# Audit: Renewable energy (solar + wind) can replace fossil fuels without major grid upgrades or backups

- **Generated:** 2026-03-29
- **Reader summary:** [proof.md](proof.md)
- **Proof script:** [proof.py](proof.py)

## Claim Specification

| Field | Value |
|-------|-------|
| Subject | Solar and wind energy as fossil-fuel replacements |
| Sub-claims | SC1: Grid upgrades are NOT required; SC2: Backup/storage systems are NOT required |
| Compound operator | AND |
| Proof direction | disprove |
| SC1 operator | >= 3 sources rejecting the sub-claim |
| SC2 operator | >= 3 sources rejecting the sub-claim |
| Operator note | The original claim asserts renewables can replace fossil fuels WITHOUT grid upgrades AND WITHOUT backups. proof_direction='disprove' means empirical_facts contain sources that REJECT the claim. |

*Source: proof.py JSON summary*

## Fact Registry

| ID | Key | Label |
|----|-----|-------|
| B1 | sc1_iea_grids | SC1: IEA — grid investment must nearly double |
| B2 | sc1_irena_grids | SC1: IRENA — grid expansion and modernisation required |
| B3 | sc1_iea_renewables | SC1: IEA Renewables 2025 — curtailment from grid limits |
| B4 | sc2_iea_grids_storage | SC2: IEA — energy storage needed for flexibility |
| B5 | sc2_irena_storage | SC2: IRENA — storage key to renewable supply-demand gaps |
| B6 | sc2_eia_battery | SC2: EIA — 24 GW battery storage planned for 2026 |
| A1 | — | SC1 verified source count |
| A2 | — | SC2 verified source count |

*Source: proof.py JSON summary*

## Full Evidence Table

### Type A (Computed) Facts

| ID | Fact | Method | Result |
|----|------|--------|--------|
| A1 | SC1 verified source count | count(verified sc1 citations) = 3 | 3 |
| A2 | SC2 verified source count | count(verified sc2 citations) = 3 | 3 |

*Source: proof.py JSON summary*

### Type B (Empirical) Facts

| ID | Fact | Source | URL | Quote (truncated) | Status | Method | Credibility |
|----|------|--------|-----|-------------------|--------|--------|-------------|
| B1 | SC1: Grid investment must double | IEA — Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions | [link](https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-grids-and-secure-energy-transitions/executive-summary) | "To meet national climate targets, grid investment needs to nearly double by 2030..." | verified | full_quote | Tier 2 (unknown) |
| B2 | SC1: Grid expansion required | IRENA via PV Tech | [link](https://www.pv-tech.org/irena-grid-infrastructure-and-energy-storage-key-to-energy-transition/) | "The path to triple renewable power capacity by 2030 and beyond requires the expansion..." | verified | full_quote | Tier 2 (unknown) |
| B3 | SC1: Curtailment from grid limits | IEA — Renewables 2025 | [link](https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2025/renewable-electricity) | "Curtailment occurs when the power system cannot absorb all generated power..." | verified | full_quote | Tier 2 (unknown) |
| B4 | SC2: Flexibility needed for VRE | IEA — Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions | [link](https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-grids-and-secure-energy-transitions/executive-summary) | "As the shares of variable renewables such as solar PV and wind increase, power systems need..." | verified | full_quote | Tier 2 (unknown) |
| B5 | SC2: Storage key to transition | IRENA via PV Tech | [link](https://www.pv-tech.org/irena-grid-infrastructure-and-energy-storage-key-to-energy-transition/) | "The deployment of grid infrastructure and energy storage is a key element..." | verified | full_quote | Tier 2 (unknown) |
| B6 | SC2: 24 GW battery storage in 2026 | U.S. EIA | [link](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67205) | "Developers plan to add 24 GW of utility-scale battery storage to the grid this year" | verified | full_quote | Tier 5 (government) |

*Source: proof.py JSON summary*

## Citation Verification Details

**B1 — IEA Grids (grid investment)**
- Status: verified
- Method: full_quote
- Fetch mode: live

**B2 — IRENA via PV Tech (grid expansion)**
- Status: verified
- Method: full_quote
- Fetch mode: live

**B3 — IEA Renewables 2025 (curtailment)**
- Status: verified
- Method: full_quote
- Fetch mode: live

**B4 — IEA Grids (flexibility/storage)**
- Status: verified
- Method: full_quote
- Fetch mode: live

**B5 — IRENA via PV Tech (storage deployment)**
- Status: verified
- Method: full_quote
- Fetch mode: live

**B6 — U.S. EIA (battery storage capacity)**
- Status: verified
- Method: full_quote
- Fetch mode: live

All 6 citations verified via full quote match on live pages. No impact analysis needed — all verified.

