# Mental Models & Heuristics

*Six models and ten decision heuristics distilled from Nicolas Cole, Dickie
Bush, Sahil Bloom, Justin Welsh, Dan Koe, and Alex Hormozi — plus X's leaked
algorithm data.*

Read when the user asks "why does this work" or you need to explain a
first-principles reason behind a tactic. These are craft-level, not strategy.

---

## The 6 Core Models

### 1. Lean Validation Flywheel

**One line:** Test the smallest unit of content first. If it lands, expand.
If it expands well, reinvest into more content.

```
Tweet (validate the idea)
  ↓ data good?
Thread (expand with depth)
  ↓ data good?
Newsletter / blog (long-form asset)
  ↓ data good?
Video / course / product (monetize)
  ↑ new ideas feed back ←──────┘
```

**Sources:** Cole/Bush's Lean Writing, Sahil Bloom's 225+ threads (all
validated as tweets first), Hormozi's tweet→video pipeline, Welsh's Content OS.
Four independent creators, one pattern.

**Application:** Before writing anything long, ask "has this idea been
validated as a tweet?" If no, write the tweet first.

**Limit:** High-authority, low-frequency creators (e.g., Karpathy) don't need
the flywheel — they have authority and scarcity. The flywheel is for the
audience-building phase.

---

### 2. Attention Engineering

**One line:** The first 2 lines decide life or death. Hooks can be engineered.

**Formula:**
```
Hook quality = Curiosity gap × Credibility × Specificity
```

- **Curiosity gap** (Cole): Reveal the start and the end. Hide the middle.
- **Credibility:** Numbers, names, time anchors.
- **Specificity:** Add qualifiers until you're "uncomfortably specific."

**Hormozi's Value Equation, applied to hooks:**
```
Hook value = (Desired outcome × Credibility) / (Time cost × Effort)
```
Maximize numerator, minimize denominator.

**Algorithmic backing:** X's Engagement Velocity — the first 15–30 minutes of
engagement decides whether a tweet enters a larger distribution pool. The hook
is what wins that window.

**Rules:**
- Spend 50% of writing time on the hook.
- Write 10–15 versions. Pick one.
- Answer three questions: who is this for, what is it about, why should they
  read it.

**Limit:** Over-optimized hooks become clickbait. Content must deliver on the
promise or you burn long-term trust.

---

### 3. Category Creation

**One line:** Don't squeeze into an existing lane. Create a lane only you
occupy.

**Three levels:**

| Level | Strategy | Example |
|-------|----------|---------|
| Entry | Niche down | "AI tool reviews" |
| Mid | Interest Stack | "AI + indie dev + product thinking" |
| Elite | Category creation | Coin a new term, redefine the category |

**Cole's Snow Leopard theory:** Don't be a lion (competing for dominance in a
crowded category). Be a snow leopard (the only one in a rare habitat).

**Koe's Niche of One:** Don't find a niche. Create one.
- Formula: broad brand (share diverse interests) + narrow product (solve one
  specific problem).
- Interest Stack: combine unlikely interests for a unique lens (e.g., fitness
  + philosophy + business + lifestyle).

**Languaging:** Give your unique method its own name. Two words can reframe a
category (car → electric car). "Ship 30 for 30" is itself an example of
languaging.

**The Tequila Test:**
1. List every conventional piece of advice in your topic.
2. Cross all of it out.
3. Write what's left. If nothing is left, you haven't found your differentiated
   angle yet.

**Application:** Use when positioning feels fuzzy or when you're
indistinguishable from others in your space.

**Limit:** Category creation takes time and depth. Cold-start accounts often
need to build an audience inside an existing category first.

---

### 4. Value Forward

**One line:** Give away the secrets. Sell the execution. Every piece of
content is a delivery of value.

**Hormozi's core insight:** Only 1% of people will act on free information.
The other 99% are happy to pay for someone to do it for them. Giving away
high-value content proves you have solutions, builds trust and reciprocity,
and converts naturally.

**Three-part structure (Hook–Retain–Reward):**
1. **Hook:** Arrest attention (shock, question, bold promise).
2. **Retain:** Deliver value continuously (story + open loops + zero filler).
3. **Reward:** Over-deliver at the end (actionable step, more than promised).

**Welsh's "education first":** Build authority with teaching content first,
then monetize. His 18-week 0→44K growth ran on daily educational tips.

**Sahil's Feynman test:** If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand
it. Writing publicly is practicing the Feynman technique in front of an
audience.

**Application:** Before publishing, ask: "What can the reader *do* after
reading this?" If the answer is "nothing," rewrite.

**Limit:** Pure value delivery builds no personal connection. Mix in stories,
opinions, and failures. See Bush's 75/25 rule — 75% broad value, 25% personal
for recognition.

---

### 5. Build in Public

**One line:** Turn the process into the content. Make the audience feel like
stakeholders.

**Two variants:**

**Build in Public (Pieter Levels / @levelsio):**
- Share revenue (MRR screenshots), process (feature iterations), failure (97%
  of projects die).
- Mechanism: watching you go from 0 to $100K MRR creates "investor mindset" in
  the audience — they want you to win and will promote you.
- Share: milestones, launches, failure post-mortems, tech decisions, user
  feedback.
- Don't share: exact CAC numbers, customer PII, core implementation details
  that can be cloned.

