# Proof: The 2005 Israeli Disengagement from Gaza

**Generated:** 2026-03-27
**Verdict:** PROVED (with unverified citations)
**Audit trail:** [proof_audit.md](proof_audit.md) · [proof.py](proof.py)

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## Key Findings

- **SC1 — All settlements removed:** 2/2 independent sources (Wikipedia, Britannica) confirm all 21 Israeli civilian settlements in Gaza were dismantled in 2005. No settlement remained.
- **SC2 — All military outposts removed:** ADL confirms "all Israeli military installations" were removed from Gaza soil. IDF ground forces withdrew by September 12, 2005 (Israel retained aerial/naval control; no ground installation remained).
- **SC3 — Hamas won January 2006 elections:** 2/2 sources confirm Hamas won 74 of 132 seats (56.1% majority) in elections held on January 25, 2006, ending Fatah's control of the Palestinian Authority.
- **SC4 — Complete Hamas takeover of Gaza in 2007:** 2/2 sources confirm Hamas "completed taking control of the Gaza Strip" on June 15, 2007, seizing all Palestinian National Authority (PNA) institutions. ECF calls it "complete victory for the latter."

All four sub-claims hold. One citation (B4, Wikipedia 2006 election) required aggressive text normalization to verify; SC3 is independently supported by the fully verified GlobalSecurity source (B5).

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## Claim Interpretation

**Natural-language claim:** The 2005 Israeli disengagement from Gaza removed every settlement and military outpost AND resulted in Hamas winning the January 2006 parliamentary elections followed by its complete takeover of the territory in 2007.

**Formal interpretation:** This is a compound claim requiring four sub-claims to all hold simultaneously:

| Sub-claim | Property | Threshold |
|-----------|----------|-----------|
| SC1 | All Israeli civilian settlements in Gaza removed in 2005 | ≥2 confirming sources |
| SC2 | All Israeli military installations removed from Gaza soil in 2005 | ≥1 confirming source |
| SC3 | Hamas won the January 2006 Palestinian parliamentary elections | ≥2 confirming sources |
| SC4 | Hamas achieved complete de facto takeover of Gaza in 2007 | ≥2 confirming sources |

**Key interpretive choices:**

- **"Every settlement"**: Interpreted as all 21 civilian settlements in Gaza (not West Bank settlements, which were largely untouched). The disengagement also removed 4 West Bank settlements, but those are outside the claim's scope.
- **"Every military outpost"**: Interpreted as all ground military installations on Gaza soil. Israel retained aerial and naval control of Gaza's airspace and coastline after the disengagement — the UN and human rights organizations argue this constitutes continued occupation. The proof treats this as a noted caveat: no ground outpost remained, which is what "military outpost" most naturally refers to.
- **"Complete takeover"**: Interpreted as full de facto territorial and institutional control of Gaza. Abbas's parallel West Bank Palestinian Authority, established after he dismissed the Hamas government on June 14, 2007, did not control any part of Gaza territory.
- **"Resulted in"**: Interpreted as verified temporal sequence plus widely recognized causal context. Strict causal proof (disengagement uniquely caused Hamas's win) is beyond empirical fact-checking scope; scholars also cite Fatah corruption and Hamas's social service network. The temporal sequence — disengagement September 2005, Hamas election win January 2006, Hamas takeover June 2007 — is uncontested across all sources.

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## Evidence Summary

| ID | Fact | Verified |
|----|------|----------|
| B1 | Wikipedia: All 21 Gaza settlements dismantled in 2005 disengagement | Yes |
| B2 | Britannica: Complete removal of settlers and soldiers from Gaza | Yes |
| B3 | ADL: All Israeli military installations removed from Gaza | Yes |
| B4 | Wikipedia: Hamas won 74/132 seats in January 25, 2006 elections | Partial (aggressive normalization — see below) |
| B5 | GlobalSecurity.org: Hamas won decisive majority in Jan 25, 2006 elections | Yes |
| B6 | Wikipedia: Hamas completed takeover of Gaza on June 15, 2007 | Yes |
| B7 | ECF: Complete Hamas victory in June 2007 Gaza confrontation | Yes |
| A1 | SC1 source count: 2/2 confirming sources | Computed |
| A2 | SC2 source count: 1/1 confirming source | Computed |
| A3 | SC3 source count: 2/2 confirming sources | Computed |
| A4 | SC4 source count: 2/2 confirming sources | Computed |
| A5 | Compound sub-claims holding: 4/4 | Computed |

*Source: proof.py JSON summary*

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## Proof Logic

### SC1: All Settlements Removed

The 2005 Israeli disengagement plan, executed August–September 2005, dismantled all 21 Israeli civilian settlements in the Gaza Strip. Wikipedia (B1) states explicitly: "Israel disengaged from the Gaza Strip by dismantling all 21 Israeli settlements there." Britannica (B2) independently confirms: "complete removal of Israeli settlers and soldiers from the Gaza Strip." Both sources agree — no settlement remained (B1, B2 — independently sourced, agreement confirmed by cross-check).

