---
title: "Business Case"
description: "Business case analysis with ROI, NPV, IRR, payback period, and TCO calculations for investment decisions. Use when building financial justification, cost-benefit analysis, build-vs-buy comparisons, or sensitivity analysis."
---

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# Business Case

Financial frameworks for investment justification and decision support.

## When to Use Each Framework

| Framework | Use When |
|-----------|----------|
| **ROI** | Quick sanity check; time value of money doesn't matter much |
| **NPV** | Multi-year investments; gold standard for GO/NO-GO |
| **IRR** | Comparing projects competing for the same budget |
| **Payback Period** | Leadership asks "how fast do we break even?" |
| **TCO** | Build vs. buy; total cost including hidden/ongoing costs |
| **Sensitivity Analysis** | High uncertainty; need to stress-test assumptions |

## Decision Tree

```
Is the investment multi-year?
  YES → Use NPV (+ IRR to compare alternatives)
  NO  → ROI is sufficient

Is this a build vs. buy decision?
  YES → TCO comparison across all three options
  NO  → Skip TCO, use NPV/ROI

Are assumptions uncertain?
  YES → Add sensitivity analysis (3 scenarios)
  NO  → Base case only
```

## Quick Reference Formulas

```
ROI = (Net Benefits - Total Costs) / Total Costs × 100%

NPV = Sum(Cash Flow_t / (1 + r)^t) - Initial Investment
  r = discount rate (10% enterprise, 15-20% growth, 25-40% startup)
  Decision: Accept if NPV > 0

IRR = discount rate where NPV = 0
  Decision: Accept if IRR > hurdle rate

Payback Period = Initial Investment / Annual Cash Flow
  Benchmarks: SaaS 6-12 mo, Enterprise platform 12-24 mo, Infra 24-36 mo

TCO = CAPEX + (OPEX × years) + Opportunity Cost + Hidden Costs
```

## Business Case Template

```markdown
# Business Case: [Project Name]

## Executive Summary
[2-3 sentences: what we're investing in and expected return]

## Financial Analysis

### Investment Required
| Item | One-Time | Annual |
|------|----------|--------|
| Development | $X | |
| License / SaaS | | $X |
| Implementation | $X | |
| Training | $X | |
| Maintenance | | $X |
| **Total** | **$X** | **$X** |

### Expected Benefits
| Benefit | Annual Value | Confidence |
|---------|--------------|------------|
| Time savings (X hrs × $Y/hr) | $X | High |
| Error reduction | $X | Medium |
| Revenue uplift | $X | Low |
| **Total** | **$X** | |

### Key Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| 3-Year TCO | $X |
| NPV (10% discount) | $X |
| IRR | X% |
| Payback Period | X months |
| ROI | X% |

## Sensitivity Analysis
| Scenario | Discount Rate | Year 1 Benefits | NPV |
|----------|---------------|-----------------|-----|
| Base case | 10% | $X | $X |
| Conservative | 15% | $X × 0.75 | $X |
| Optimistic | 8% | $X × 1.25 | $X |

## Risk Analysis
| Risk | Probability | Impact | Mitigation |
|------|-------------|--------|------------|
| | | | |

## Recommendation
[GO / NO-GO] — [one-sentence rationale]
```

## TCO: Build vs. Buy vs. Partner

See [rules/business-cost-benefit.md](rules/business-cost-benefit.md) for the full 3-year TCO template and hidden cost checklist.

