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* MCP Tool: analyze_coalition_dynamics
*
* Detect voting coalitions, cross-party alliances, group cohesion rates,
* and coalition stress indicators.
*
* **Intelligence Perspective:** Coalition analysis tool detecting voting blocs,
* measuring political group cohesion, and identifying emerging cross-party alliances
* using CIA Coalition Analysis methodology.
*
* ISMS Policy: SC-002 (Input Validation), AC-003 (Least Privilege)
*/
import { AnalyzeCoalitionDynamicsSchema } from '../schemas/europeanParliament.js';
import { buildToolResponse } from './shared/responseBuilder.js';
import { buildTimeoutResponse } from './shared/errorHandler.js';
import type { ToolResult } from './shared/types.js';
import type { DataAvailability, MetricResult } from '../types/index.js';
import type { MEP } from '../types/europeanParliament.js';
import { auditLogger, toErrorMessage } from '../utils/auditLogger.js';
import { fetchAllCurrentMEPs } from '../utils/mepFetcher.js';
import { normalizePoliticalGroup } from '../utils/politicalGroupNormalization.js';
import { withTimeout, withTimeoutAndAbort, TimeoutError } from '../utils/timeout.js';
import { doceoClient } from '../clients/ep/doceoClient.js';
/**
* Maximum wall-clock time (ms) allowed for the full coalition-dynamics
* computation (MEP pagination + metrics). Chosen to be comfortably below
* the integration-test timeout of 180 000 ms so the tool can return a
* graceful `timedOut: true` response instead of being killed by the test
* runner.
*/
const OPERATION_TIMEOUT_MS = 150_000;
const DOCEO_COHESION_TIMEOUT_MS = 2_000;
const DOCEO_COHESION_CACHE_TTL_MS = 5 * 60_000;
interface DoceoCohesionResult {
cohesionMap: Map<string, { cohesion: number; sharedVotes: number; totalVotes: number }>;
voteCount: number;
/** Number of DOCEO votes that had group-level breakdown data (RCV-backed). */
rcvVoteCount: number;
}
let doceoCohesionCache:
| { expiresAt: number; value: DoceoCohesionResult }
| undefined;
/**
* Test-only hook for resetting bounded DOCEO cohesion cache between isolated specs.
* @internal
*/
export function clearDoceoCoalitionCohesionCache(): void {
doceoCohesionCache = undefined;
}
export { normalizePoliticalGroup };
interface CoalitionPairAnalysis {
groupA: string;
groupB: string;
/**
* Group-size balance ratio in `[0, 1]` computed as
* `min(sizeA, sizeB) / max(sizeA, sizeB)`. This is **NOT** vote-level
* cohesion (Hix/Noury/Roland sense) — it is a structural proxy reflecting
* how similarly sized the two groups are. Two groups with almost identical
* seat counts can score `1.0` here while voting on opposite sides of every
* roll-call.
*/
sizeSimilarityScore: number;
/**
* Vote-level alignment score in `[0, 1]` (Hix/Noury/Roland-style cohesion).
* Populated from recent DOCEO roll-call XML groupBreakdown data when available;
* otherwise `null` when near-real-time vote data cannot be fetched.
*/
cohesion: number | null;
/** Number of comparable recent DOCEO votes where both groups had the same majority position. */
sharedVotes: number | null;
/** Number of comparable recent DOCEO votes used for the pair cohesion calculation. */
totalVotes: number | null;
/**
* `true` when the size-similarity score exceeds `minimumCohesion`. This is a
* structural signal (groups are similarly sized and *could* form a balanced
* alliance), not evidence of actual voting alignment.
*/
allianceSignal: boolean;
/**
* DOCEO-backed cohesion classification. Set to `null` whenever recent DOCEO
* alignment data is unavailable; never derived from static size similarity.
*/
trend: string | null;
}
interface GroupCohesionMetrics {
groupId: string;
memberCount: number;
/** null when EP API does not provide per-MEP voting statistics */
internalCohesion: number | null;
/** null when EP API does not provide per-MEP voting statistics */
defectionRate: number | null;
/** null when EP API does not provide per-MEP voting statistics */
avgAttendance: number | null;
/** Voting-derived stress indicator; null when EP API does not provide voting statistics */
stressIndicator: MetricResult;
/** Explicit marker indicating whether voting-derived metrics are available */
dataAvailability: DataAvailability;
computedAttributes: {
disciplineScore: number | null;
fragmentationRisk: number | null;
unityTrend: string;
activeParticipationRate: number | null;
};
}
interface CoalitionDynamicsAnalysis {
period: { from: string; to: string };
groupMetrics: GroupCohesionMetrics[];
coalitionPairs: CoalitionPairAnalysis[];
dominantCoalition: {
groups: string[];
combinedStrength: number | null;
/** Vote-level cohesion of the dominant pair; `null` until vote-level data is available. */
cohesion: number | null;
/** Group-size balance ratio of the dominant pair (structural proxy, not vote alignment). */
sizeSimilarityScore: number;
};
stressIndicators: { indicator: string; severity: string; affectedGroups: string[] }[];
computedAttributes: {
/** null when group coverage is incomplete (at least one target group has memberCount 0) */
parliamentaryFragmentation: number | null;
/** null when group coverage is incomplete (at least one target group has memberCount 0) */
effectiveNumberOfParties: number | null;
/** null when cohesion data is UNAVAILABLE */
grandCoalitionViability: number | null;
oppositionStrength: number;
};
/**
* Data coverage counters — allow consumers to detect partial data before
* acting on derived analytics. `groupsTotal` is the size of the **analyzed
* target set after normalization and deduplication** (callers passing
* aliases/duplicates collapse to canonical codes); `groupsKnown` is the
* number of those groups that matched at least one MEP from the EP API
* after label normalization.
