# Reverse KPI — US Variant

> Region: United States, Canada
> Currency: USD
> Locale: Mature ad market, high CPM, strong conversion intent.

---

## US-specific benchmarks for reverse KPI

### Average deal size (AOV / ACV)

| Industry | B2C AOV typical | B2B ACV typical |
|----------|----------------|-----------------|
| DTC apparel | $40–$120 | — |
| DTC beauty/skincare | $50–$200 | — |
| DTC supplements | $40–$150 (+ subscription) | — |
| Consumer electronics | $80–$500 | — |
| Subscription box | $25–$60/mo | — |
| Online education / coaching | $200–$2K | — |
| Local services (legal, financial) | — | $1.5K–$15K |
| SaaS SMB | — | $5K–$50K |
| SaaS Mid-market | — | $30K–$200K |
| SaaS Enterprise | — | $100K–$500K+ |

> Use $200–$2K (B2C) and $5K–$50K (B2B) as planning anchors. Real AOV is what matters.

### Conversion rates by industry (US benchmarks)

| Industry | CTR | Click → Lead | Lead → Customer | Visitor → Order (e-com) |
|----------|-----|--------------|-----------------|-------------------------|
| DTC apparel | 1.2–2.5% | — | — | 1.8–3.5% |
| DTC beauty | 1.5–3% | — | — | 2–4% |
| DTC supplements | 1.5–3% | — | — | 2.5–5% |
| Education | 1.5–3% | 12–25% | 3–10% | — |
| SaaS | 1–2.5% | 8–18% | 12–25% | — |
| Lead-gen B2B | 1–2% | 8–15% | 15–30% | — |
| Local services | 1.5–3.5% | 10–20% | 25–40% | — |

### CPM / CPL / CAC (US 2025–2026)

| Channel | CPM | CPL | CAC range |
|---------|-----|-----|-----------|
| Meta — DTC | $7–$15 | $15–$30 | $25–$80 |
| Meta — B2B | $15–$35 | $40–$120 | $200–$800 |
| Google Search — DTC | (CPC $1–$5) | $20–$40 | $30–$100 |
| Google Search — B2B | (CPC $5–$25) | $80–$300 | $400–$2K |
| TikTok — DTC | $5–$12 | $10–$25 | $25–$70 |
| LinkedIn — B2B | $25–$50 | $100–$300 | $500–$3K |

---

## Example 1 — Reverse calc: DTC skincare $200K/month revenue target

**Inputs:**
- AOV: $80
- Margin: 35%
- Industry: DTC beauty (e-commerce)
- Channels: Meta + Google + TikTok

**Reverse calculation (Base scenario):**

| Step | Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic |
|------|-------------|------|------------|
| Revenue target | $200,000 | $200,000 | $200,000 |
| AOV | $80 | $80 | $80 |
| **Orders needed** | **2,500** | **2,500** | **2,500** |
| Visitor → Order rate | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% |
| **Sessions needed** | **125,000** | **83,333** | **62,500** |
| CTR | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% |
| **Impressions needed** | **12.5M** | **5.55M** | **3.13M** |
| CPM | $13 | $10 | $7 |
| **Ad budget** | **$162,500** | **$55,500** | **$21,875** |
| **ROAS** | **1.23x** | **3.6x** | **9.1x** |

**Read:**
- Pessimistic: $162.5K spend for $200K revenue → ROAS 1.23x → losing money after fees
- Base: $55K → ROAS 3.6x → healthy, this is the planning number
- Optimistic: $22K → ROAS 9.1x → unrealistic for cold traffic at scale

**Plan with $55K base. Reserve $20K buffer in case actuals trend pessimistic.**

---

## Example 2 — Forward calc: B2B SaaS $30K/month budget

**Inputs:**
- ACV: $15,000
- Industry: SMB SaaS
- Channels: LinkedIn + Google Search

**Forward calculation:**

| Step | Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic |
|------|-------------|------|------------|
| Budget | $30,000 | $30,000 | $30,000 |
| CPL (LinkedIn-heavy) | $200 | $130 | $80 |
| **Leads** | **150** | **231** | **375** |
| Lead → MQL | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| **MQLs** | **45** | **92** | **188** |
| MQL → SQL | 25% | 35% | 45% |
| **SQLs** | **11** | **32** | **84** |
| SQL → Closed-won | 15% | 22% | 30% |
| **Customers** | **2** | **7** | **25** |
| ACV | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 |
| **Revenue (year 1)** | **$30K** | **$105K** | **$375K** |
| **ROAS (year 1)** | **1.0x** | **3.5x** | **12.5x** |