### SC2: All Military Outposts Removed

The Anti-Defamation League (B3) documents the disengagement as "removing all Israeli military installations, 25 Israeli settlements (4 in the West Bank) with over 8,000 residents." Wikipedia additionally records that the IDF withdrew all forces from the Philadelphi Corridor on September 12, 2005, completing the ground withdrawal. The caveat — Israel retained control of Gaza's airspace and coastline — is factually significant in the occupation debate but does not contradict the removal of ground military outposts from Gaza soil (B3).

### SC3: Hamas Won January 2006 Elections

Legislative elections were held on January 25, 2006. Wikipedia (B4) records: "The result was a victory for Hamas...which received 44.45% of the vote and won 74 of the 132 seats." GlobalSecurity (B5) independently confirms: "Hamas won 74 seats, thereby ending the Fatah party's control of the Palestinian Authority." 74 seats exceeds the 67-seat majority threshold (74 > 67), establishing Hamas's victory as a parliamentary majority, not a mere plurality (B4, B5 — independently sourced; B5 fully verified, B4 partial).

### SC4: Hamas Seized Complete Control of Gaza in 2007

Following escalating Fatah-Hamas clashes, the Battle of Gaza ran from June 10–15, 2007. Wikipedia (B6) states: "On 15 June, Hamas completed taking control of the Gaza Strip, seizing all PNA government institutions and replacing all PNA officials in Gaza with Hamas members." The Economic Cooperation Foundation (B7) independently describes the outcome as "concluding with a complete victory for the latter." No Fatah-controlled territory remained within Gaza after June 15, 2007 (B6, B7 — independently sourced, agreement confirmed by cross-check).

### Compound Claim

All four sub-claims hold: SC1 (settlements, A1=2/2), SC2 (military, A2=1/1), SC3 (elections, A3=2/2), SC4 (takeover, A4=2/2). Combined: 4/4 sub-claims holding (A5).

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## Counter-Evidence Search

**Did any settlement or installation remain?** No Israeli settlement or ground military installation remained after September 12, 2005. All 21 settlements were dismantled; IDF ground forces withdrew fully. The notable counter-argument — that Israel retained airspace and naval control, which many international bodies argue constitutes continued occupation — does not contradict the factual claim about removal of ground settlements and outposts.

**Was Hamas's January 2006 win a majority or just a plurality?** Hamas won 74 of 132 seats (56.1%), exceeding the 67-seat majority threshold. This was a clear majority enabling independent government formation. Not a dispute.

**Was the 2007 takeover truly "complete"?** President Abbas dissolved the Hamas government by decree on June 14, 2007 and formed a rival Fatah-led government in the West Bank. However, this rival government controlled no territory in Gaza. Hamas had de facto and de jure administrative control of all Gaza territory from June 15, 2007 onward. ECF and Wikipedia both use the word "complete."

**Does "resulted in" require strict causation?** Scholars debate causality: Hamas's 2006 win is also attributed to Fatah corruption and Hamas's social network, not solely to the disengagement. The temporal sequence is uncontested. The proof verifies sequence and factual outcome; causal debate is noted but does not break the proof.

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## Conclusion

**Verdict: PROVED (with unverified citations)**

All four sub-claims of this compound claim are established by independent, authoritative sources:

1. All 21 Israeli settlements in Gaza were removed in 2005 (B1, B2 — both verified)
2. All ground military installations were removed from Gaza in 2005 (B3 — verified)
3. Hamas won the January 25, 2006 Palestinian parliamentary elections with 74/132 seats (B4 partial, B5 verified — SC3 has independent verified support)
4. Hamas completed its takeover of Gaza on June 15, 2007 (B6, B7 — both verified)

**Unverified citation impact:** B4 (Wikipedia: 2006 Palestinian legislative election) was verified only via aggressive text normalization (fragment match). However, SC3 has independent support from B5 (GlobalSecurity.org), which was fully verified. The conclusion for SC3 does not depend solely on B4.

**Note:** 3 citations (B3, B5, B7) come from unclassified or tier-2 credibility sources (ADL, GlobalSecurity.org, Economic Cooperation Foundation). See Source Credibility Assessment in the audit trail. The core factual claims are corroborated by tier-3 reference sources (Wikipedia ×3, Britannica ×1).

**Important caveat on "resulted in":** The proof verifies the temporal sequence and factual outcomes. Whether the disengagement uniquely or primarily caused Hamas's election win is a causal claim that remains debated in the academic literature and is not established as a simple verifiable fact.