Key hidden costs to never omit:

| Category | Build | Buy |
|----------|-------|-----|
| Opportunity cost | Yes — team blocked from other work | No |
| Switching costs | N/A | Yes — vendor lock-in |
| Downtime risk | You own uptime | Partial SLA coverage |
| Security/compliance | Your responsibility | Shared |

## Common Pitfalls

| Pitfall | Mitigation |
|---------|------------|
| Simple ROI without time value | Always use NPV for multi-year decisions |
| Ignoring soft costs (training, change mgmt) | Add 30% buffer to implementation estimates |
| Optimistic benefit estimates | Use conservative estimates, document assumptions |
| Sunk cost included in forward analysis | Evaluate future costs/benefits only |
| No sensitivity analysis | Always test conservative + optimistic scenarios |

## References

- [ROI & Financial Metrics](rules/business-roi.md) — NPV, IRR, payback period formulas with code examples
- [Cost-Benefit & TCO](rules/business-cost-benefit.md) — Build vs. buy TCO template, hidden costs, sensitivity analysis
- [ROI Calculation Guide](references/roi-calculation-guide.md) — Detailed cost breakdown (CAPEX/OPEX/opportunity cost)
- [Build-Buy-Partner Decision](references/build-buy-partner-decision.md) — Scoring matrix across 5 dimensions

## Related Skills

- `ork:market-sizing` — Size the opportunity before building the business case
- `ork:competitive-analysis` — Assess competitive context and moat for the investment
- `ork:product-frameworks` — Full product strategy toolkit (prioritization, OKRs, personas)

---

Version: 1.0.0


---

## Rules (2)

### Perform comprehensive cost-benefit analysis including build vs buy TCO comparisons — HIGH


# Cost-Benefit & Total Cost of Ownership

## Build vs. Buy TCO Comparison

```markdown
## Build Option (3-Year TCO)

### Year 1
| Category | Cost |
|----------|------|
| Development team (4 FTEs x $150K) | $600,000 |
| Infrastructure setup | $50,000 |
| Tools & licenses | $20,000 |
| **Year 1 Total** | **$670,000** |

### Year 2-3 (Maintenance)
| Category | Annual Cost |
|----------|-------------|
| Maintenance team (2 FTEs) | $300,000 |
| Infrastructure | $60,000 |
| Technical debt | $50,000 |
| **Annual Total** | **$410,000** |

### 3-Year Build TCO: $1,490,000

---

## Buy Option (3-Year TCO)

| Category | Annual Cost |
|----------|-------------|
| SaaS license (100 users x $500) | $50,000 |
| Implementation (Year 1 only) | $100,000 |
| Training | $20,000 |
| Integration maintenance | $30,000 |
| **Year 1** | **$200,000** |
| **Year 2-3** | **$100,000/year** |

### 3-Year Buy TCO: $400,000
```

## Hidden Costs to Include

| Category | Build | Buy |
|----------|-------|-----|
| Opportunity cost | Yes - team could work on other things | No |
| Learning curve | Yes - building expertise | Yes - learning vendor |
| Switching costs | N/A | Yes - vendor lock-in |
| Downtime risk | Yes - you own uptime | Partial - SLA coverage |
| Security/compliance | Yes - your responsibility | Shared - vendor handles some |

## Business Case Template

```markdown
# Business Case: [Project Name]

## Executive Summary
[2-3 sentence summary of investment and expected return]

## Financial Analysis

### Investment Required
| Item | One-Time | Annual |
|------|----------|--------|
| Software license | | $X |
| Implementation | $X | |
| Training | $X | |
| Integration | $X | $X |
| **Total** | **$X** | **$X** |

### Expected Benefits
| Benefit | Annual Value | Confidence |
|---------|--------------|------------|
| Time savings (X hrs x $Y/hr) | $X | High |
| Error reduction | $X | Medium |
| Revenue increase | $X | Low |
| **Total** | **$X** | |

### Key Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| 3-Year TCO | $X |
| 3-Year Benefits | $X |
| NPV (10% discount) | $X |
| IRR | X% |
| Payback Period | X months |
| ROI | X% |

## Risk Analysis
| Risk | Probability | Impact | Mitigation |
|------|-------------|--------|------------|
| | | | |

## Recommendation
[GO / NO-GO with rationale]
```

## Sensitivity Analysis

Test how results change with different assumptions.

