five Moves

- **T04-S010 Your Next Five Moves** — framework / 入门 / 永恒 / B2C 实业派. 5 步思维 (clarity/strategy/growth/team/power); 在 sales-driven / agency / SMB 圈是核心读物, indie 圈影响有限.
### T04-S011 Why Software Is Eating the World (2011, WSJ)

- **T04-S011 Why Software Is Eating the World (2011, WSJ)** — 永恒 essay / 入门 / 永恒 / VC观察. SaaS 时代奠基 thesis; 现 agent 时代等价 = a16z "AI agents 替代 SaaS".
### T04-S012 Paul Graham YC essays

- **T04-S012 Paul Graham YC essays** — 永恒 essay 集 / 入门-进阶 / 永恒 / YC. 关键篇: Hackers and Painters / Do Things That Don't Scale / Schlep Blindness / Tarpit Ideas / How to Get Startup Ideas. agent 时代 tarpit = "通用 personal assistant 不绑定场景" (evidence: [T04-S012, T04-S036]).
### T04-S013 forEntrepreneurs SaaS Metrics 2.0

- **T04-S013 forEntrepreneurs SaaS Metrics 2.0** — 永恒 working blog / 进阶 / 低 / B2B. MRR/CAC/LTV/churn/payback 工程化 baseline; 几乎每篇 VC pitch 引用.

## 2. Indie Hacker Canon (学派: Indie / Solopreneur)
### T04-S014 MAKE: Bootstrapper's Handbook


- **T04-S014 MAKE: Bootstrapper's Handbook** — handbook / 入门-进阶 / medium / Indie 极致. Ship 第一; SEO + Twitter audience-first; 单人多产品 portfolio. PH Founder Book 2019.
### T04-S015 The Minimalist Entrepreneur

- **T04-S015 The Minimalist Entrepreneur** — monograph / 入门 / 永恒 / Community-led. Community first → product; charge before build; sustainable > unicorn.
### T04-S016 Small Bets (course + community)

- **T04-S016 Small Bets (course + community)** — course / 入门 / 永恒 (idea) / Portfolio. 不押 single bet, 多下注. 2025 Gumroad $3.6M 收购验证.
### T04-S017 4-Hour Workweek

- **T04-S017 4-Hour Workweek** — 永恒 / 入门 / 概念永恒 (战术中等) / Indie 鼻祖. Lifestyle design / muse business / geo arbitrage. agent 时代等价物 = "用 agent 做 lifestyle business".
### T04-S018 Saturday Solopreneur

- **T04-S018 Saturday Solopreneur** — newsletter / 入门 / medium / Indie+LinkedIn. 一人公司 portfolio 到 $5M; 175k 订户.
### T04-S023 A Smart Bear

- **T04-S023 A Smart Bear** — 永恒 essay 集 / 进阶 / 永恒 / Bootstrap+venture hybrid. 唯一 2 unicorn (SmartBear/WP Engine) 创始人 + 16 年长期写作. 关键篇: "My Top 10 Mistakes Getting to $100m ARR".

## 3. Agent-时代-Specific Canon (2023-2026, 12-24 月衰减)
### T04-S024 Top 100 Gen AI Consumer Apps (rolling, Olivia Moore)


- **T04-S024 Top 100 Gen AI Consumer Apps (rolling, Olivia Moore)** — 6 月更新, B2C agent 应用最权威 ranking, 每代 30-40% 公司是新的 — 6 月 1 次行业体检.
### T04-S025 a16z AI Voice Agents thesis

- **T04-S025 a16z AI Voice Agents thesis** — voice = 当前 agent 最薄 wedge; 替代 SDR/customer service.
### T04-S026 a16z 100 CIOs Building/Buying Gen AI 2025

- **T04-S026 a16z 100 CIOs Building/Buying Gen AI 2025** — 企业 agent 采购真实预算 / pilot→prod 比例; buyer side 真实声音.
### T04-S027 a16z Where Enterprises Are Actually Adopting AI

- **T04-S027 a16z Where Enterprises Are Actually Adopting AI** — text-heavy + repetitive + verifiable + low-reg 行业先采纳; Harvey 3 年 200M ARR; AI 公司 ARR 5-10x 老 SaaS. evidence 几乎所有 agent pitch 引用源.
### T04-S028 Sequoia AI's Trillion-Dollar Opportunity (Buhler)

- **T04-S028 Sequoia AI's Trillion-Dollar Opportunity (Buhler)** — agent economy 三阶段 (assistants→swarms→economy); persistent identity / agent comm protocol / security 三技术挑战.
### T04-S029 Generative AI's Act Two (Sonya Huang + Pat Grady, 2023)

- **T04-S029 Generative AI's Act Two (Sonya Huang + Pat Grady, 2023)** — act 1 model → act 2 customer-first end-to-end 应用层; 后续 a16z/Sequoia/Lightspeed 默认语境.
### T04-S030 Bessemer State of the Cloud 2024