*/
coverage: {
groupsKnown: number;
groupsTotal: number;
/** Raw EP API political-group labels observed whose canonical group was not in the analyzed target set (after normalization). Labels are sanitized — control characters stripped, whitespace collapsed, and length capped. */
unrecognizedGroups: string[];
};
confidenceLevel: 'HIGH' | 'MEDIUM' | 'LOW';
dataFreshness: string;
sourceAttribution: string;
methodology: string;
dataQualityWarnings: string[];
/**
* Machine-readable disclosure of the limitations baked into this response.
* Always populated so downstream consumers cannot accidentally treat
* `coalitionPairs[].sizeSimilarityScore` as vote-level cohesion.
*/
methodologyNote: string;
}
/**
* Canonical EP10 (post-July-2024 constitutive session) political groups.
*
* Order reflects seat-share descending as of the EP10 constitutive composition
* (EPP largest → NI smallest). `ID` is intentionally excluded: it was dissolved
* in July 2024 and succeeded by `PfE` (Patriots for Europe). `ESN` (Europe of
* Sovereign Nations) is a new group formed in July 2024.
*
* @see {@link normalizePoliticalGroup} for mapping raw EP API labels to these codes.
*/
const POLITICAL_GROUPS = ['EPP', 'S&D', 'Renew', 'Greens/EFA', 'ECR', 'PfE', 'The Left', 'ESN', 'NI'];
/**
* Upper bound on the length of a sanitized raw EP API political-group label
* when echoed back in `coverage.unrecognizedGroups` or warning messages.
* Guards against unbounded response sizes from pathological upstream payloads.
*/
const MAX_UNRECOGNIZED_LABEL_LENGTH = 120;
/**
* Alias table and {@link normalizePoliticalGroup} have been moved to
* `src/utils/politicalGroupNormalization.ts` so multiple tools can reuse the
* same canonicalisation without depending on this module. The function is
* re-exported above for backward compatibility.
*/
/**
* Normalizes a list of caller-supplied group identifiers into a deduplicated
* sequence of canonical EP10 codes, preserving the first-seen order.
*
* Accepts any input format supported by {@link normalizePoliticalGroup}
* (short codes, URI suffixes, full group names, historical aliases such as
* `ID` → `PfE`). Empty / whitespace-only / `"unknown"` entries and duplicates
* after normalization are dropped. Unrecognized labels are preserved as-is
* (after trimming) so downstream coverage reporting can surface them.
*
* @param groupIds - Raw caller-provided group identifiers
* @returns Deduplicated canonical group identifiers in first-seen order
*/
function normalizeTargetGroups(groupIds: readonly string[]): string[] {
const seen = new Set<string>();
const result: string[] = [];
for (const raw of groupIds) {
const canonical = normalizePoliticalGroup(raw);
if (canonical === '' || canonical.toLowerCase() === 'unknown') continue;
if (seen.has(canonical)) continue;
seen.add(canonical);
result.push(canonical);
}
return result;
}
/**
* Sanitizes a raw EP API political-group label for safe inclusion in the
* response (`coverage.unrecognizedGroups`) and warning messages.
*
* Strips ASCII control characters (including CR/LF that would break
* warning-line rendering), collapses internal runs of whitespace to a single
* space, trims, and caps the length at `MAX_UNRECOGNIZED_LABEL_LENGTH`
* characters (truncation suffixed with `…`) to guard against pathological or
* injected payloads producing unbounded response sizes.
*
* @param raw - Raw EP API political-group label
* @returns Sanitized label suitable for echoing back to consumers
*/
function sanitizeUnrecognizedLabel(raw: string): string {
const stripped = raw.replace(/[\x00-\x1F\x7F]+/g, ' ').replace(/\s+/g, ' ').trim();
if (stripped.length <= MAX_UNRECOGNIZED_LABEL_LENGTH) return stripped;
return `${stripped.slice(0, MAX_UNRECOGNIZED_LABEL_LENGTH - 1)}…`;
}
/**
* Computes a pairwise coalition pair record for two political groups.
*
* The EP API `/meps/{id}` endpoint does not expose per-vote statistics, so this
* function always emits a separate `sizeSimilarityScore` computed from group-size
* balance. When recent DOCEO roll-call XML is available, it also fills
* `cohesion`, `trend`, `sharedVotes`, and `totalVotes` from group-level majority
* vote alignment; otherwise those DOCEO-backed fields remain `null`.
*
* Formula: `sizeSimilarityScore = min(sizeA, sizeB) / max(sizeA, sizeB)` (range 0–1).
* This naming separation (per issue #3) prevents downstream consumers
* from misreading a size-ratio artefact as evidence of political alignment
* (e.g. Renew + ECR scoring `0.95` purely because they hold 77 vs 81 seats).
*
* @param groupA - Political group identifier for the first group
* @param groupB - Political group identifier for the second group
* @param groupAMembers - Sample-based member count estimate (lower bound) for `groupA` derived from EP API data
* @param groupBMembers - Sample-based member count estimate (lower bound) for `groupB` derived from EP API data
* @param minimumSizeSimilarity - Threshold above which `allianceSignal` is set to `true`
* (compared against `sizeSimilarityScore` — a structural signal, not vote alignment).
* Sourced from the public `minimumCohesion` input, which is preserved for
* backward-compatibility but applied to the size-similarity proxy until
* vote-level cohesion is available.
* @returns {@link CoalitionPairAnalysis} record where `sizeSimilarityScore` is
* the size-balance proxy and, when recent DOCEO roll-call data is available,
* `cohesion`/`trend`/`sharedVotes`/`totalVotes` are populated from group-level
* majority-position alignment. They remain `null` only when DOCEO data is unavailable.