**Learn in Public (Shawn Wang / @swyx):**
- Share the learning process: blog posts, tutorials, questions answered in
  public — create "learning exhaust."
- **Pick Up What They Put Down:** when a big creator ships something, write a
  review / explainer / tutorial and tag them. They'll share it — "people
  praising my work is something I'll retweet all day."
- You don't need to invent something new. You need to explain what others
  invented, clearly.

**Application:** The default differentiation strategy for anyone building
something (indie devs, makers, learners). If you're shipping code, products,
or skills, build in public.

**Limit:** Requires that you actually be doing *something*. Pure commentary
creators can't build in public. Also requires psychological durability —
public building means public failure.

---

### 6. Systematized Compounding

**One line:** Replace inspiration with templates. Make content production a
predictable machine.

**Welsh's Content OS:**
1. **Curate** — collect inspiration and high-performing content.
2. **Templatize** — abstract the structure of what worked.
3. **Rapid create** — plug inputs into templates. 10–20 pieces per hour.
4. **Distribute** — cross-platform + automation tools.

**Koe's 2-Hour Writer:**
- 1 hour walking (ideation) + 1 hour writing/editing.
- **Idea Museum:** an organized inventory of raw material.
- Writing frameworks: Listicle / short post (personal redefinition /
  uncomfortable truth) / PSB (Problem–Solution–Benefit) story arc.

**Content repurposing flywheel:**
```
Newsletter (1–2 long pieces/week)
  ├── Extract 5–7 short posts → X
  ├── Screenshot X posts → Instagram/LinkedIn
  ├── Record newsletter as audio → YouTube
  └── High-engagement tweets → expand into next newsletter
```

**Sahil's Notion board:** Raw idea → Queued → In progress → Drafted → Published.
Five columns. Never out of ideas.

**Application:** Use when inspiration runs dry, output becomes inconsistent,
or quality swings day to day.

**Limit:** Over-systematization makes content mechanical. Leave 20–30% space
for improvisation, live reactions to news (especially in AI/tech), and raw
personal writing.

---

## The 10 Decision Heuristics

### 1. Validate short before writing long

Want to write a thread, newsletter, or video? Test the core idea as a tweet
first. "Twitter is an idea refinery, not a broadcast channel." (Bush)

- **Triggered when:** you're about to start any long-form piece.
- **Do:** publish the core claim as a single tweet. If it lands, expand.

---

### 2. Hook = 50% of writing time

Write 10–15 hook versions. Pick one. Answer the three questions: who, what,
why.

- **Triggered when:** starting any piece.

---

### 3. Conversation dominates

Algorithm weights (from X's leaked internal data):
- Conversation reply (author replies back): ~150×
- Reply: 27×
- Bookmark: 20×
- Retweet: 2×
- Like: 1×

One conversation that pulls the author back in beats 150 likes.

- **Triggered when:** planning engagement strategy.
- **Do:** write content that invites replies. Reply to every comment in the
  first hour.

---

### 4. 1/3/1 rhythm

One hook line + three expanding lines + one closing line. Single lines act as
"checkpoints" that give the reader small dopamine hits and keep them scrolling.

- **Triggered when:** writing anything longer than 3 sentences.
- **Variants:** 1/4/1, 1/5/1, 1/2/5/2/1.

---

### 5. Super Bowl response (AI/tech niche)

A major model release is the Super Bowl of the AI niche. Response timeline:

- 0–1h: Quick take
- 1–6h: Demo
- 6–24h: Deep thread
- 1–7 days: Full review

- **Triggered when:** GPT / Claude / Gemini / major open-source model release.
- **Key:** Speed > perfection. First with insight beats hundredth with polish.

---

### 6. Own your audience

Algorithms change. Email lists don't. Every tweet's ultimate goal is to feed
the newsletter.

- Twitter = discovery engine (top of funnel).
- Newsletter = owned relationship.
- Sahil's newsletter ads earn $70K+/month, all reinvested.

- **Triggered when:** planning content strategy.

---

### 7. The 4A topic matrix

One topic × four angles = infinite pieces.

- **Actionable:** teach how (tips, guides, how-to)
- **Analytical:** use data (stats, trends, frameworks)
- **Aspirational:** inspire possibility (lessons, mistakes, habits)
- **Anthropological:** touch humanity (fears, failures, uncomfortable truths)

- **Triggered when:** you feel like "there's nothing to write about."

---

### 8. Give secrets, sell execution

Hesitating to share a method/tool/flow for free? Give it. 99% won't execute
on it. Those who do become fans. Those who don't will pay you later.

- **Triggered when:** debating whether to share a method freely.
- **Source:** Hormozi, who grew to 1M followers in 6 months with zero ad spend.

---

### 9. Templates > inspiration

Find a high-performing piece? Extract its structure immediately. Cole wrote
200+ threads using only 7 templates. Welsh produces 10–20 pieces/hour with
Content OS.

- **Triggered when:** a piece of yours outperforms. Capture the template
  before you forget.
- **Cole's 7 templates:** Framework / Story / Actionable / Curation / Lessons /
  Mistakes / Contrarian.

---

### 10. The comment section is gold

For cold-start accounts (<10K followers), high-quality replies in big-account
comment sections are how you borrow reach. Welsh once got 6,700 impressions
from a single reply. Sahil seeded his account by leaving 200–400-word
"mini-newsletter replies" under 50 large accounts — one Chamath retweet
triggered his takeoff.

- **Triggered when:** in cold-start phase.
- **Rule:** Don't write "great post." Write a 200–400-word mini-newsletter
  reply that earns attention.