**Read:**
- Long sales cycle (6-9 months) — true ROAS only visible after a year
- Base case = $105K from $30K spend = healthy LTV:CAC
- Plan for 6-month learning curve before optimizing

---

## US-specific cost considerations

| Cost line | Typical % of revenue | Notes |
|-----------|---------------------|-------|
| Ad spend | 15–30% | Higher for new brands, lower at scale |
| COGS (DTC) | 25–45% | Margin compression in saturated niches |
| Shipping (DTC) | 8–15% | Free shipping over $50 standard |
| Payment processing | 2.5–3.5% | Stripe/PayPal/Shopify Payments |
| Returns | 5–15% | Apparel highest, beauty lowest |
| Software/SaaS | 3–8% | Klaviyo, Shopify, Triple Whale, etc. |
| US sales tax (depending on state) | 0–10.25% | Use TaxJar/Avalara for compliance |

---

## US-specific seasonality

| Period | CPM impact | Action |
|--------|-----------|--------|
| Q4 (Oct-Dec, esp Nov-Dec) | +30–60% | Pre-load Q3, raise CAC tolerance temporarily |
| Black Friday / Cyber Monday | +50–100% (auction peak) | Plan creative 4-6 weeks ahead |
| New Year (Jan) | -20% (cheap) | Re-engage, list cleanup, retargeting heavy |
| Valentine's, Mother's Day, Father's Day | +15–25% | Plan gift-focused creative 3 weeks ahead |
| Summer (Jun-Aug) | -10–15% | Travel/lifestyle brands peak, others quieter |
| Back to school (Aug-Sep) | +10–20% | Education + apparel peak |
| Memorial Day, Labor Day, July 4 | +20% | Promo-heavy, lifestyle |

---

## US examples by industry

### Subscription box ($35/mo, 12-mo LTV $250)

```
Goal: 1,000 active subscribers in 6 months
Required new subs/month: 200 (assumes 5% monthly churn)
CAC target: $50 max (LTV:CAC = 5:1)
Monthly budget: 200 × $50 = $10,000
Channels: Meta 50%, TikTok 30%, Influencer 20%
```

### B2B SaaS ($1,200 ACV, free trial → paid)

```
Goal: $50K ARR in 12 months
Required customers: 42 (=$50K / $1,200)
LinkedIn CPL $150, Trial-to-paid 18%
Required leads: 42 / 0.18 = 233 leads
Annual budget: 233 × $150 = $35,000 (ad spend)
+ Sales cost: 1 SDR × $80K loaded
Total: $115K to land $50K ARR (year 1) = LTV-driven
```

### DTC apparel ($80 AOV, 25% margin)

```
Goal: $300K/month revenue
Orders needed: 3,750
Visitor → Order: 3% (good for apparel)
Sessions: 125K
CPM $10, CTR 1.5% → 3.75M impressions
Budget: $37.5K
ROAS: 8.0x (achievable with retargeting + email)
```

---

## Quality checklist — US variant

- [ ] AOV/ACV is your actual number, not industry generic
- [ ] All numbers in USD with no FX confusion
- [ ] Margin and COGS factored into break-even
- [ ] Q4 seasonality factored if dates overlap
- [ ] LTV computed (subscription/repeat) for true ROAS
- [ ] Sales tax allocation noted if multi-state
- [ ] If B2B: 6-12 month sales cycle factored
- [ ] If DTC: free shipping threshold consistent with AOV
- [ ] Returns rate in cost model
- [ ] Channel mix matches funnel (LinkedIn for B2B, Meta/TikTok for DTC)

---

## Cross-reference

- Full SKILL.md router: `../SKILL.md`
- Other regions: `02-eu.md`, `03-sea.md`, `04-latam.md`
- Performance eval: `../../03-performance-eval-global/variants/01-us.md`
- Channel setup: `../../11-channel-setup-global/variants/01-us.md`