- **T04-S030 Bessemer State of the Cloud 2024** — Cloud AI Era; AI Native 比 legacy SaaS 快 50% 到 1B; vertical AI 高 ACV.
### T04-S031 Rise of the AI Engineer (swyx)

- **T04-S031 Rise of the AI Engineer (swyx)** — 类别奠基; 5000 ML researcher vs 5000 万 SWE 演化出 AI engineer 中间层. monetize agents 的目标客户/招聘对象大部分是 AI engineer.
### T04-S032 Your AI Product Needs Evals (Hamel)

- **T04-S032 Your AI Product Needs Evals (Hamel)** — agent 产品失败几乎都源于"没有 eval"; 也是 Hamel consulting (30+ 公司) 的商业 substrate.
### T04-S033 Patterns for Building LLM Systems (Eugene Yan)

- **T04-S033 Patterns for Building LLM Systems (Eugene Yan)** — 7 patterns: Evals/RAG/Fine-tuning/Caching/Guardrails/Defensive UX/Feedback flywheel. Hamel + Eugene = consulting 派双子星.
### T04-S034 Lenny AI agent 产品 deep dive

- **T04-S034 Lenny AI agent 产品 deep dive** — 6 个 agent 行为特征; 5 问 safety 检查; 8 平台 review (Zapier/Gumloop/Cassidy/Manus/Lindy/Relay).
### T04-S035 Lightspeed Stories

- **T04-S035 Lightspeed Stories** — 165 AI-native 公司投资组合 (Anthropic/xAI/Mistral/Glean/Abridge); 当前 thesis: AI agent + security.

## 4. Pricing / GTM Canon
### T04-S019 Product-Led Growth (Wes Bush, 2019)


- **T04-S019 Product-Led Growth (Wes Bush, 2019)** — framework / 入门 / 概念永恒 (实操 medium) / PLG. Free→paid 自助; product as primary growth engine.
### T04-S020 Growth Unhinged (Kyle Poyar)

- **T04-S020 Growth Unhinged (Kyle Poyar)** — newsletter / 6-12 月衰减 / PLG. 84k 订户; 2025 B2B 货币化基准 (240 公司).
### T04-S021 ProfitWell (Patrick Campbell)

- **T04-S021 ProfitWell (Patrick Campbell)** — research rolling / 6-12 月 / 定价. Pricing 是最高 ROI lever; freemium 适用条件; willingness-to-pay 量化.

## 5. Indie Hacker Case Study Canon
### T04-S022 Indie Hackers Podcast


- **T04-S022 Indie Hackers Podcast** — rolling case study / Indie. 700+ 真实创业访谈, 透明 MRR / 流量 / pivot 史; 这一行最好的"反面教材库". 创始人 Courtland Allen 长访 #185.

## 6. 国内补充 (~10%, 学派: 国内 VC + 大厂平台)
### T04-S036 朱啸虎 (金沙江)


- **T04-S036 朱啸虎 (金沙江)** — 应用层创业系列访谈. 通用大模型先行者劣势; agent + 专有硬件 / 复杂编辑能力 / 出海三方向; "护城河在 AI 之外".
### T04-S037 月之暗面 杨植麟

- **T04-S037 月之暗面 杨植麟** — 创业复盘长文 (华尔街见闻 2024). Kimi 长文本路线 + AGI/Super App + "雪山未知" 心态. 注: 2026 部分技术路线已被 supersede, 创业方法论稳定.
### T04-S038 字节扣子 (极客公园 2024)

- **T04-S038 字节扣子 (极客公园 2024)** — 三段式商业化 (Community/Enterprise/火山方舟); 开源 (Apache 2.0); 国内 agent 创业最大 ecosystem 平台一手观察.

> 国内补充 ~10% (低于 25-30% 目标). agent monetize 行业全球化属性强, 国内 agent ARR 数据相对薄. Phase 2 可补 红杉中国 / 蓝湖资本 / 高榕 公开演讲 2-3 篇.

## 学习路径

**新手 6 月 (不开公司也读)**: T04-S002 Lean Startup → T04-S003 OMTM → T04-S012 PG 5 篇 essay → T04-S014 MAKE 全本 → T04-S015 Minimalist Entrepreneur → T04-S031 swyx + T04-S032 Hamel evals → T04-S022 Indie Hackers 听 10 集.

**进阶 1-2 年 (开始 build)**: T04-S001 Crossing the Chasm → T04-S013 Skok metrics + T04-S019 PLG → T04-S033 Eugene Yan 7 patterns → T04-S024 a16z Top 100 (6 月一次体检) → T04-S028 Sequoia keynote → T04-S036-038 国内 1-2 篇.