| Scenario | Discount Rate | Year 1 Benefits | NPV |
|----------|---------------|-----------------|-----|
| Base case | 10% | $200,000 | $258,157 |
| Conservative | 15% | $150,000 | $102,345 |
| Optimistic | 8% | $250,000 | $412,890 |
| Pessimistic | 12% | $120,000 | $32,456 |

## Cost Breakdown Framework

### One-Time Costs (CAPEX)

```
Development Costs
+-- Engineering hours x hourly rate
+-- Design/UX hours x hourly rate
+-- QA/Testing hours x hourly rate
+-- Project management overhead (15-20%)
+-- Infrastructure setup
```

### Recurring Costs (OPEX)

```
Operational Costs (Annual)
+-- Infrastructure (hosting, compute)
+-- Maintenance (10-20% of dev cost)
+-- Support (tickets x cost/ticket)
+-- Monitoring/observability
+-- Security/compliance
```

**Incorrect — Ignoring hidden costs and opportunity cost:**
```markdown
## Cost Analysis
Total development cost: $500,000
Expected benefit: $1M over 3 years
ROI: 100% - APPROVED
```

**Correct — Comprehensive TCO with hidden costs:**
```markdown
## 3-Year TCO Analysis
Development: $500,000
Maintenance (Years 2-3): $300,000/year = $600,000
Opportunity cost (team could build $800K revenue feature): $800,000
Total TCO: $1,900,000

Benefits: $1,000,000
Net: -$900,000 - REJECTED
```


### Calculate accurate financial metrics using NPV, IRR, and ROI with time value — HIGH


# ROI & Financial Metrics

Financial frameworks for justifying investments and evaluating projects.

## Return on Investment (ROI)

```
ROI = (Net Benefits - Total Costs) / Total Costs x 100%
```

**Example:**
```
Project cost: $500,000
Annual benefits: $200,000 over 5 years

Total benefits: $1,000,000
ROI = ($1,000,000 - $500,000) / $500,000 x 100% = 100%
```

**Limitation:** Does not account for time value of money.

## Net Present Value (NPV)

Gold standard for project evaluation -- discounts future cash flows to present value.

```
NPV = Sum(Cash Flow_t / (1 + r)^t) - Initial Investment
```

```python
def calculate_npv(
    initial_investment: float,
    cash_flows: list[float],
    discount_rate: float = 0.10  # 10% typical
) -> float:
    npv = -initial_investment
    for t, cf in enumerate(cash_flows, start=1):
        npv += cf / ((1 + discount_rate) ** t)
    return npv

# Example: $500K investment, $200K/year for 5 years
npv = calculate_npv(500_000, [200_000] * 5, 0.10)
# NPV = $258,157 (positive = good investment)
```

**Decision Rule:**
- NPV > 0: Accept (creates value)
- NPV &lt; 0: Reject (destroys value)
- NPV = 0: Indifferent

## Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

The discount rate at which NPV equals zero.

```python
def calculate_irr(cash_flows: list[float]) -> float:
    """cash_flows[0] is initial investment (negative)"""
    from scipy.optimize import brentq

    def npv_at_rate(r):
        return sum(cf / (1 + r) ** t for t, cf in enumerate(cash_flows))

    return brentq(npv_at_rate, -0.99, 10.0)

# Example: -$500K initial, then $200K/year for 5 years
irr = calculate_irr([-500_000, 200_000, 200_000, 200_000, 200_000, 200_000])
# IRR ~ 28.6%
```

**Decision Rule:**
- IRR > hurdle rate: Accept
- IRR &lt; hurdle rate: Reject

**Typical Hurdle Rates:**
- Conservative enterprise: 10-12%
- Growth company: 15-20%
- Startup: 25-40%

## Payback Period

```
Payback Period = Initial Investment / Annual Cash Flow
```

**Typical Expectations:**
- SaaS investments: 6-12 months
- Enterprise platforms: 12-24 months
- Infrastructure: 24-36 months