*/
function computePairSizeSimilarity(
groupA: string,
groupB: string,
groupAMembers: number,
groupBMembers: number,
opts: PairSimilarityOptions
): CoalitionPairAnalysis {
const totalMembers = groupAMembers + groupBMembers;
const balance = totalMembers > 0
? Math.min(groupAMembers, groupBMembers) / Math.max(1, Math.max(groupAMembers, groupBMembers))
: 0;
const sizeSimilarityScore = Math.round(balance * 100) / 100;
const pairKey = makePairKey(groupA, groupB);
const doceoEntry = opts.cohesionMap?.get(pairKey);
const cohesion = doceoEntry?.cohesion ?? null;
const sharedVotes = doceoEntry?.sharedVotes ?? null;
const totalVotes = doceoEntry?.totalVotes ?? null;
const trend = doceoEntry !== undefined ? classifyDoceoTrend(doceoEntry.cohesion) : null;
return {
groupA,
groupB,
sizeSimilarityScore,
cohesion,
sharedVotes,
totalVotes,
allianceSignal: sizeSimilarityScore > opts.minimumSizeSimilarity,
trend,
};
}
/** Options for pair size similarity computation. */
interface PairSimilarityOptions {
minimumSizeSimilarity: number;
cohesionMap?: Map<string, { cohesion: number; sharedVotes: number; totalVotes: number }>;
}
/** Classify DOCEO vote cohesion score as a trend direction. */
function classifyDoceoTrend(cohesion: number): string {
if (cohesion >= 0.6) return 'CONVERGING';
if (cohesion <= 0.4) return 'DIVERGING';
return 'STABLE';
}
interface PairVoteStats { sameVotes: number; totalVotes: number }
type GroupVotePosition = 'FOR' | 'AGAINST' | 'ABSTAIN' | 'SPLIT';
/** Stable canonical key for a group pair (alphabetical order). */
function makePairKey(a: string, b: string): string {
return a < b ? `${a}:${b}` : `${b}:${a}`;
}
/** Determine the majority position for a group, returning SPLIT on ties. */
function getGroupVotePosition(
counts: { for: number; against: number; abstain: number }
): GroupVotePosition {
const max = Math.max(counts.for, counts.against, counts.abstain);
const forWins = counts.for === max;
const againstWins = counts.against === max;
const abstainWins = counts.abstain === max;
if (forWins && !againstWins && !abstainWins) return 'FOR';
if (againstWins && !forWins && !abstainWins) return 'AGAINST';
if (abstainWins && !forWins && !againstWins) return 'ABSTAIN';
return 'SPLIT';
}
/** Merge raw group breakdown entries by canonical political-group code. */
function normalizeGroupBreakdown(
breakdown: Record<string, { for: number; against: number; abstain: number }>
): Map<string, { for: number; against: number; abstain: number }> {
const normalized = new Map<string, { for: number; against: number; abstain: number }>();
for (const [group, counts] of Object.entries(breakdown)) {
const normalizedGroup = normalizePoliticalGroup(group);
Iif (normalizedGroup === 'unknown') continue;
const existing = normalized.get(normalizedGroup) ?? { for: 0, against: 0, abstain: 0 };
normalized.set(normalizedGroup, {
for: existing.for + counts.for,
against: existing.against + counts.against,
abstain: existing.abstain + counts.abstain,
});
}
return normalized;
}
/** Tally votes for a single pair of groups from their majority positions. */
function recordGroupPairVote(
gA: string,
gB: string,
positions: Map<string, GroupVotePosition>,
pairStats: Map<string, PairVoteStats>
): void {
const aPosition = positions.get(gA);
const bPosition = positions.get(gB);
Iif (aPosition === undefined || bPosition === undefined) return;
if (aPosition === 'SPLIT' || bPosition === 'SPLIT') return;
const key = makePairKey(gA, gB);
const existing = pairStats.get(key) ?? { sameVotes: 0, totalVotes: 0 };
pairStats.set(key, {
sameVotes: existing.sameVotes + (aPosition === bPosition ? 1 : 0),
totalVotes: existing.totalVotes + 1,
});
}
/** Extract the majority position per group from a normalized groupBreakdown record. */
function extractGroupPositions(
breakdown: Map<string, { for: number; against: number; abstain: number }>
): Map<string, GroupVotePosition> {
const positions = new Map<string, GroupVotePosition>();
for (const [group, counts] of breakdown) {
positions.set(group, getGroupVotePosition(counts));
}
return positions;
}
/** Process all group pairs from a single vote's breakdown. */
function processVoteGroupPairs(
breakdown: Record<string, { for: number; against: number; abstain: number }>,
pairStats: Map<string, PairVoteStats>
): void {
const normalizedBreakdown = normalizeGroupBreakdown(breakdown);
const groups = [...normalizedBreakdown.keys()];
Iif (groups.length < 2) return;
const positions = extractGroupPositions(normalizedBreakdown);
for (let i = 0; i < groups.length; i++) {
for (let j = i + 1; j < groups.length; j++) {
const gA = groups[i];
const gB = groups[j];
Iif (gA === undefined || gB === undefined) continue;
recordGroupPairVote(gA, gB, positions, pairStats);
}
}
}
/** Convert raw pair tallies to normalized cohesion values. */
function buildCohesionMap(
pairStats: Map<string, PairVoteStats>
): Map<string, { cohesion: number; sharedVotes: number; totalVotes: number }> {
const result = new Map<string, { cohesion: number; sharedVotes: number; totalVotes: number }>();
for (const [key, stats] of pairStats) {
Iif (stats.totalVotes === 0) continue;
result.set(key, {
cohesion: Math.round((stats.sameVotes / stats.totalVotes) * 100) / 100,
sharedVotes: stats.sameVotes,
totalVotes: stats.totalVotes,
});
}
return result;
}
function emptyDoceoCohesionResult(): DoceoCohesionResult {
return { cohesionMap: new Map(), voteCount: 0, rcvVoteCount: 0 };
}
/** Fetch recent DOCEO votes and compute inter-group cohesion statistics. */
async function computeCoalitionCohesionFromDoceo(
abortSignal: AbortSignal
): Promise<DoceoCohesionResult> {
const response = await doceoClient.getLatestVotes({
includeIndividualVotes: false,
limit: 100,
abortSignal,
});
const pairStats = new Map<string, PairVoteStats>();
let rcvVoteCount = 0;
for (const vote of response.data) {
Eif (vote.groupBreakdown !== undefined) {
rcvVoteCount++;
processVoteGroupPairs(vote.groupBreakdown, pairStats);
}
}
return {
cohesionMap: buildCohesionMap(pairStats),
voteCount: response.data.length,
rcvVoteCount,
};
}
/**
* Load DOCEO coalition cohesion data, returning an empty result on any error.
