# Proof Narrative: Current global warming is primarily driven by natural climate cycles rather than human CO2 emissions.

## Verdict

**Verdict: DISPROVED**

The scientific record is unambiguous: natural climate cycles are not the primary driver of current global warming. Independent government agencies with separate research programs both point to human greenhouse gas emissions as the dominant cause.

## What was claimed?

The claim asserts that forces like solar variation, volcanic activity, or ocean circulation patterns — not human-produced carbon dioxide — are mainly responsible for the warming Earth has experienced over the past century and a half. This idea circulates widely in public debate and is often framed as a reason to question climate policy. If true, it would mean that reducing CO2 emissions would do little to slow warming.

## What did we find?

NOAA, the U.S. agency that tracks oceans and atmosphere, states plainly that "virtually all climate scientists agree that this increase in heat-trapping gases is the main reason for the 1.8°F (1.0°C) rise in global average temperature since the late nineteenth century." That is not a hedged position — it identifies greenhouse gases as the main reason, full stop.

NOAA goes further in a second assessment, ruling out the alternatives directly: "no other known climate influences have changed enough to account for the observed warming trend." This is a process-of-elimination finding. It is not just that human emissions correlate with warming; it is that nothing else on the natural side can account for what we observe.

NASA approached the same question from the solar angle — the most commonly cited natural candidate. Using satellite measurements dating back to 1978, NASA found that solar energy reaching Earth follows the Sun's 11-year cycle with no net increase since the 1950s, even as temperatures have climbed steadily. Their conclusion: "It is therefore extremely unlikely that the Sun has caused the observed global temperature warming trend over the past half-century."

These three findings come from two independent agencies with separate satellites, research budgets, and scientific staff. Their agreement is not coordination — it is convergence from different directions to the same conclusion.

Searches for credible dissent came up empty. The most cited skeptical paper (Connolly et al., 2023) argues that solar forcing may be somewhat larger than standard estimates — but still treats it as a secondary factor, not a primary one. No national academy of sciences, no major meteorological organization, and no peer-reviewed mainstream research body supports the claim that natural cycles are the dominant driver.

## What should you keep in mind?

The scientific debate about climate change is real — but it concerns details, not direction. Researchers actively debate the exact sensitivity of the climate to CO2, the cooling effect of aerosol pollution, the magnitude of cloud feedbacks, and how much solar variation contributes at the margins. None of that debate touches the fundamental attribution: human emissions are the primary driver.

Natural cycles do matter. El Niño years are hotter; La Niña years cooler. Volcanic eruptions can depress temperatures for a year or two. These fluctuations are real and measurable. What they cannot do is produce a sustained, one-directional warming trend over 150 years — they oscillate, they don't accumulate. The IPCC estimates natural factors (solar plus volcanic combined) account for between −0.1°C and +0.1°C of the observed change, against 0.8°C–1.3°C from human drivers.

This verification used U.S. government sources and IPCC-aligned findings. It did not independently review every attribution study in the literature — but the consensus across institutions is consistent enough that additional sources would not change the outcome.

## How was this verified?

Three live citations from two independent U.S. government agencies (NOAA and NASA) were fetched and verified against the original source pages, each confirming that human greenhouse gas emissions — not natural cycles — are the primary driver of current warming. You can read [the structured proof report](proof.md), examine [the full verification audit](proof_audit.md), or [re-run the proof yourself](proof.py).