# Proof: Venture capital funds vintage 2012-2016 have a median net IRR of 16.8% according to Cambridge Associates but 18.2% according to Preqin.

- Generated: 2026-04-08
- Verdict: **UNDETERMINED**
- Audit trail: [proof_audit.md](proof_audit.md) | [proof.py](proof.py)

## Key Findings

- Cambridge Associates reports median net IRR benchmarks for VC funds, but these are accessible only via paid subscription — the specific 16.8% figure for vintage 2012-2016 was not found in any public source.
- Preqin similarly requires institutional subscription access — the 18.2% figure for the same cohort was not found in any public source.
- No secondary source (academic paper, press release, or news article) reproducing both figures together was found.
- Without access to either proprietary database, neither sub-claim can be verified.

## Claim Interpretation

The claim asserts two specific empirical figures from two named benchmarking sources: (SC1) Cambridge Associates reports a median net IRR of 16.8% for VC funds with vintage years 2012–2016, and (SC2) Preqin reports 18.2% for the same cohort.

**Formal interpretation:** Both are equality claims requiring exact figures to be machine-verifiable in publicly accessible sources. "Net IRR" means after management fees and carried interest. "Vintage year" refers to the year a fund made its first investment. Both Cambridge Associates and Preqin maintain subscription-only benchmark databases; the full tables are not publicly accessible.

**Formalization scope:** The claim is a faithful restatement of two source-attributed figures. The only narrowing is the requirement for public accessibility — if a subscriber to these databases can confirm the figures, the claim may be correct; however, public verification is not possible.

## Evidence Summary

| ID | Fact | Verified |
|----|------|----------|
| SC1 | Cambridge Associates: median net IRR for VC vintage 2012-2016 = 16.8% | No (paywall — no public source found) |
| SC2 | Preqin: median net IRR for VC vintage 2012-2016 = 18.2% | No (paywall — no public source found) |

*Source: proof.py JSON summary*

## Proof Logic

SC1 requires Cambridge Associates to have published a figure of 16.8% for the median net IRR of VC funds with vintage years 2012-2016. Cambridge Associates is the most widely cited VC benchmarking service. Their public PDF reports contain only aggregate horizon returns (5/10/20-year), not per-vintage-year median net IRR tables. No public document containing this specific figure was found.

SC2 requires Preqin to have published 18.2% for the same cohort. Preqin's public materials (annual Global Alternatives Report, press releases) cite aggregate VC return quartiles but not this specific vintage-year median. No public source reproduces this figure.

Neither sub-claim can be confirmed or denied from public sources.

## Counter-Evidence Search

**Check 1 — Are Cambridge Associates benchmark figures publicly available?** Searched cambridgeassociates.com/research/ across 30+ URL attempts. The Q3 2025 public PDF contains only aggregate horizon returns. No specific 16.8% vintage 2012-2016 figure found.

**Check 2 — Are Preqin benchmark figures publicly available?** Searched preqin.com/benchmarks and Preqin annual reports. These cite aggregate quartiles, not the specific 18.2% figure. No match found.

**Check 3 — Do both figures appear in any secondary source?** Searched for "16.8% Cambridge Associates" and "18.2% Preqin" together for VC vintage 2012-2016. No secondary source reproduces both figures. The 1.4 percentage-point gap is plausible given known methodology differences (timing conventions, fund universe, valuation approaches).

## Conclusion

**UNDETERMINED.** Neither sub-claim can be verified from public sources. Cambridge Associates and Preqin are subscription-only benchmarking databases. The figures (16.8% and 18.2%) may be correct but are drawn from proprietary databases not accessible to public verification. To resolve this claim, a researcher would need a paid subscription to Cambridge Associates' US VC benchmark service and Preqin's fund performance database, then query median net IRR for vintage years 2012-2016.

> Note: All citations come from unclassified or low-credibility sources. See Source Credibility Assessment in the audit trail.

---
Generated by [proof-engine](https://github.com/yaniv-golan/proof-engine) v1.11.0 on 2026-04-08.
