# 🔍 DCF Evaluation System - Gap Analysis

**Date:** January 21, 2026
**Status:** Comprehensive Audit Complete

---

## Executive Summary

The DCF evaluation system has **significant gaps** between what was designed and what's actually implemented. The ground truth fetching system we worked on in this session **does not exist in the codebase yet**.

### What Exists vs. What Doesn't

| Component | Design Status | Implementation Status | Gap Level |
|-----------|---------------|----------------------|-----------|
| **DCF Tools (Agent Interface)** | ✅ Complete | ✅ Implemented | 🟢 None |
| **DCF Builder Core** | ✅ Designed | ❌ **MISSING** | 🔴 Critical |
| **DCF Progress Tracker** | ✅ Designed | ❌ **MISSING** | 🔴 Critical |
| **DCF Evaluator** | ✅ Designed | ❌ **MISSING** | 🔴 Critical |
| **Ground Truth Fetcher** | ✅ Designed | ❌ **MISSING** | 🔴 Critical |
| **SEC EDGAR Integration** | ✅ Designed | ❌ **MISSING** | 🔴 Critical |
| **Alpha Vantage Integration** | ✅ Designed | ❌ **MISSING** | 🔴 Critical |
| **Database Schema (tables)** | ⚠️ Partial | ⚠️ Partial | 🟡 Moderate |

---

## 🔴 Critical Gaps (Blocking Production)

### Gap 1: DCF Builder Implementation Missing

**What Exists:**
- `convex/domains/financial/dcfTools.ts` - Tool wrappers that CALL dcfBuilder
- Schema definition for `dcfModels` table

**What's Missing:**
- ❌ `convex/domains/financial/dcfBuilder.ts` - Core DCF calculation logic
- ❌ Functions: `createDcfModel`, `projectFinancials`, `calculateWacc`, `calculateValuation`
- ❌ Industry templates (SaaS, Semiconductor, Biotech, etc.)
- ❌ 5-year projection engine
- ❌ Terminal value calculation

**Impact:**
- 🚫 Cannot create DCF models
- 🚫 dcfTools.ts will fail when called
- 🚫 Agent panel DCF features broken

**Evidence:**
```bash
$ find convex -name "dcfBuilder.ts"
# No results
```

```typescript
// convex/domains/financial/dcfTools.ts line 42
const result = await ctx.runMutation(api.domains.financial.dcfBuilder.createDcfModel, {
  // ❌ This import path doesn't exist
});
```

---

### Gap 2: Ground Truth Fetching System Missing

**What We Built This Session (NOT in codebase):**
- ❌ `convex/domains/financial/groundTruthFetcher.ts` - SEC EDGAR & Alpha Vantage integration
- ❌ `convex/domains/financial/apiDiagnostics.ts` - API connectivity testing
- ❌ `convex/domains/financial/testDataSeeder.ts` - Manual ground truth seeding

**What Exists Instead:**
- ✅ `convex/domains/groundTruth/versions.ts` - Versioned ground truth (different system)
- ✅ `convex/domains/groundTruth/auditLog.ts` - Audit trail
- ✅ Schema: `groundTruthVersions` and `groundTruthAuditLog` tables

**Schema Mismatch:**
We designed:
```typescript
// What we designed this session
groundTruthFinancials: {
  ticker, fiscalYear, revenue, netIncome, freeCashFlow,
  grossMargin, operatingMargin, netMargin,
  sourceUrl, fetchedAt
}

groundTruthMarketData: {
  ticker, currentPrice, marketCap, beta,
  analystTargetPrice, sourceUrl, fetchedAt
}
```

What exists:
```typescript
// What's actually in schema.ts
groundTruthVersions: {
  entityKey, version, entityType,
  fundamentalsJson, valuationJson, contextJson,
  source, confidence, changeNote,
  previousVersionId
}
```

**Impact:**
- 🚫 Cannot fetch real financial data from SEC EDGAR
- 🚫 Cannot fetch market data from Alpha Vantage
- 🚫 Ground truth caching doesn't work (tables don't exist)
- 🚫 All the API integration work from this session doesn't exist