* Errors are silently suppressed — DOCEO data enriches but does not block the tool.
*/
async function loadDoceoCoalitionCohesion(): Promise<DoceoCohesionResult> {
const now = Date.now();
if (doceoCohesionCache !== undefined && doceoCohesionCache.expiresAt > now) {
return doceoCohesionCache.value;
}
try {
const value = await withTimeoutAndAbort(
computeCoalitionCohesionFromDoceo,
DOCEO_COHESION_TIMEOUT_MS,
'DOCEO coalition cohesion enrichment timed out'
);
doceoCohesionCache = {
expiresAt: now + DOCEO_COHESION_CACHE_TTL_MS,
value,
};
return value;
} catch {
const value = emptyDoceoCohesionResult();
doceoCohesionCache = {
expiresAt: now + DOCEO_COHESION_CACHE_TTL_MS,
value,
};
return value;
}
}
/**
* Fetches all current MEPs once and computes per-group membership counts in-memory.
*
* **Note (data source):** Uses `getCurrentMEPs()` to paginate through `/meps/show-current`
* in batches of 100, then counts per group locally. This avoids per-group API calls that
* each trigger a full multi-page fetch when client-side filtering is used.
*
* **Note (label normalization):** Raw `politicalGroup` strings from the EP API
* are passed through {@link normalizePoliticalGroup} before tallying, so MEPs
* whose group is returned as a URI, full name, or historical alias (e.g. `ID`
* → `PfE`) are counted against the correct canonical short code. Raw labels
* whose canonical group is not in the analyzed target set (after
* normalization) are collected — sanitized via
* {@link sanitizeUnrecognizedLabel} — in the returned `unrecognizedGroups`
* set so consumers can surface a data-quality warning. Note that this
* includes recognized canonical groups that were simply outside `groupIds`.
*
* **Note (voting data):** The EP API does not provide per-MEP voting statistics.
* As a result, `internalCohesion`, `defectionRate`, and `avgAttendance` are set to
* `null`, `dataAvailability` and `stressIndicator.availability` are set to
* `'UNAVAILABLE'`, and `unityTrend` is `'UNKNOWN'`. Callers should treat these
* fields as "not available" and supplement with vote-result data when available.
*
* @param targetGroups - Political group identifiers to query (e.g., `['EPP', 'S&D']`)
* @param allMeps - Pre-fetched array of current MEPs
* @returns Object with per-group cohesion metrics and the set of sanitized
* EP API group labels whose canonical group was not in the analyzed target
* set after normalization (for data-quality reporting).
*/
function buildGroupMetrics(
targetGroups: string[],
allMeps: MEP[]
): { metrics: GroupCohesionMetrics[]; unrecognizedGroups: string[] } {
const targetSet = new Set(targetGroups);
const groupCounts = new Map<string, number>();
const unrecognizedSet = new Set<string>();
for (const mep of allMeps) {
const raw = mep.politicalGroup.trim();
Iif (raw === '') continue;
const canonical = normalizePoliticalGroup(raw);
Iif (canonical === '' || canonical.toLowerCase() === 'unknown') continue;
if (targetSet.has(canonical)) {
groupCounts.set(canonical, (groupCounts.get(canonical) ?? 0) + 1);
} else {
unrecognizedSet.add(sanitizeUnrecognizedLabel(raw));
}
}
const metrics: GroupCohesionMetrics[] = [];
for (const groupId of targetGroups) {
const memberCount = groupCounts.get(groupId) ?? 0;
metrics.push({
groupId,
memberCount,
internalCohesion: null,
defectionRate: null,
avgAttendance: null,
stressIndicator: {
value: null,
availability: 'UNAVAILABLE',
confidence: 'LOW',
reason: 'Per-MEP voting statistics not available from EP API'
},
dataAvailability: 'UNAVAILABLE',
computedAttributes: {
disciplineScore: null,
fragmentationRisk: null,
unityTrend: 'UNKNOWN',
activeParticipationRate: null
}
});
}
return { metrics, unrecognizedGroups: [...unrecognizedSet].sort() };
}
/**
* Builds all pairwise coalition pair analyses for the target groups.
*
* Iterates over the upper-triangle of group combinations (O(n²)) and calls
* {@link computePairSizeSimilarity} for each pair using the sample-based `memberCount`
* estimates from `groupMetrics` (see {@link buildGroupMetrics} for data scope limits).
* A `groupId → memberCount` `Map` is built once up front so per-pair member-count
* lookups are O(1), keeping the overall complexity at O(n²).