*Source: proof.py JSON summary*

## Computation Traces

```
SC1: grid upgrades required (sources rejecting claim): 3 >= 3 = True
SC2: storage/backups required (sources rejecting claim): 3 >= 3 = True
compound: all sub-claims disproved: 2 == 2 = True
```

*Source: proof.py inline output (execution trace)*

## Independent Source Agreement (Rule 6)

### SC1: Grid upgrades required

| Source | Institution | Status |
|--------|------------|--------|
| sc1_iea_grids | IEA (intergovernmental) | verified |
| sc1_irena_grids | IRENA (intergovernmental, via PV Tech) | verified |
| sc1_iea_renewables | IEA (separate report) | verified |

Independence note: IEA and IRENA are separate intergovernmental organizations with independent research programs. The two IEA sources are from different reports (Grids report vs. Renewables 2025) addressing different aspects (investment needs vs. curtailment data).

### SC2: Storage/backups required

| Source | Institution | Status |
|--------|------------|--------|
| sc2_iea_grids_storage | IEA (intergovernmental) | verified |
| sc2_irena_storage | IRENA (intergovernmental, via PV Tech) | verified |
| sc2_eia_battery | U.S. EIA (government) | verified |

Independence note: IEA, IRENA, and U.S. EIA are three separate institutions with independent research and data collection programs.

*Source: proof.py JSON summary*

## Adversarial Checks (Rule 5)

**Check 1: Credible studies supporting 100% solar+wind without storage or grid upgrades?**
- Verification performed: Searched for 'solar wind 100% without storage grid reliability' and 'renewable energy no grid upgrades needed'. All results from credible sources (IEA, IRENA, NREL, academic journals) consistently state that storage and grid upgrades are essential.
- Finding: No credible source supports the claim. Even the most optimistic scenarios (IRENA 1.5C, IEA NZE) require massive grid expansion and storage.
- Breaks proof: No

**Check 2: Could emerging technology eliminate the need?**
- Verification performed: Searched for 'solar wind overcapacity eliminate storage need 2025 2026'. Some researchers propose overcapacity could reduce (not eliminate) storage needs, but this itself requires grid upgrades.
- Finding: Overcapacity strategies reduce but do not eliminate storage needs, and themselves require grid upgrades.
- Breaks proof: No

**Check 3: Does any country run on 100% solar+wind without storage/grid mods?**
- Verification performed: Searched for 'country 100% solar wind no battery storage'. Countries with high renewable shares rely on grid interconnections and/or hydro backup.
- Finding: No country achieves this. High-renewable countries depend on grid interconnections and/or hydro/storage.
- Breaks proof: No

*Source: proof.py JSON summary*

## Source Credibility Assessment

| Fact ID | Domain | Type | Tier | Note |
|---------|--------|------|------|------|
| B1 | iea.org | unknown | 2 | Unclassified by automated tool. IEA is an intergovernmental organization — actual authority is very high. |
| B2 | pv-tech.org | unknown | 2 | Unclassified by automated tool. PV Tech is a leading solar industry publication reporting IRENA statements. |
| B3 | iea.org | unknown | 2 | Same as B1. |
| B4 | iea.org | unknown | 2 | Same as B1. |
| B5 | pv-tech.org | unknown | 2 | Same as B2. |
| B6 | eia.gov | government | 5 | Government domain — U.S. Energy Information Administration. |

Note: The automated credibility classifier does not recognize iea.org or pv-tech.org, assigning them tier 2 (unknown). In reality, the IEA (International Energy Agency) is a Paris-based intergovernmental organization with 31 member countries, and IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency) is a UN-affiliated intergovernmental organization. These are among the most authoritative energy analysis institutions in the world. The disproof does not depend on low-credibility sources.

*Source: proof.py JSON summary; credibility notes are author analysis*

## Extraction Records

For this qualitative/consensus proof, extractions record citation verification status rather than numeric values:

| Fact ID | Value | Countable | Quote Snippet |
|---------|-------|-----------|---------------|
| B1 | verified | Yes | To meet national climate targets, grid investment needs to nearly double by 2030 |
| B2 | verified | Yes | The path to triple renewable power capacity by 2030 and beyond requires the expa |
| B3 | verified | Yes | Curtailment occurs when the power system cannot absorb all generated power becau |
| B4 | verified | Yes | As the shares of variable renewables such as solar PV and wind increase, power s |
| B5 | verified | Yes | The deployment of grid infrastructure and energy storage is a key element to avo |
| B6 | verified | Yes | Developers plan to add 24 GW of utility-scale battery storage to the grid this y |

*Source: proof.py JSON summary*

## Hardening Checklist

| Rule | Status | Detail |
|------|--------|--------|
| Rule 1 | N/A | Qualitative consensus proof — no numeric extraction from quotes |
| Rule 2 | Pass | All 6 citations verified via `verify_all_citations()` with live fetch |
| Rule 3 | Pass | `date.today()` used in generator block |
| Rule 4 | Pass | CLAIM_FORMAL with compound sub_claims and operator_note |
| Rule 5 | Pass | 3 adversarial checks with independent web searches |
| Rule 6 | Pass | 3 independent institutions (IEA, IRENA, EIA) across sub-claims |
| Rule 7 | N/A | No constants or formulas — qualitative proof |
| validate_proof.py | PASS with warnings | 16/17 checks passed, 0 issues, 1 warning (verdict else branch) |

*Source: author analysis*

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Generated by [proof-engine](https://github.com/yaniv-golan/proof-engine) v1.2.0 on 2026-03-29.
