# Proof Narrative: The failure rate for venture-backed startups is 70% within 10 years, lower than the commonly cited 90% for all startups.

## Verdict

**Verdict: PARTIALLY VERIFIED**

The claim gets one thing right — the 90% figure is commonly cited — but misattributes the 70% failure rate to the wrong population, and the most credible VC-specific research finds a higher rate, not lower.

## What Was Claimed?

The claim asserts that venture-backed startups fail at a rate of 70% within 10 years, and that this is lower than the "commonly cited" 90% failure rate for startups in general. This is a comparative claim with two moving parts: a specific number for VC-backed companies (70%), and a baseline figure for all startups (90%).

## What Did We Find?

The strongest challenge to the claim is a population mismatch in the key statistic. The 70% figure traces to BLS Business Employment Dynamics data — which covers all small businesses, not specifically venture-backed startups. When researchers at Harvard Business School studied more than 2,000 VC-backed companies specifically, they found that 75% never returned capital to their investors. That figure is higher than the claimed 70%, not lower.

The 90% baseline has its own problems. It is, as the claim says, "commonly cited" — but multiple fact-checkers have found it difficult to trace to any authoritative source. BLS data suggests the actual all-business failure rate at 10 years is closer to 65% (roughly 50% of businesses survive 5 years, and about 35% survive 10 years). If the 90% figure is simply wrong, then "lower than 90%" is a comparison against a false baseline.

The definition of "failure" is also inconsistent across sources — BLS counts closure of the legal entity, while Ghosh/Harvard counts failure to return capital. These can produce different results for the same company in the same situation.

## What Should You Keep In Mind?

The 70% figure is the BLS all-business failure rate — not a VC-specific number. The best available VC-specific research (Harvard Business School, 2,000+ companies) puts the figure at 75% under the "never return capital" definition, which is higher than the claimed 70%. The verdict is PARTIALLY VERIFIED only because the 90% figure is genuinely widely cited; the central comparative claim does not hold.

## How Was This Verified?

This claim was analyzed using the Proof Engine's compound claim methodology: each sub-claim was evaluated against cited sources, adversarial checks searched for counter-evidence, and the verdict reflects only what could be confirmed. See [the structured proof report](proof.md), [the full verification audit](proof_audit.md), and [re-run the proof yourself](proof.py).