*
* @param targetGroups - Ordered list of political group identifiers
* @param minimumSizeSimilarity - Threshold against which `sizeSimilarityScore`
* is compared to set `allianceSignal` (sourced from the public
* `minimumCohesion` input — see {@link computePairSizeSimilarity})
* @param groupMetrics - Pre-fetched group metrics containing sampled `memberCount` per group
* @returns Array of {@link CoalitionPairAnalysis} records for every group combination
*/
function buildCoalitionPairs(
targetGroups: string[],
minimumSizeSimilarity: number,
groupMetrics: GroupCohesionMetrics[],
cohesionMap?: Map<string, { cohesion: number; sharedVotes: number; totalVotes: number }>
): CoalitionPairAnalysis[] {
const memberCountByGroup = new Map<string, number>();
for (const metric of groupMetrics) {
memberCountByGroup.set(metric.groupId, metric.memberCount);
}
const opts: PairSimilarityOptions = {
minimumSizeSimilarity,
...(cohesionMap !== undefined && { cohesionMap }),
};
const pairs: CoalitionPairAnalysis[] = [];
for (let i = 0; i < targetGroups.length; i++) {
for (let j = i + 1; j < targetGroups.length; j++) {
const groupA = targetGroups[i];
const groupB = targetGroups[j];
Iif (groupA === undefined || groupB === undefined) continue;
pairs.push(computePairSizeSimilarity(
groupA, groupB,
memberCountByGroup.get(groupA) ?? 0,
memberCountByGroup.get(groupB) ?? 0,
opts
));
}
}
return pairs;
}
/**
* Maps a numeric stress indicator to a qualitative severity string.
*
* Threshold: stress > 0.7 → `'HIGH'`; otherwise → `'MODERATE'`.
* A `'LOW'` tier is not emitted here because only groups with
* `stressIndicator > 0.5` reach this function (see {@link computeStressIndicators}).
*
* @param stress - Stress indicator value in `[0, 1]`
* @returns Severity classification: `'HIGH'` or `'MODERATE'`
*/
function classifyStressSeverity(stress: number): string {
if (stress > 0.7) return 'HIGH';
return 'MODERATE';
}
/**
* Derives stress indicator records from group metrics.
*
* Conceptually, this emits records only for groups where
* `stressIndicator.value > 0.5` (moderate-to-high internal tension). Each
* record contains a human-readable indicator description, a severity
* classification from {@link classifyStressSeverity}, and the list of
* affected groups.
*
* **Current data limitation:** The upstream {@link buildGroupMetrics} implementation
* sets `stressIndicator.value` to `null` (UNAVAILABLE due to missing EP
* vote-level statistics). As a result, the `stress !== null && stress > 0.5`
* guard in this function is never satisfied and it will currently return an
* empty array until real stress values are populated.
*
* @param groupMetrics - Array of group cohesion metric objects
* @returns Array of stress indicator records for groups exceeding the 0.5 threshold;
* currently always empty due to `stressIndicator.value` being `null` (EP API limitation)
*/
function computeStressIndicators(groupMetrics: GroupCohesionMetrics[]): { indicator: string; severity: string; affectedGroups: string[] }[] {
const results: { indicator: string; severity: string; affectedGroups: string[] }[] = [];
for (const g of groupMetrics) {
const stress = g.stressIndicator.value;
Iif (stress !== null && stress > 0.5) {
results.push({
indicator: `High defection rate in ${g.groupId}`,
severity: classifyStressSeverity(stress),
affectedGroups: [g.groupId]
});
}
}
return results;
}
/**
* Computes parliamentary fragmentation metrics using the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI).
*
* **Effective Number of Parties (ENP):** `1 / Σ(seatShare²)` — a standard political
* science measure of party-system fragmentation. Higher values indicate a more
* fragmented parliament.
*
* **Grand coalition viability:** Approximated as the mean of EPP and S&D internal
* cohesion scores, since a grand coalition between the two largest groups is the
* canonical EP majority formation scenario. A value of `null` reflects the current
* data limitation (voting statistics unavailable from the EP API and thus no
* reliable viability score can be computed).
*
* @param groupMetrics - Array of group metrics with `memberCount` and `internalCohesion`
* @returns Object with `effectiveParties` (ENP) and `grandCoalitionViability` (0–1 or `null` when unavailable)
*/
function computeFragmentationMetrics(groupMetrics: GroupCohesionMetrics[]): {
effectiveParties: number;
grandCoalitionViability: number | null;
} {
const totalMembers = groupMetrics.reduce((sum, g) => sum + g.memberCount, 0);
const seatShares = groupMetrics.map(g => totalMembers > 0 ? g.memberCount / totalMembers : 0);
const herfindahl = seatShares.reduce((sum, s) => sum + s * s, 0);
const effectiveParties = herfindahl > 0 ? 1 / herfindahl : 1;
const eppCohesion = groupMetrics.find(g => g.groupId === 'EPP')?.internalCohesion ?? null;
const sdCohesion = groupMetrics.find(g => g.groupId === 'S&D')?.internalCohesion ?? null;
const grandCoalitionViability = (eppCohesion !== null && sdCohesion !== null)
? Math.round((eppCohesion + sdCohesion) / 2 * 100) / 100
: null;
return { effectiveParties, grandCoalitionViability };
}
/**
* Identifies the dominant coalition from the sorted pair list.
*
* The dominant coalition is the top-ranked pair by `sizeSimilarityScore`. Its
* `combinedStrength` is set to `sharedVotes`, which is currently `null`
* when vote-level data is unavailable due to EP API limitations — see
* {@link computePairSizeSimilarity}.
*
* @param sortedPairs - Coalition pairs sorted descending by `sizeSimilarityScore`
* @returns Dominant coalition record, or an empty record if the list is empty
*/
function buildDominantCoalition(sortedPairs: CoalitionPairAnalysis[]): {
groups: string[];
combinedStrength: number | null;
cohesion: number | null;
sizeSimilarityScore: number;
} {
const topPair = sortedPairs[0];
if (topPair === undefined) {
return { groups: [], combinedStrength: null, cohesion: null, sizeSimilarityScore: 0 };
}
return {
groups: [topPair.groupA, topPair.groupB],
combinedStrength: topPair.sharedVotes,
cohesion: topPair.cohesion,
sizeSimilarityScore: topPair.sizeSimilarityScore
};
}
/**
* Derives the `computedAttributes` block for the coalition dynamics analysis.
