---
pattern: 6
type: failure
name: Formulaic Challenges and Prospects
pack: en-content
language: en
---

# Pattern 6 (en): Formulaic Challenges and Prospects — Failure Case (False Positive)

## Input Text

> FDA approval for the company's lead compound typically takes 14 months from submission. If the Phase III data from the ongoing 1,200-patient trial is negative, the company plans to pivot to its secondary compound, a JAK inhibitor currently in Phase II, and target a European Medicines Agency filing by Q2 2026. A negative outcome would also trigger a $45 million write-down on the lead program's capitalized development costs.

## Expected Output

> (No correction — Pattern 6 should not fire on this text)

## Applied Pattern

- Pattern 6 (Formulaic Challenges and Prospects): The text discusses challenges (negative trial data, write-down) and future plans (pivot to secondary compound, EMA filing), which could superficially resemble the challenges-and-prospects formula.

## Judgment

**Failure (false positive)** — The exclusion condition applies: the uncertainty here is expressed with specific caveats, not generic formulas. The challenge is a concrete scenario (negative Phase III data from a named trial size), with a named financial consequence ($45 million write-down). The forward-looking statement is a specific contingency plan (pivot to a named compound, target a named regulator, by a specific quarter). Pattern 6 targets the vague "despite challenges... bright future" formula where both poles are empty. This text has neither vague challenges nor vague optimism — every claim is bounded by numbers, dates, and named entities. Firing here would penalize precisely the kind of specific, conditional reasoning that good analytical writing requires.
