# Competitive Intelligence Anti-Patterns And Biases

Purpose: Use this file when an analysis risks becoming reactive, biased, copycat-driven, or strategically irrelevant.

## Contents

- Competitive intelligence anti-patterns
- Cognitive biases
- Prevention checklist

## Intelligence Anti-Patterns

| ID | Pattern | Failure mode | Countermeasure |
|---|---|---|---|
| `CI-01` | Over-indexing on competitors | reacts to rivals instead of customer value | translate every finding into customer impact |
| `CI-02` | Copycat strategy | loses differentiation and margin | use ERRC or moat framing before parity moves |
| `CI-03` | One-off analysis | insight becomes stale quickly | schedule recurring updates and SHARPEN |
| `CI-04` | Price obsession | starts destructive discounting | compare TCO and value, not only list price |
| `CI-05` | Ignoring indirect competitors | misses substitutes and real share loss | define competition through the job-to-be-done |
| `CI-06` | Siloed data reading | creates false certainty from one department | review across product, marketing, and sales |
| `CI-07` | Collecting irrelevant detail | wastes time and blurs decision-making | define the decision question before collecting |

## Cognitive Biases

| Bias | Typical distortion | Countermeasure |
|---|---|---|
| Confirmation bias | only collects evidence that fits the current belief | actively search for disconfirming evidence |
| Anchoring | overweights the first signal | compare multiple sources before synthesis |
| Availability bias | recent or loud events dominate the narrative | check historical and longitudinal data |
| Survivor bias | studies only winners | include failed or shrinking competitors |
| Groupthink | team converges too fast | assign a devil's advocate or second pass |
| Normalcy bias | underestimates competitor impact | include downside scenarios explicitly |

## Prevention Checklist

### Before analysis

- [ ] define the decision this work must influence
- [ ] list direct competitors and substitutes
- [ ] write the starting assumptions to make bias visible

### During analysis

- [ ] use multiple independent sources
- [ ] look for disconfirming evidence on purpose
- [ ] compare value, not just price or feature count
- [ ] keep differentiation as the end state

### After analysis

- [ ] translate findings into customer value
- [ ] state confidence and gaps
- [ ] define the next refresh timing
- [ ] note whether cross-functional review is needed