*
* - **`parliamentaryFragmentation`** and **`effectiveNumberOfParties`** both echo the
* ENP value (two fields for different consumer use cases). When `coverageComplete`
* is `false` (at least one target group has `memberCount: 0`) both are emitted
* as `null` to avoid a plausible-but-wrong fragmentation index — see the
* upstream data-quality warnings for the reason.
* - **`grandCoalitionViability`** reflects EPP + S&D cohesion mean (see
* {@link computeFragmentationMetrics}).
* - **`oppositionStrength`** is approximated as `1 − topSizeSimilarity`, where
* a lower top-pair size-similarity score implies a stronger opposition bloc.
* Note: this is a structural proxy derived from group-size ratios, not from
* vote-level cohesion (see {@link computePairSizeSimilarity}).
*
* @param fragMetrics - Fragmentation metrics from {@link computeFragmentationMetrics}
* @param sortedPairs - Coalition pairs sorted descending by `sizeSimilarityScore`
* @param coverageComplete - `true` when every target group matched at least one MEP;
* `false` triggers null fragmentation / ENP values to signal incomplete data
* @returns Computed attributes object for the coalition dynamics result
*/
function buildCoalitionComputedAttrs(
fragMetrics: { effectiveParties: number; grandCoalitionViability: number | null },
sortedPairs: CoalitionPairAnalysis[],
coverageComplete: boolean
): CoalitionDynamicsAnalysis['computedAttributes'] {
const topSizeSimilarity = sortedPairs[0]?.sizeSimilarityScore ?? 0;
const enp = coverageComplete
? Math.round(fragMetrics.effectiveParties * 100) / 100
: null;
return {
parliamentaryFragmentation: enp,
effectiveNumberOfParties: enp,
grandCoalitionViability: fragMetrics.grandCoalitionViability,
oppositionStrength: Math.round((1 - topSizeSimilarity) * 100) / 100
};
}
/**
* Renders a bounded, comma-separated preview of raw EP API group labels for
* inclusion in data-quality warning messages. When the list exceeds `max`
* entries the first `max` are rendered followed by a `(+N more)` suffix so
* consumers can tell the preview was truncated.
*/
function previewUnrecognized(labels: readonly string[], max = 10): string {
if (labels.length <= max) return labels.join(', ');
const extra = labels.length - max;
return `${labels.slice(0, max).join(', ')} (+${String(extra)} more)`;
}
/**
* Builds the `dataQualityWarnings` array for a coalition dynamics response.
*
* Encapsulates the coverage-warning branching so the request handler stays
* under the project's cyclomatic-complexity budget. Warnings cover three
* orthogonal data-quality concerns:
*
* 1. **Per-MEP vote data unavailable** (always emitted) — reflects the EP API
* `/meps/{id}` limitation for group metrics. Pair-level cohesion may still
* be enriched from DOCEO XML when recent roll-call data is available.
* 2. **Pagination failures** — emitted when the MEP fetch did not complete.
* 3. **Group coverage** — emitted when at least one target group has
* `memberCount: 0`, or when EP API labels were observed whose canonical
* group was not in the analyzed target set after normalization.
*
* @param fetchResult - Result from {@link fetchAllCurrentMEPs}; inspected for
* `complete` and `failureOffset` to decide whether to warn about partial data
* @param missingGroups - Target-group IDs that ended up with `memberCount: 0`
* @param totalGroups - Total number of target groups analyzed
* @param unrecognizedGroups - Sanitized EP API group labels whose canonical
* group was not in the analyzed target set after normalization
* @returns Ordered array of human-readable warning messages for the response
*/
function buildCoverageWarnings(
fetchResult: { complete: boolean; failureOffset?: number },
missingGroups: string[],
totalGroups: number,
unrecognizedGroups: string[]
): string[] {
const warnings: string[] = [
'Per-MEP voting statistics unavailable from EP API — cohesion, defection, and attendance metrics are null',
'coalitionPairs[].cohesion and coalitionPairs[].trend are populated from recent DOCEO XML group-level roll-call alignment when available; otherwise they are null and only coalitionPairs[].sizeSimilarityScore (group-size ratio proxy) is populated',
];
if (!fetchResult.complete) {
warnings.push(`MEP data is incomplete — pagination failed at offset ${String(fetchResult.failureOffset ?? 0)}; results based on partial data`);
}
if (missingGroups.length > 0) {
const observed = unrecognizedGroups.length > 0
? `Out-of-target EP API group labels observed (recognized canonical codes or unknown labels outside the requested groupIds): ${previewUnrecognized(unrecognizedGroups)}`
: 'No out-of-target EP API group labels observed — groups may have zero seats or the lookup table may be stale.';
warnings.push(`Incomplete group coverage — ${String(missingGroups.length)}/${String(totalGroups)} target group(s) returned memberCount: 0 (${missingGroups.join(', ')}); derived fragmentation/ENP set to null. ${observed}`);
} else if (unrecognizedGroups.length > 0) {
warnings.push(`Observed ${String(unrecognizedGroups.length)} EP API group label(s) not in the analyzed target set: ${previewUnrecognized(unrecognizedGroups)}`);
}
return warnings;
}
/**
* Handles the analyze_coalition_dynamics MCP tool request.
*
* Detects voting coalitions, cross-party alliances, group cohesion rates, and
* coalition stress indicators across European Parliament political groups.
* Uses CIA Coalition Analysis methodology to measure parliamentary fragmentation,
* effective number of parties, and grand-coalition viability.