## Common Pitfalls

| Pitfall | Mitigation |
|---------|------------|
| Overestimating benefits | Use conservative estimates, document assumptions |
| Ignoring soft costs | Include training, change management, productivity dip |
| Underestimating timeline | Add 30-50% buffer to implementation estimates |
| Sunk cost fallacy | Evaluate future costs/benefits only |
| Confirmation bias | Have skeptic review the case |

**Incorrect — Using simple ROI without time value of money:**
```markdown
Investment: $500,000
Total benefits over 5 years: $1,000,000
ROI = ($1M - $500K) / $500K = 100% - APPROVED
```

**Correct — Using NPV to account for time value:**
```python
npv = calculate_npv(
    initial_investment=500_000,
    cash_flows=[200_000] * 5,
    discount_rate=0.10
)
# NPV = $258,157 (positive, but much less than naive ROI)
# Accept if NPV > 0 and meets hurdle rate
```



---

## References (2)

### Build Buy Partner Decision

# Build vs Buy vs Partner Decision Framework

Systematic approach for evaluating capability acquisition options.

## Decision Matrix

| Factor | BUILD | BUY | PARTNER |
|--------|-------|-----|---------|
| **Core differentiator?** | ✅ Yes | ❌ No | ⚠️ Maybe |
| **Competitive advantage?** | ✅ Yes | ❌ No | ⚠️ Depends |
| **In-house expertise?** | ✅ Have | ❌ Lack | ⚠️ Some |
| **Time to market critical?** | ❌ Slow | ✅ Fast | ✅ Fast |
| **Budget constrained?** | ❌ Higher upfront | ✅ Lower upfront | ⚠️ Varies |
| **Long-term control needed?** | ✅ Full | ❌ Limited | ⚠️ Negotiated |
| **Customization required?** | ✅ Full | ⚠️ Limited | ⚠️ Depends |

## Scoring Template

```markdown
## Build vs Buy vs Partner: [Capability Name]

### Scoring (1-5 each dimension)

| Dimension | BUILD | BUY | PARTNER |
|-----------|-------|-----|---------|
| Strategic Importance | | | |
| Capability Maturity | | | |
| Time to Value | | | |
| Total Cost (3yr) | | | |
| Risk Level | | | |
| **TOTAL** | | | |

### Recommendation: [BUILD/BUY/PARTNER]

### Rationale:
[Explain the decision]

### Conditions:
- [ ] [Condition 1]
- [ ] [Condition 2]
```

## Cost Considerations

### BUILD Costs
- Development (engineering time)
- Opportunity cost (what else could be built)
- Maintenance (10-20% annual)
- Infrastructure
- Hiring/training

### BUY Costs
- License/subscription fees
- Integration development
- Vendor lock-in risk
- Customization limitations
- Annual price increases

### PARTNER Costs
- Revenue share
- Dependency risk
- Integration complexity
- Coordination overhead
- Brand association risk

## Decision Tree

```
Is this a core differentiator?
├── YES → BUILD (protects competitive advantage)
└── NO → Is there a mature solution available?
         ├── YES → BUY (fastest time to value)
         └── NO → Is there a strategic partner?
                  ├── YES → PARTNER (shared risk/reward)
                  └── NO → BUILD (must create capability)
```

## Red Flags by Option

### BUILD Red Flags
- No in-house expertise
- Underestimated complexity
- "We can do it better"
- Core expertise elsewhere

### BUY Red Flags
- Heavy customization needed
- Vendor lock-in concerns
- Poor vendor track record
- Integration nightmares

### PARTNER Red Flags
- Misaligned incentives
- Competitor partnerships
- Unclear value split
- Dependency on partner roadmap

## 2026 Best Practices

- Revisit decisions quarterly (market changes fast)
- Consider AI/ML tool availability before building
- Evaluate open-source alternatives
- Factor in security/compliance requirements
- Include exit strategy in evaluation


### Roi Calculation Guide

# ROI Calculation Guide

Comprehensive guide for calculating Return on Investment for product decisions.