**高阶 3-5 年 (scale + 投资视角)**: T04-S005 Innovator's Dilemma → T04-S007 Hard Thing → T04-S008 Blitzscaling → T04-S009 Zero to One → T04-S023 Jason Cohen 系统读 → T04-S030 Bessemer 历年.

## 学派分歧 (Phase 2 提炼参考)

**分歧 1: PLG vs Sales-Led (高 ACV)** — agent 时代核心议题.
- PLG 派 (T04-S019 Bush / T04-S020 Poyar / T04-S014 Levels): 自助 freemium bottom-up; 适用 consumer + horizontal infra.
- Sales-led 派 (T04-S030 Bessemer / T04-S027 a16z vertical / T04-S007 Horowitz): vertical agent ($100k-$10M ACV) 必须 enterprise sales; Harvey/Sierra/Eve 验证.
- **Consensus**: 双轨并存 — consumer/horizontal 走 PLG, vertical enterprise (法律/医疗/金融) 走 sales-led. 创业者先定 ICP.

**分歧 2: Indie / Small Bets vs Blitzscaling**.
- Indie 派 (T04-S014 / T04-S015 / T04-S016): 一人公司, portfolio of small bets, sustainable > unicorn.
- Blitzscaling 派 (T04-S008 / T04-S007): 速度 > 效率; winner-take-most.
- Sub-question: agent 是否本质 winner-take-most? Buhler T04-S028 暗示 yes (协议 + 数据飞轮); Levels/Vassallo 反对 (vertical niche 仍可独占).

**分歧 3: 通用 agent 平台 vs vertical 应用**.
- 平台派 (T04-S038 扣子 / Manus / GPTs / Zapier): 基础设施 + ecosystem.
- Vertical 派 (T04-S027 a16z 数据 / T04-S036 朱啸虎): vertical ARR ramp 快, 平台先行者劣势.
- 当前 (2026-05) 偏 vertical 派 (evidence: [T04-S027, T04-S036, T04-S028]); 平台派资本支持充足.

**分歧 4: AI = software 续集 vs AI = 全新范式**.
- 续集派 (T04-S011 Andreessen + T04-S030 Bessemer "Cloud AI Era"): SaaS 教科书 + AI = AI SaaS, 同样 metrics.
- 范式派 (T04-S029 Sequoia Act 2 + T04-S028 Buhler): agent economy 新范式, SaaS metrics 不够 (token-based / outcome-based pricing 改写 ARR).

## Phase 2 提炼提示

**反复出现 ≥ 3 个 canon 的核心 idea** (候选心智模型):
- "Build eval/measurement before scale" (T04-S002 + T04-S003 + T04-S013 + T04-S032) → 「OMTM/eval 之前不要 scale」
- "Vertical wedge > horizontal platform" (T04-S001 + T04-S009 + T04-S027 + T04-S036) → 「先 dominate 一个 niche 再扩」
- "Ship before perfect" (T04-S002 + T04-S012 DTNS + T04-S014 + T04-S015) → 「agent 时代 MVP 成本 0, ship 速度 = 学习速度」
- "Pricing is highest-leverage" (T04-S013 + T04-S020 + T04-S021) → 「年度 pricing 实验比新功能优先」

**智识谱系种子**:
- 流派 A "B2B SaaS 经典派": T04-S004 Blank → T04-S001 Moore → T04-S013 Skok → 当代 T04-S030 Bessemer / T04-S027 a16z
- 流派 B "Indie / Solo 派": T04-S017 Ferriss → T04-S014 Levels → T04-S015 Lavingia → 当代 T04-S016 Vassallo / T04-S018 Welsh
- 流派 C "Consulting / Engineering 派" (agent 时代独有): T04-S031 swyx → T04-S032 Husain / T04-S033 Yan → 当代 T04-S034 Lenny
- 流派 D "VC 观察派": T04-S011 Andreessen → T04-S029 Sequoia → 当代 T04-S028 Buhler / T04-S035 Lightspeed
- 流派 E (国内): 朱啸虎 T04-S036 (应用层 + 出海) vs 杨植麟 T04-S037 (大模型 + 长文本) 两极

**冷僻信号**: 38 entries 远超 22 阈值; 一手率 100% verified_primary; 学派分歧 4 条保留; 国内补充 8% (低于目标, Phase 2 可追加红杉中国/高榕一手访谈).

**与其他 Track 的 handshake**:
- T04 → T01 figures: Moore / Ries / Levels / Lavingia / swyx / Hamel / Eugene / Olivia Moore / Buhler / 朱啸虎 / 杨植麟 全部进 figures 候选
- T04 → T02 tools: Stripe / Gumroad / ConvertKit / Cursor + agent platforms (Lindy / Manus / Zapier Agents / 扣子)
- T04 → T03 workflows: Customer development 4 步 / build-measure-learn / OMTM / portfolio of small bets / blitzscaling 5 阶段