*
* @param args - Raw tool arguments, validated against {@link AnalyzeCoalitionDynamicsSchema}
* @returns MCP tool result containing coalition pair cohesion scores, group cohesion
* metrics, dominant coalition, stress indicators, and computed fragmentation attributes
* @throws - If `args` fails schema validation (e.g., missing required fields or invalid format)
* - If the European Parliament API is unreachable or returns an error response
*
* @example
* ```typescript
* const result = await handleAnalyzeCoalitionDynamics({
* groupIds: ['EPP', 'S&D', 'Renew'],
* minimumCohesion: 0.5,
* dateFrom: '2024-01-01',
* dateTo: '2024-12-31'
* });
* // Returns coalition pair analysis with cohesion scores, stress indicators,
* // and parliamentary fragmentation index
* ```
*
* @security - Input is validated with Zod before any API call.
* - Personal data in responses is minimised per GDPR Article 5(1)(c).
* - All requests are rate-limited and audit-logged per ISMS Policy AU-002.
* @since 0.8.0
* @see {@link analyzeCoalitionDynamicsToolMetadata} for MCP schema registration
* @see {@link handleComparePoliticalGroups} for per-group dimension comparison
* Analyze coalition dynamics tool handler
*
* Detects voting coalitions, measures political group cohesion, and identifies
* cross-party alliances using CIA Coalition Analysis methodology. Fetches real
* MEP membership counts from the EP Open Data API; pairwise cohesion is derived
* from group-size ratios (per-MEP voting statistics are not available from the
* EP API `/meps/{id}` endpoint).
*
* **Analysis outputs:**
* - Group cohesion metrics (member count, stress indicator, fragmentation risk)
* - Pairwise coalition strength for each group combination
* - Dominant coalition identification
* - Stress indicators for groups with high internal tension
* - Parliament-wide fragmentation index (Herfindahl–Hirschman)
* - Effective number of parties (ENP)
*
* > **Note:** Confidence level is `LOW` because per-MEP voting statistics
* > are unavailable from the current EP API. Cohesion/defection/attendance
* > metrics are null with `dataAvailability: 'UNAVAILABLE'` and should be
* > supplemented with vote-result data when available.
*
* @param args - Tool arguments matching AnalyzeCoalitionDynamicsSchema
* @param args.groupIds - Political group identifiers to analyze (optional; defaults to all 9 EP10 groups)
* @param args.dateFrom - Analysis start date in YYYY-MM-DD format (optional)
* @param args.dateTo - Analysis end date in YYYY-MM-DD format (optional)
* @param args.minimumCohesion - Threshold used for `allianceSignal` detection in `[0, 1]`
* (default 0.5). Until per-MEP roll-call data is exposed by the EP Open Data Portal,
* this value is applied to `coalitionPairs[].sizeSimilarityScore` (a group-size
* ratio proxy), not to vote-level cohesion. The parameter name is preserved for
* backward compatibility.
* @returns MCP ToolResult containing `CoalitionDynamicsAnalysis` object as JSON
* @throws {Error} When the EP API request fails or group data cannot be fetched
* @throws {ZodError} When input fails schema validation (invalid group IDs, date format)
*
* @example
* ```typescript
* // Analyze all political groups with default settings
* const result = await handleAnalyzeCoalitionDynamics({});
* const analysis = JSON.parse(result.content[0].text);
* console.log(`Fragmentation index: ${analysis.computedAttributes.parliamentaryFragmentation}`);
* ```
*
* @example
* ```typescript
* // Analyze specific groups with higher alliance threshold
* const result = await handleAnalyzeCoalitionDynamics({
* groupIds: ["EPP", "S&D", "Renew"],
* minimumCohesion: 0.6,
* dateFrom: "2024-01-01",
* dateTo: "2024-12-31"
* });
* ```
*
* @security Input validated by Zod. Errors sanitized (no stack traces exposed).
* ISMS Policy: SC-002 (Input Validation), AC-003 (Least Privilege)
*/
export async function handleAnalyzeCoalitionDynamics(
args: unknown
): Promise<ToolResult> {
const params = AnalyzeCoalitionDynamicsSchema.parse(args);
try {
return await withTimeout(
(async (): Promise<ToolResult> => {
const targetGroups = normalizeTargetGroups(params.groupIds ?? POLITICAL_GROUPS);
if (targetGroups.length === 0) {
throw new Error(
'groupIds must contain at least one recognizable political-group identifier — '
+ 'all provided values were empty, whitespace-only, or normalized to "unknown"'
);
}
const fetchResult = await fetchAllCurrentMEPs();
const doceoCohesion = await loadDoceoCoalitionCohesion();
const cohesionMap = doceoCohesion.cohesionMap;
const hasDoceoData = doceoCohesion.rcvVoteCount > 0;
const { metrics: groupMetrics, unrecognizedGroups } = buildGroupMetrics(targetGroups, fetchResult.meps);
const coalitionPairs = buildCoalitionPairs(targetGroups, params.minimumCohesion, groupMetrics, cohesionMap);
const sortedPairs = [...coalitionPairs].sort((a, b) => b.sizeSimilarityScore - a.sizeSimilarityScore);
const stressIndicators = computeStressIndicators(groupMetrics);
const fragMetrics = computeFragmentationMetrics(groupMetrics);
const missingGroups = groupMetrics.filter(g => g.memberCount === 0).map(g => g.groupId);
const groupsKnown = groupMetrics.length - missingGroups.length;
const coverageComplete = missingGroups.length === 0;
const warnings = buildCoverageWarnings(fetchResult, missingGroups, groupMetrics.length, unrecognizedGroups);
const analysis: CoalitionDynamicsAnalysis = {