## Basic ROI Formula

```
ROI = ((Net Benefit) / Total Investment) × 100%

Net Benefit = Total Benefits - Total Costs
```

## Detailed Cost Breakdown

### One-Time Costs (CAPEX)

```
Development Costs
├── Engineering hours × hourly rate
├── Design/UX hours × hourly rate
├── QA/Testing hours × hourly rate
├── Project management overhead (15-20%)
└── Infrastructure setup

Example:
- 4 engineers × 40 hrs/week × 4 weeks × $100/hr = $64,000
- 1 designer × 40 hrs/week × 2 weeks × $90/hr = $7,200
- QA (20% of eng) = $12,800
- PM overhead (15%) = $12,600
Total Development: $96,600
```

### Recurring Costs (OPEX)

```
Operational Costs (Annual)
├── Infrastructure (hosting, compute)
├── Maintenance (10-20% of dev cost)
├── Support (tickets × cost/ticket)
├── Monitoring/observability
└── Security/compliance

Example:
- Infrastructure: $12,000/year
- Maintenance (15%): $14,490/year
- Support: 50 tickets/month × $20 = $12,000/year
Total Annual: $38,490
```

### Opportunity Costs

What else could we do with these resources?

- Delayed features (revenue impact)
- Team context switching
- Technical debt not addressed
- Market timing missed

## Benefit Categories

### Quantifiable Revenue Benefits

```
Revenue Benefits
├── New customer acquisition
│   └── New customers × ARPU × 12 months
├── Upsell/expansion
│   └── Existing customers × upsell rate × additional ARPU
├── Reduced churn
│   └── Customers retained × ARPU × months retained
└── Price increase enablement
    └── Customers × price increase
```

### Quantifiable Cost Savings

```
Cost Savings
├── Reduced support tickets
│   └── Tickets reduced × cost/ticket
├── Faster onboarding
│   └── Time saved × support hourly rate
├── Automation savings
│   └── Hours automated × employee hourly rate
└── Infrastructure efficiency
    └── Resources freed × cost
```

### Intangible Benefits

Document but don't include in ROI calculation:
- Market positioning
- Developer experience
- Brand/reputation
- Technical foundation for future features

## Example ROI Calculation

```markdown
## Investment: Search Feature Improvement

### Costs (3-Year Total)
| Category | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Total |
|----------|--------|--------|--------|-------|
| Development | $96,600 | $0 | $0 | $96,600 |
| Infrastructure | $12,000 | $12,600 | $13,230 | $37,830 |
| Maintenance | $14,490 | $15,215 | $15,975 | $45,680 |
| **Total Costs** | $123,090 | $27,815 | $29,205 | **$180,110** |

### Benefits (3-Year Total)
| Category | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Total |
|----------|--------|--------|--------|-------|
| New Revenue | $120,000 | $180,000 | $240,000 | $540,000 |
| Cost Savings | $36,000 | $42,000 | $48,000 | $126,000 |
| **Total Benefits** | $156,000 | $222,000 | $288,000 | **$666,000** |

### ROI Calculation
- Total Investment: $180,110
- Total Benefits: $666,000
- Net Benefit: $485,890
- ROI: (485,890 / 180,110) × 100% = **270%**
- Payback Period: $180,110 / ($666,000/36 months) = **9.7 months**
```

## Payback Period

```
Payback Period = Total Investment / Monthly Net Benefit

Good: < 12 months
Acceptable: 12-24 months
Risky: > 24 months
```

## Sensitivity Analysis

Always calculate three scenarios:

| Scenario | Assumption | ROI |
|----------|------------|-----|
| Conservative (P10) | 50% of expected benefits | X% |
| Base Case (P50) | Expected benefits | Y% |
| Optimistic (P90) | 150% of expected benefits | Z% |

## Common Mistakes

| Mistake | Correction |
|---------|------------|
| Forgetting opportunity cost | Include what else could be built |
| Single-point estimates | Use ranges and scenarios |
| Ignoring maintenance | Add 10-20% annually |
| Counting intangibles | Keep separate from hard ROI |
| Not discounting future | Apply discount rate for NPV |