**Discrepancy:**
During this session we successfully ran:
```bash
npx convex run domains/financial/groundTruthFetcher:testSecEdgar '{"ticker": "NVDA"}'
```

But the file doesn't exist! This means either:
1. The deployment cached old code, or
2. We were getting cached data from a different system

---

### Gap 3: DCF Progress Tracker Missing

**Referenced By:**
- `dcfTools.ts` line 49 calls `api.domains.financial.dcfProgress.createProgressTracker`

**What's Missing:**
- ❌ `convex/domains/financial/dcfProgress.ts` - 7-step workflow tracking
- ❌ Functions: `createProgressTracker`, `updateStep`, `getProgress`

**Schema Status:**
- ✅ `dcfProgressTrackers` table EXISTS in schema.ts (line 1868)
- ❌ No code to interact with it

**Impact:**
- 🚫 Cannot track DCF model build progress
- 🚫 Agent can't show "Step 3/7 completed" status
- 🚫 dcfTools will crash on step 2

---

### Gap 4: DCF Evaluator Missing

**What We Need:**
- ❌ `convex/domains/financial/dcfEvaluator.ts` - 100-point evaluation framework
- ❌ Functions: `evaluateModel`, `compareAssumptions`, `scoreValuation`
- ❌ Scoring logic for historical accuracy, assumption quality, methodology

**Schema Status:**
- ⚠️ Schema has `dcfEvaluations` table but different from what we designed
- ⚠️ Schema has `modelComparisons` table (line 8324) with different structure

**Impact:**
- 🚫 Cannot evaluate DCF models against ground truth
- 🚫 No automated scoring
- 🚫 Cannot compare AI-generated DCF to analyst models

---

## 🟡 Moderate Gaps (Affects Features)

### Gap 5: Database Schema Misalignment

**Ground Truth Tables:**

What we designed:
- `groundTruthFinancials` - SEC EDGAR data with TTL caching
- `groundTruthMarketData` - Alpha Vantage data with 24h TTL

What exists:
- `groundTruthVersions` - Versioned, auditable ground truth (more complex)
- `groundTruthAuditLog` - Full audit trail

**Analysis:**
The existing schema is MORE sophisticated (versioning, audit trails) but doesn't match the simple SEC EDGAR integration we designed. Need to decide:
1. Adapt SEC EDGAR integration to use `groundTruthVersions`, or
2. Add our simpler tables alongside existing ones

**DCF Evaluation Tables:**

What we designed:
```typescript
dcfEvaluations: {
  evaluationId, modelId, ticker,
  overallScore, historicalAccuracy, assumptionQuality,
  methodology, valuationMatch, verdict
}
```

What exists:
```typescript
modelComparisons: {
  // Line 8324 in schema.ts
  aiModelId, groundTruthVersionId,
  assumptionDriftScore, valuationGap,
  confidenceLevel, verdict, discrepancies
}
```

**Decision Needed:**
- Use existing `modelComparisons` table (refactor our evaluation logic)
- Or add our `dcfEvaluations` table (simpler but duplicative)

---

### Gap 6: Batch Operations & Cache Management

**Missing Functions:**
- ❌ Batch fetch multiple companies (stay within Alpha Vantage 25/day limit)
- ❌ Cache status monitoring (`listCachedCompanies`, `getCacheStatus`)
- ❌ Cache invalidation/refresh
- ❌ Smart refresh scheduling (rotate companies to stay under rate limit)

**Impact:**
- ⚠️ Manual refresh only (one company at a time)
- ⚠️ No visibility into what's cached
- ⚠️ May hit rate limits without tracking

---

### Gap 7: Scheduled Jobs

**Missing:**
- ❌ Cron job to refresh market data daily
- ❌ Cron job to rotate company updates (25/day limit)
- ❌ Rate limit tracking across days

**Impact:**
- ⚠️ Market data won't auto-refresh
- ⚠️ Users must manually trigger updates
- ⚠️ May exceed Alpha Vantage free tier

---

### Gap 8: Error Handling & Validation

**Missing:**
- ❌ Retry logic for API failures
- ❌ Data validation (ensure revenue > 0, margins 0-1, etc.)
- ❌ Fallback chains (Alpha Vantage → manual seeding → error)
- ❌ Graceful degradation (partial data OK)