period: { from: params.dateFrom ?? '2024-01-01', to: params.dateTo ?? '2024-12-31' },
groupMetrics,
coalitionPairs: sortedPairs,
dominantCoalition: buildDominantCoalition(sortedPairs),
stressIndicators,
computedAttributes: buildCoalitionComputedAttrs(fragMetrics, sortedPairs, coverageComplete),
coverage: {
groupsKnown,
groupsTotal: groupMetrics.length,
unrecognizedGroups,
},
confidenceLevel: 'LOW',
dataFreshness: hasDoceoData
? 'Real-time EP API data + near-realtime DOCEO XML vote-level cohesion'
: 'Real-time EP API data — political group composition from current MEP records',
sourceAttribution: 'European Parliament Open Data Portal - data.europarl.europa.eu',
methodology: buildMethodologyText(hasDoceoData),
dataQualityWarnings: warnings,
methodologyNote: buildMethodologyNote(hasDoceoData),
};
return buildToolResponse(analysis);
})(),
OPERATION_TIMEOUT_MS,
'analyze_coalition_dynamics operation timed out'
);
} catch (error: unknown) {
if (error instanceof TimeoutError) {
return buildTimeoutResponse('analyze_coalition_dynamics', OPERATION_TIMEOUT_MS);
}
const errorMessage = error instanceof Error ? error.message : 'Unknown error';
auditLogger.logError('analyze_coalition_dynamics', params, toErrorMessage(error));
throw new Error(`Failed to analyze coalition dynamics: ${errorMessage}`);
}
}
/** Build methodology text for the coalition analysis report. */
function buildMethodologyText(hasDoceoData: boolean): string {
const base = 'CIA Coalition Analysis — group composition from real EP Open Data MEP records. '
+ 'Raw political-group labels from the EP API are normalized to canonical short codes '
+ '(e.g. full names, URI suffixes, and EP9→EP10 successions such as ID→PfE are mapped). ';
const voteSection = hasDoceoData
? 'DOCEO XML roll-call vote data was fetched for recent plenary activity. '
+ 'coalitionPairs[].cohesion is populated for comparable group pairs '
+ '(fraction of votes where both groups had the same majority position); '
+ 'split/tied group positions are excluded from the denominator, so some pairs may remain null. '
: 'Per-MEP voting statistics are not available from the EP API /meps/{id} endpoint; '
+ 'each group metric has dataAvailability: UNAVAILABLE with null cohesion/defection/attendance. '
+ 'coalitionPairs[].cohesion, coalitionPairs[].trend, coalitionPairs[].sharedVotes, '
+ 'and coalitionPairs[].totalVotes are null '
+ '(vote-alignment data not available — DOCEO XML fetch returned no data). ';
const suffix = 'coalitionPairs[].sizeSimilarityScore is a group-size ratio proxy (min/max member counts), '
+ 'NOT vote-level cohesion. '
+ 'When any target group returns memberCount: 0 the parliamentaryFragmentation and '
+ 'effectiveNumberOfParties fields are emitted as null to avoid a plausible-but-wrong score. '
+ 'Data source: European Parliament Open Data Portal.';
return `${base}${voteSection}${suffix}`;
}
/** Build methodologyNote for the coalition analysis report. */
function buildMethodologyNote(hasDoceoData: boolean): string {
if (hasDoceoData) {
return 'DOCEO XML roll-call vote data was fetched for recent plenary sessions; '
+ 'coalitionPairs[].cohesion is derived for comparable group pairs from majority-position alignment. '
+ 'coalitionPairs[].sizeSimilarityScore is a group-size ratio proxy and is NOT vote-level cohesion. '
+ 'Pairs with only split/tied positions can still have null cohesion/trend. '
+ 'trend is classified as CONVERGING (cohesion ≥ 0.6), DIVERGING (≤ 0.4), or STABLE when cohesion is available.';
}
return 'coalitionPairs[].sizeSimilarityScore is derived from group-size ratios '
+ '(min(sizeA, sizeB) / max(sizeA, sizeB)) and is NOT vote-level cohesion '
+ '(Hix/Noury/Roland sense). coalitionPairs[].cohesion and coalitionPairs[].trend '
+ 'are emitted as null because DOCEO XML vote data was unavailable at query time. '
+ 'The public input parameter `minimumCohesion` is preserved for backward compatibility '
+ 'but is currently applied as a threshold on coalitionPairs[].sizeSimilarityScore until '
+ 'vote-level cohesion data becomes available.';
}
/**
* Tool metadata for MCP registration
*/
export const analyzeCoalitionDynamicsToolMetadata = {
name: 'analyze_coalition_dynamics',
description: 'Analyze political group coalition dynamics including cohesion rates, cross-party alliances, defection rates, and stress indicators. Computes parliamentary fragmentation index, effective number of parties, grand coalition viability, and opposition strength. Uses CIA Coalition Analysis methodology.',
inputSchema: {
type: 'object' as const,
properties: {
groupIds: {
type: 'array',
items: { type: 'string' },
description: 'Political group identifiers to analyze (omit for all groups)',
minItems: 1,
maxItems: 10
},
dateFrom: {
type: 'string',
description: 'Analysis start date (YYYY-MM-DD format)',
pattern: '^\\d{4}-\\d{2}-\\d{2}$'
},
dateTo: {
type: 'string',
description: 'Analysis end date (YYYY-MM-DD format)',
pattern: '^\\d{4}-\\d{2}-\\d{2}$'
},
minimumCohesion: {
type: 'number',
description: 'Threshold for coalition allianceSignal detection (0-1, default 0.5). NOTE: Until per-MEP roll-call data is exposed by the EP Open Data Portal, this is applied to coalitionPairs[].sizeSimilarityScore (a group-size ratio proxy) — NOT to vote-level cohesion. The parameter name is preserved for backward compatibility.',
minimum: 0,
maximum: 1,
default: 0.5
}
}
}
};
|