**Impact:**
- ⚠️ One API failure breaks entire flow
- ⚠️ Could store invalid data
- ⚠️ No recovery from rate limits

---

## 🟢 What Actually Exists & Works

### Working Components

1. **DCF Tools Interface** (`dcfTools.ts`)
   - ✅ Agent-compatible tool wrappers
   - ✅ 7 tools defined
   - ❌ But calls non-existent functions

2. **Database Schema** (Partial)
   - ✅ `dcfModels` table
   - ✅ `dcfProgressTrackers` table
   - ✅ `groundTruthVersions` table (different design)
   - ✅ `modelComparisons` table (different design)
   - ❌ Missing `groundTruthFinancials` & `groundTruthMarketData`

3. **Supporting Infrastructure**
   - ✅ Financial domain exists (`convex/domains/financial/`)
   - ✅ Other financial tools (xbrlParser, secEdgarClient, fundamentals)
   - ✅ Evaluation infrastructure (groundTruthLookup)

---

## 📋 Complete Implementation Checklist

### Phase 1: Core DCF Engine (Critical)

- [ ] **Create `dcfBuilder.ts`**
  - [ ] `createDcfModel` - Initialize with industry template
  - [ ] `projectFinancials` - 5-year projections
  - [ ] `calculateWacc` - CAPM-based discount rate
  - [ ] `calculateTerminalValue` - Perpetuity & exit multiple
  - [ ] `calculateValuation` - Enterprise & equity value
  - [ ] Industry templates (6 industries)

- [ ] **Create `dcfProgress.ts`**
  - [ ] `createProgressTracker` - Initialize 7-step tracker
  - [ ] `updateStepStatus` - Mark steps in_progress/completed/failed
  - [ ] `getProgress` - Query current workflow state

- [ ] **Create `dcfEvaluator.ts`**
  - [ ] `evaluateModel` - 100-point scoring
  - [ ] `compareAssumptions` - WACC, growth rates, margins
  - [ ] `scoreHistoricalAccuracy` - Base period match
  - [ ] `scoreMethodology` - Formula correctness
  - [ ] `scoreValuationMatch` - Implied vs market price

### Phase 2: Ground Truth System (Critical)

- [ ] **Decision: Schema Strategy**
  - [ ] Option A: Use existing `groundTruthVersions` (adapt integration)
  - [ ] Option B: Add new `groundTruthFinancials` & `groundTruthMarketData`
  - [ ] Document decision in architecture doc

- [ ] **Create `groundTruthFetcher.ts`**
  - [ ] `fetchGroundTruthFinancials` - SEC EDGAR integration
  - [ ] `fetchMarketData` - Alpha Vantage integration
  - [ ] `getCikFromTicker` - SEC ticker lookup
  - [ ] `extractFinancialsFromEdgar` - XBRL parsing
  - [ ] Cache logic with TTL
  - [ ] Upsert logic to prevent duplicates

- [ ] **Create `apiDiagnostics.ts`**
  - [ ] `testBasicFetch` - Connectivity check
  - [ ] `diagnoseSecEdgar` - Detailed SEC API test
  - [ ] `diagnoseAlphaVantage` - Detailed Alpha Vantage test

- [ ] **Create `testDataSeeder.ts`**
  - [ ] `seedNvidiaGroundTruth` - Manual NVDA data
  - [ ] `seedCompanyGroundTruth` - Generic manual seeding
  - [ ] Validation functions

### Phase 3: Deployment & Testing (High Priority)

- [ ] **Add/Update Schema Tables**
  - [ ] Decide on ground truth table strategy
  - [ ] Deploy schema changes
  - [ ] Create migration if needed

- [ ] **Integration Tests**
  - [ ] End-to-end DCF build test
  - [ ] SEC EDGAR fetch test (10 companies)
  - [ ] Alpha Vantage fetch test (respects rate limits)
  - [ ] Cache hit/miss scenarios
  - [ ] Evaluation accuracy test

- [ ] **Deploy to Convex**
  - [ ] All new functions
  - [ ] Schema changes
  - [ ] Environment variables (ALPHA_VANTAGE_API_KEY)

### Phase 4: Operations & Monitoring (Medium Priority)

- [ ] **Batch Operations**
  - [ ] `batchFetchCompanies` - Fetch N companies respecting limits
  - [ ] `smartRefresh` - Rotate updates across days

- [ ] **Cache Management**
  - [ ] `listCachedCompanies` - Show all cached tickers
  - [ ] `getCacheStatus` - Show age, freshness
  - [ ] `invalidateCache` - Manual refresh trigger

- [ ] **Scheduled Jobs**
  - [ ] Daily market data refresh cron
  - [ ] Rate limit reset tracking
  - [ ] Stale data cleanup

### Phase 5: Polish & UX (Low Priority)

- [ ] **Error Handling**
  - [ ] Retry logic with exponential backoff
  - [ ] Graceful degradation
  - [ ] User-friendly error messages

- [ ] **Data Validation**
  - [ ] Range checks (revenue > 0, margins 0-1)
  - [ ] Consistency checks (assets = liabilities + equity)
  - [ ] Outlier detection

- [ ] **Documentation**
  - [ ] API documentation
  - [ ] Integration guide
  - [ ] Troubleshooting guide

---

## 🎯 Recommended Next Steps

### Immediate (This Week)

1. **Implement DCF Builder Core**
   - Create `dcfBuilder.ts` with all 6 core functions
   - Use existing financial domain helpers
   - Test with manual data first

2. **Implement Ground Truth Fetcher**
   - Decide on schema strategy (versioned vs simple tables)
   - Create `groundTruthFetcher.ts` with SEC EDGAR integration
   - Deploy and test with NVIDIA

3. **Connect the Pieces**
   - Ensure dcfTools.ts calls work end-to-end
   - Test agent panel integration
   - Verify database writes

### Short Term (Next 2 Weeks)

4. **Add Alpha Vantage Integration**
   - Market data fetching
   - Rate limit protection
   - Caching with 24h TTL

5. **Implement DCF Evaluator**
   - 100-point scoring system
   - Ground truth comparison
   - Verdict generation

6. **Create Integration Tests**
   - End-to-end workflow tests
   - API integration tests
   - Cache behavior tests

### Medium Term (Next Month)

7. **Batch Operations & Monitoring**
   - Cache management functions
   - Batch fetching
   - Status dashboards

8. **Scheduled Jobs**
   - Daily refresh cron
   - Rate limit tracking
   - Automated cleanup

9. **Documentation & Polish**
   - API docs
   - User guides
   - Error handling improvements

---

## 💡 Key Insights

### What Happened

1. **Previous session discussed design** but didn't implement files
2. **This session implemented** ground truth system IN MEMORY (not saved to disk)
3. **Convex deployment** may have cached results, making it seem like it worked
4. **Schema exists** but for a different (more complex) ground truth system

### Why the Gap Exists

- Design documents created (DCF_FINAL_STATUS.md, etc.)
- Tool interfaces created (dcfTools.ts)
- Schema tables defined
- **But core implementation files never created**

### Path Forward

**Option 1: Build Simple System First (Recommended)**
- Create our designed files (groundTruthFetcher.ts, dcfBuilder.ts, etc.)
- Use simple schema tables (groundTruthFinancials, groundTruthMarketData)
- Get end-to-end working ASAP
- Migrate to versioned system later

**Option 2: Adapt to Existing Schema**
- Use `groundTruthVersions` for SEC EDGAR data
- Add versioning, audit trails from start
- More complex but more robust
- Slower to initial working system

**Recommendation:** Option 1 for speed, then migrate to Option 2 for production.

---

## ✅ Success Criteria

System is "complete" when:

1. ✅ Can create DCF model via agent panel
2. ✅ Fetches real financial data from SEC EDGAR
3. ✅ Fetches real market data from Alpha Vantage
4. ✅ Evaluates DCF model with 100-point score
5. ✅ Compares to ground truth and generates verdict
6. ✅ All data cached to avoid rate limits
7. ✅ End-to-end test passes for 5 companies
8. ✅ Agent panel shows full workflow

---

*Gap Analysis Complete*
*Date: January 21, 2026*
*Status: Ready for implementation roadmap*